WADE MILEY HAS HAD SEVERAL BAD OUTINGS IN A ROW, GIVING EVERYONE CAUSE FOR CONCERN

Astros need to figure out fourth starter for playoffs

Astros need to figure out fourth starter for playoffs
Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images

For most of the year Wade Miley has been just what the doctor ordered in replacing Dallas Kuechel in the starting rotation and doing so with great numbers and results. Unfortunately everything took a turn for the worse when Miley and the Astros entered the month of September. Two straight home starts had Miley giving up 7 runs in the first inning of both games and leaving before he could toe the rubber for inning number 2. On the road the results were slightly better, but not enough to keep observers from wondering if there was a real problem brewing for the player and the team as they head to the post season? Miley has an ERA of 22.06 in September and has seen his overall ERA go up almost a full point in the last three weeks. In his most recent start he gave up 4 earned runs on 4 hits in one inning of work before being removed by Manager AJ Hinch. As good as Miley was for most of the season, his performance over the final month of the season has everyone involved searching for answers and wondering what they should do to avoid any similar issues that could severely hinder their run for a second World Series title in the last three years. As much as you like Miley and want to believe he can figure it out and get right before the A.L. Divisional Series gets under way early next month, time is running out and a tough decision may have to be made. If Miley doesn't get the ball for Game 4 of a playoff series, who could step up and take over the role while holding down the fort?

If this was last year, the answer would be easy as Brad Peacock has proven himself to be an above average weapon for this team whether it be out of the bullpen or in a starting role. He has pitched in the playoffs before and knows what it takes to pitch on the biggest stage, when the lights are at their brightest. That was then, this is now and the here and now says Peacock has struggled with injuries all season long with multiple stints on the IL, and after recently returning from his latest appearance on the injury report there doesn't seem to be enough time to get him "stretched out" and prepared with the endurance and arm strength required of a major league starting pitcher. Expect to see him on the playoff roster and ready for long and short relief out of the pen, but probably not as a starter filling in for Miley.

Collin McHugh/Facebook

Another former starter experiencing the same struggles and appearances on the injured list as Peacock is Colin McHugh. Together the two right-handers are living a parallel universe that has seen them both go from effective and trusted arms in the bullpen and rotation to a two-man MASH unit that can't be counted on based on health concerns alone. McHugh also has seen extended time on the IL and has yet to return to the active roster for the final few weeks of the season. The simple truth is, there is too much risk involved to roll the dice and hope for the potential rewards. As good as McHugh has been and for as much trust as AJ Hinch has built up in his ability to step up and step in wherever needed, he just doesn't seem like he is going to be healthy enough to be counted on for the playoffs. The bigger hope is that he can get healthy and return as a short inning reliever with valuable postseason experience as the team goes deeper into the playoffs.

The team has used the regular season to interview and audition several of their young and talented pitching prospects hoping that at least one would seize the opportunity and capture a spot in the rotation. Framber Valdez was given every chance to succeed but his lack of control and propensity to walk more hitters than he retires, has forced the club to move on for the rest of this season. Josh James experienced a similar fate after he was sidelined early in the year and again recently by injuries, then when he returned to the team he seemingly lost his ability to throw strikes while suddenly becoming a candidate to give up a long ball every time he took the mound. James still may make the playoff roster as a power arm in the pen, but for now it looks like his days as a starter are over. Jose Urquidy has looked good in his last three appearances but is on an innings limit due to his Tommy John surgery of a few years ago. He is fast approaching the magic number for innings pitched based on the organizational restrictions when you combine his major league and minor league totals and Hinch has said that he is not willing to push those boundaries as he has Urquidy's career in his hands. With that said and combined with his roller coaster season of results, the team isn't likely to give him a shot as a postseason starter.

Composite photo by Brandon Strange

All of that leaves the team with very few options and a limited number of potential solutions as they power towards the postseason. The team could go with a three man rotation and force their best starters into pitching on short rest well before they would otherwise consider such a scenario, or they consider going to an "opener" and then follow up whoever gets the start with a bullpen game by committee. Neither situation seems ideal, especially if they are in command and leading the series but the later would seem to be the best option to preserve the overall state of the rotation. If they go that route, look for Peacock or possibly James to get the call first, followed by anyone not named Roberto Osuna, Ryan Pressly or Will Harris. The bullpen started the season as one of the best collections of talent in all of baseball and it looks like they will end the year even more valuable if they are called upon and counted on to fill the void left by the inconsistency of Miley. It will be interesting to see how it all unfolds and how the team elects to handle it. For the sake of Houston and the Astros, let's hope that Miley and pitching coach Brent Strom can figure out what has been going wrong, right the ship, and avoid having to make any rash decisions.

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The Astros haven't had this much uncertainty in years. Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images.

With overnight temperatures dipping into the 20s this week in Houston, it seems good timing to have the warm thoughts of baseball being back, at least spring training games. The Astros have more shakiness about their squad than they have had in nearly a decade, but the Astros still have a nucleus of an American League West contender. With the exits of Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, it’s just a notably different nucleus than in recent years.

Jose Altuve is the last remaining mainstay of the greatest era in Astros’ history, and he is one of the biggest stories of their preseason as he for the time being at least is left fielder Jose Altuve. By every indication he is embracing the challenge with class and energy. The obvious impetus for test driving the move is the soon-to-be 35 years old Altuve’s defensive deterioration. It can be tough for the player himself to notice that his range has declined. The voiding of defensive shifts after the 2022 season shined a brighter light on Altuve’s D decline. Still, last season Altuve made his ninth All-Star team and despite also displaying some offensive decline remained the clearly best offensive second baseman in the American League. It’s part of the tradeoff of reducing the defensive workload on Yordan Alvarez, and hoping to upgrade defensively at second with some combo of Mauricio Dubon, Brendan Rodgers, or other.

The natural comparison in Astros’ history of a franchise icon losing his defensive spot and making a late-career position change is to Craig Biggio. Biggio’s All-Star days were behind him when the Astros moved him from second base to center field for the 2003 season because of the signing of free agent Jeff Kent. It spoke to the athlete Biggio was that at 37 years old he could make the move at all. After not quite a season and a half in center, Biggio moved to left when the Astros traded for young stud center fielder Carlos Beltran. Both Kent and Beltran left in free agency after the 2004 season, and Biggio moved back to second for the final three seasons of his career.

Second basemen are often second basemen and not shortstops in part because of their throwing arms. Altuve’s throwing arm will be an issue in left field. Even though Daikin Park has the smallest square footage of fair territory in Major League Baseball because of its left to left-center field dimensions, Altuve’s arm will be a liability. In understandably wanting to put an optimistic spin on things, manager Joe Espada and general manager Dana Brown have talked of how Altuve will be able to get momentum behind throws more so than when playing second. That’s true when camping under a fly ball in the outfield. That is not true when Altuve will have to cut off balls hit toward the left field line, or cutting across into the left-center field gap. There will be balls that would be singles when hit to other left fielders that will become doubles when Altuve has to play them, and baserunners will go from first to third and second to home much more readily. As an infielder Altuve has always been outstanding at running down pop-ups, so there is reason to believe he’ll be solid tracking fly balls in the outfield. However, the reality of a guy who is five feet six inches tall (in spikes) is that there will be the occasional fly ball or line drive that is beyond his grasp that more “normal” sized outfielders would grab. Try to name a good outfielder who stood shorter than five-foot-nine...

Here’s one: Hall of Famer Tim Raines (also originally a second baseman) was (and presumably still is!) five-foot-eight.

Here's another: Hall of Famer Hack Wilson was five-six. Four times he led the National League in home runs topped by a whopping 56 in 1930 when he set the still standing record of 191 runs batted in for a single season.

And another: Hall of Famer five-foot-four “Wee” Willie Keeler. Who last played in 1910.

Just a bit outside

Another element new to the Grapefruit League in Florida (and Cactus League in Arizona) this year is the limited use of what Major League Baseball is calling the Automated Ball Strike System. The ABS is likely coming to regular season games next year. This spring will be our first look at its use in big league games. Home plate umpires making ball and strike calls will not be going the way of the dinosaur. Challenges can be made until a team is wrong twice. Significantly, only the batter, pitcher, or catcher can challenge and must do so within two seconds of the pitch being caught. No dugout input allowed. No time to watch a replay.

The Astros’ spring park in West Palm Beach is not among the 13 facilities set up with ABS cameras. That seems silly given that the Astros share the place with the Washington Nationals. More use would be gotten from, and more data collected there than will be from a park with half the spring games played in it.

The countdown to Opening Day is on. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!


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