Falcon Points
Astros moves set them up for contention this year and beyond
Aug 1, 2019, 1:23 pm
Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images
Yordan Alvarez
The Astros made the biggest splash at the trade deadline, acquiring another legitimate ace starter in Zack Greinke. The move makes them the clear favorites to come out of the American League, but also set them up for the future. In addition, they made two other deals to bolster a roster that is now healthy and already loaded. A look at what the moves mean:
Loaded for the stretch in 2019
The Astros might have the best rotation in baseball. They certainly will for the playoffs, when the rotation shortens to three or four pitchers. This is how they will stack up:
Justin Verlander, 14-4, 2.73 ERA
Gerrit Cole 12-5, 2.94
Zack Greinke, 10-4, 2.90
Wade Miley, 9-4, 3.06
Verlander (1), Cole (4) and Miley (6) are all top six in ERA in the American League. Greinke would rank third if he put up the same numbers in the AL. All that means the Astros now have four of the top seven pitchers in the entire American League.
Oh, and with everyone healthy? The lineup is a monster. George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel...That's seven deep of All-Star caliber players.
Throw in a bullpen that when healthy is terrific in the eighth and ninth innings, and there simply is not a better day-in, day-out team in baseball.
The "other" guys
The Astros also re-acquired Martin Maldonado to beef up the catching. They now have two legitimate major league catchers on the roster. Aaron Sanchez and Joe Biagini add some pitching depth. Biagini adds some more help to the pen, while Sanchez is an intriguing project. At one time, he looked like one of the best young pitchers in baseball. But he has struggled mightily the past few seasons, including this year. But if the Astros can get him right, he could become a nice longterm piece in the rotation, or at least help in the pen. If not? The price was low. It is a low risk, high reward move.
Oh, the future...
The Greinke move also acts as insurance in case Cole leaves in free agency. Of the key players, only Cole and Miley are not under team control next season. So the Astros will be serious contenders in 2020, too. Even if they lose Cole, they will have a top three in the rotation of Verlander/Greinke/Lance McCullers. And odds are they bring at least one of Cole and Miley back. If not? Maybe they fix Sanchez. Maybe Forrest Whitley is finally ready. If they do bring them both back? Next year's rotation will be even better. That's a scary thought. And the everyday lineup will remain virtually the same. If the Astros need to clear some money, they can move Josh Reddick and his $13 million per year if Kyle Tucker is ready. And let's not dismiss the Verlander factor. His acquisition made it cool to be an Astro. Greinke chose to be in Houston and turned down the Yankees. Players want to be in Houston now.
And let's also give the Astros credit for the off-season signings of Brantley and Miley. They were low-risk, manageable contracts that have more than paid off. While Miley will command more money in the off-season, Brantley is back in 2020 at a reasonable number. This team is going to be good for a long time.
The dearly departed
The Astros did give up some assets. But the reality is, trades are supposed to benefit both teams. It also should benefit the players. The Tony Kemp for Maldonado deal helped the Astros and the Cubs. Maldonado was a luxury in Chicago; Kemp had already been designated for assignment. Both should benefit their new teams. As for the Toronto trade, Derek Fisher never quite worked out in Houston and was blocked by Myles Straw and Tucker. Maybe he develops, and at least he gets a chance. As for the Greinke trade? Seth Beer may become a good player. But will he better than Alvarez? J.B. Buskakas is highly regarded but has yet to develop. Corbin Martin just had Tommy John surgery. So who knows? The Astros got a legitimate ace. Even if those players become solid major leaguers, it was worth it.
The bottom line
For the first time, Houston has one of the best run organizations in all of sports. The Rockets try and keep taking chances and maybe it will work out. The Texans? Wasting the careers of DeAndre Hopkins, J.J. Watt and Deshaun Watson by failing to help them. The Astros don't do everything right, but when they make a mistake they correct it. They make bold, thoughtful moves. Will they win another World Series? Maybe. Win or lose, however, they make the right decisions.
And Houston fan should be happy for it.
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Now that spring training is officially underway, we're able to make some observations about how the Astros 2025 roster is taking shape.
Houston's starting rotation is basically set, but we got to see Hayden Wesneski make his first start in an Astro uniform. Wesneski pitched two innings against the Mets on Tuesday, allowing one run with three strikeouts.
He's working on a curveball that's a new pitch for his repertoire, and he saw some success with it. Hopefully, adding this pitch will help keep batters off balance (especially left-handed hitters) and help elevate his game. Which is nothing new for the Astros, who have a history of helping pitchers get to the next level.
Forrest Whitley also looked good, pitching a clean inning and finishing off his final hitter with a 97 mph fastball. Whitley finally realizing his potential in the big leagues could be a huge deal for the Astros, as they're looking to lighten the workload for Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader this season.
Hader in particular could benefit from this adjustment, as he was much worse when pitching in non-save situations last season. An easy fix with Hader could be trying to limit his workload to mostly save situations. That way, you get the most out of him and achieve the goal of him pitching less innings this year.
The Houston Chronicle's Matt Kawahara wrote about Hader's struggles pitching when games were tied or Houston was trailing.
“Hader converted 34 of 38 save chances but faced more batters in non-save situations (142) than in save situations (136), a sharp pivot from his previous few seasons. Opponents slugged .271 against him in save situations and .411 in non-save situations, while his ERA was more than two runs higher (4.98) in the latter.”
And while it's easy to say “suck it up, you're getting paid a fortune to pitch,” if he's not having success in those situations, and you're looking to back off his workload, this seems like an obvious way to pivot. He's under contract for another four seasons, so the Astros are right to want to be careful with him.
Astros plate discipline
Manager Joe Espada has made it very clear that he would like his offense to see more pitches this season. And we're seeing a stark difference in the approaches from the newly acquired players (Isaac Paredes, Christian Walker) and Houston's returning hitters.
Keep in mind, Paredes was first in pitches per plate appearance last season, and Walker was 10th.
So it shouldn't come as a surprise that Paredes and Walker both worked a full count in their first at-bats on Tuesday, while Mauricio Dubon, Yainer Diaz, and Chas McCormick swung at every pitch in their first at-bats.
Hopefully the new blood in the clubhouse will rub off on the rest of the Astros lineup, which is full of free swingers, especially with Alex Bregman now playing for Boston.
Which is why we're so excited about Cam Smith's early results. While we're super pumped about his two home runs on Tuesday, we're equally impressed that he walked in his first two at-bats this spring. If anyone would naturally be jumping out of their shoes to make a strong first impression, you would think it's the guy that was traded for Kyle Tucker. But Smith was patient, and he was rewarded for it.
What is Dana Brown saying privately?
Just last offseason, Brown was talking about extending Tucker and Bregman while also signing Hader to a shocking 5-year, $95 million deal. Plus, the team signed Jose Altuve to a whopping $150 million extension. Fast-forward one year and Tucker has been traded, Bregman left in free agency, and Ryan Pressly was dealt in a salary dump. Safe to say, his vision for the ball club has changed drastically in one season. Welcome to baseball economics under Jim Crane!
We're just scratching the surface on everything covered in the video above. Be sure to hit play to watch the full conversation!
The countdown to Opening Day is on. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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