THE PALLILOG
Houston Astros dynastic aspirations could all come down to this combo of shrewd moves, performances
Nov 4, 2022, 2:44 pm
The Astros head back to Houston with a 3-2 series lead. Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images.
Sports doesn't get more tension-filled and compelling than a close game seven of a championship series. Of course, leading the World Series three wins to two the Astros want no part of a game seven Sunday night with the Phillies at Minute Maid Park. The cases of champagne are ready. The Astros have two shots if needed to uncork the bubbly.
The idea that the Astros have the momentum is meaningless. Momentum is basically recency bias. In 2019 the Astros came home up 3-2 after sweeping three games in Washington DC. They had all the momentum! A lot of good it did them as the Nationals took games six and seven at MMP to win the series. Last year in Atlanta the Astros headed home after staving off elimination by winning game five. Momentum reseized! And then the Braves routed the Astros in game six to wrap up the title.
The Astros do have the substantially better position and the obviously better team heading into game six, but the money is not yet in the bank. Assume nothing! The starting pitching matchup is a rematch of game two, in which Framber Valdez vastly outpitched Zack Wheeler. One early tell will be whether the Phils are better prepared for Framber's curveball which bamboozled and dominated them. On the other side, the Astros smacked around Wheeler, who was given extra rest ahead of game six after his game two velocity dipped a few miles per hour below its norm.
If there is a decisive game seven, Cristian Javier should get the start. Yes he's never gone on three days rest and yes the track record of short rest starters is not good for a while now. Lance McCullers's historically inept game three performance came on the road. The Astros have not grasped that Lance is much better at home (or they at least have not planned accordingly). McCullers will have four days rest ahead of game seven. Still, whether McCullers was tipping pitches while getting shellacked and now he and the Astros clean it up, Javier is better. I mean, who would you trust more? Who would the Phillies rather face?
Literally every pitcher on the roster would be available out of the bullpen in a game seven. Javier's leash can be short. Not that Dusty Baker should make huge decisions via fan (or media) vote, but if Dusty starts Javier and Cristian gets hit hard, the prevailing Astro fan reaction would be "Darn it!" Or something vaguely and untypably similar. If Dusty starts McCullers and Lance got hit hard again, the prevailing Astro fan reaction would be more "Dusty you dumb-dumb, you have to go!"
Changing of the guard
Refresh my memory. Who was the Astros' shortstop before Jeremy Peña? Carlos Correa had numerous big postseason moments with the Astros, but with one more win, Peña's rookie postseason becomes the stuff of Astro legend. Over the five years of trips to five American League Championship Series and three World Series with Correa, Carlos had excellent playoffs in 2017 and in the fanless 2020 season, not so good the other years. Peña has a track record to build, but he has delivered massive hits on the road in every series: the 18th inning series winning home run at Seattle, the game four game-tying homer at the Yankees, and then Thursday night the tiebreaking homer in Philadelphia. Studly.
Reminder: Correa made 35.1 million dollars this season, Peña 700 thousand (he will get some bonus money from the new pre-arbitration eligible player performance rewards pool). Next year Correa will haul in whatever crazy money he hauls in during free agency, Peña will get whatever small raise the Astros choose to give him. Same holds true for 2024 unless Peña and the Astros agree on a multi-year contract at some point. The Astros control Peña through the 2027 season.
JV came through when it mattered
Credit to Justin Verlander for grinding through five innings of one run ball and finally getting the zero out of the win column in his World Series ledger. His command again wasn't sharp, but guile, grit, and some big two out pitches were enough. If Verlander chooses to move on in free agency or the Astros move on from him for payroll flexibility, it was a parting start of which he can be proud and a start that served the Astros' needs.
Help wanted: Designated hitter
Provided Yordan Alvarez is in left field, maybe the Astros can get some sort of roster waiver allowing them to raffle off the game six designated hitter role for charity. Mattress Mack? Or maybe Jeff Bagwell could take a couple nostalgic swings? Who has looked worse between Trey Mancini and Aledmys Diaz is a tough one. David Hensley is the by default option, since using Christian Vàzquez seems not a consideration.
Since destroying Seattle in the first two games of the Division Series, Yordan has done very little damage offensively. Maybe he has a moonshot ready to end the postseason in the style he began it.
What looked like a minor blip after an emotional series win in Los Angeles has turned into something more concerning for the Houston Astros.
Swept at home by a Guardians team that came in riding a 10-game losing streak, the Astros were left looking exposed. Not exhausted, as injuries, underperformance, and questionable decision-making converged to hand Houston one of its most frustrating series losses of the year.
Depth finally runs dry
It would be easy to point to a “Dodger hangover” as the culprit, the emotional peak of an 18-1 win at Chavez Ravine followed by a mental lull. But that’s not the story here.
Houston’s energy was still evident, especially in the first two games of the series, where the offense scored five or more runs each time. Including those, the Astros had reached that mark in eight of their last 10 games heading into Wednesday’s finale.
But scoring isn’t everything, not when a lineup held together by duct tape and desperation is missing Christian Walker and Jake Meyers and getting critical at-bats from Cooper Hummel, Zack Short, and other journeymen.
The lack of depth finally showed. The Astros, for three days, looked more like a Triple-A squad with Jose Altuve and a couple big-league regulars sprinkled in.
Cracks in the pitching core
And the thing that had been keeping this team afloat, elite pitching, finally buckled.
Hunter Brown and Josh Hader, both dominant all season, finally cracked. Brown gave up six runs in six innings, raising his pristine 1.82 ERA to 2.21. Hader wasn’t spared either, coughing up a game-losing grand slam in extra innings that inflated his ERA from 1.80 to 2.38 in one night.
But the struggles weren’t isolated. Bennett Sousa, Kaleb Ort, and Steven Okert each gave up runs at critical moments. The bullpen’s collective fade could not have come at a worse time for a team already walking a tightrope.
Injury handling under fire
Houston’s injury management is also drawing heat, and rightfully so. Jake Meyers, who had been nursing a calf strain, started Wednesday’s finale. He didn’t even make it through one pitch before aggravating the injury and needing to be helped off the field.
No imaging before playing him. No cautionary rest despite the All-Star break looming. Just a rushed return in a banged-up lineup, and it backfired immediately.
Second-guessing has turned to outright criticism of the Astros’ medical staff, as fans and analysts alike wonder whether these mounting injuries are being made worse by how the club is handling them.
Pressure mounts on Dana Brown
All eyes now turn to Astros GM Dana Brown. The Astros are limping into the break with no clear reinforcements on the immediate horizon. Only Chas McCormick is currently rehabbing in Sugar Land. Everyone else? Still sidelined.
Brown will need to act — and soon.
At a minimum, calling up top prospect Brice Matthews makes sense. He’s been mashing in Triple-A (.283/.400/.476, 10 HR, .876 OPS) and could play second base while Jose Altuve shifts to left field more regularly. With Mauricio Dubón stretched thin between shortstop and center, injecting Matthews’ upside into the infield is a logical step.
*Editor's note: The Astros must be listening, Matthews was called up Thursday afternoon!
The Astros are calling up Brice Matthews, their top prospect on @MLBPipeline
via @brianmctaggart pic.twitter.com/K91cGKkcx6
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) July 10, 2025
There’s also trade chatter, most notably about Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins, but excitement has been tepid. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but compared to who the Astros are fielding now, Mullins would be a clear upgrade and a much-needed big-league presence.
A final test before the break
Before the All-Star reset, Houston gets one last chance to stabilize the ship, and it comes in the form of a rivalry series against the Texas Rangers. The Astros will send their top trio — Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, and Hunter Brown — to the mound for a three-game set that will test their resolve, their health, and perhaps their postseason aspirations.
The Silver Boot is up for grabs. So is momentum. And maybe, clarity on just how far this version of the Astros can go.
There's so much more to discuss! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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*ChatGPT assisted.
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