THE PALLILOG
Houston Astros dynastic aspirations could all come down to this combo of shrewd moves, performances
Nov 4, 2022, 2:44 pm
The Astros head back to Houston with a 3-2 series lead. Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images.
Sports doesn't get more tension-filled and compelling than a close game seven of a championship series. Of course, leading the World Series three wins to two the Astros want no part of a game seven Sunday night with the Phillies at Minute Maid Park. The cases of champagne are ready. The Astros have two shots if needed to uncork the bubbly.
The idea that the Astros have the momentum is meaningless. Momentum is basically recency bias. In 2019 the Astros came home up 3-2 after sweeping three games in Washington DC. They had all the momentum! A lot of good it did them as the Nationals took games six and seven at MMP to win the series. Last year in Atlanta the Astros headed home after staving off elimination by winning game five. Momentum reseized! And then the Braves routed the Astros in game six to wrap up the title.
The Astros do have the substantially better position and the obviously better team heading into game six, but the money is not yet in the bank. Assume nothing! The starting pitching matchup is a rematch of game two, in which Framber Valdez vastly outpitched Zack Wheeler. One early tell will be whether the Phils are better prepared for Framber's curveball which bamboozled and dominated them. On the other side, the Astros smacked around Wheeler, who was given extra rest ahead of game six after his game two velocity dipped a few miles per hour below its norm.
If there is a decisive game seven, Cristian Javier should get the start. Yes he's never gone on three days rest and yes the track record of short rest starters is not good for a while now. Lance McCullers's historically inept game three performance came on the road. The Astros have not grasped that Lance is much better at home (or they at least have not planned accordingly). McCullers will have four days rest ahead of game seven. Still, whether McCullers was tipping pitches while getting shellacked and now he and the Astros clean it up, Javier is better. I mean, who would you trust more? Who would the Phillies rather face?
Literally every pitcher on the roster would be available out of the bullpen in a game seven. Javier's leash can be short. Not that Dusty Baker should make huge decisions via fan (or media) vote, but if Dusty starts Javier and Cristian gets hit hard, the prevailing Astro fan reaction would be "Darn it!" Or something vaguely and untypably similar. If Dusty starts McCullers and Lance got hit hard again, the prevailing Astro fan reaction would be more "Dusty you dumb-dumb, you have to go!"
Changing of the guard
Refresh my memory. Who was the Astros' shortstop before Jeremy Peña? Carlos Correa had numerous big postseason moments with the Astros, but with one more win, Peña's rookie postseason becomes the stuff of Astro legend. Over the five years of trips to five American League Championship Series and three World Series with Correa, Carlos had excellent playoffs in 2017 and in the fanless 2020 season, not so good the other years. Peña has a track record to build, but he has delivered massive hits on the road in every series: the 18th inning series winning home run at Seattle, the game four game-tying homer at the Yankees, and then Thursday night the tiebreaking homer in Philadelphia. Studly.
Reminder: Correa made 35.1 million dollars this season, Peña 700 thousand (he will get some bonus money from the new pre-arbitration eligible player performance rewards pool). Next year Correa will haul in whatever crazy money he hauls in during free agency, Peña will get whatever small raise the Astros choose to give him. Same holds true for 2024 unless Peña and the Astros agree on a multi-year contract at some point. The Astros control Peña through the 2027 season.
JV came through when it mattered
Credit to Justin Verlander for grinding through five innings of one run ball and finally getting the zero out of the win column in his World Series ledger. His command again wasn't sharp, but guile, grit, and some big two out pitches were enough. If Verlander chooses to move on in free agency or the Astros move on from him for payroll flexibility, it was a parting start of which he can be proud and a start that served the Astros' needs.
Help wanted: Designated hitter
Provided Yordan Alvarez is in left field, maybe the Astros can get some sort of roster waiver allowing them to raffle off the game six designated hitter role for charity. Mattress Mack? Or maybe Jeff Bagwell could take a couple nostalgic swings? Who has looked worse between Trey Mancini and Aledmys Diaz is a tough one. David Hensley is the by default option, since using Christian Vàzquez seems not a consideration.
Since destroying Seattle in the first two games of the Division Series, Yordan has done very little damage offensively. Maybe he has a moonshot ready to end the postseason in the style he began it.
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.