Rays avoid elimination and force a Game 4 with the Astros
Astros playoff report presented by APG&E: Astros drop ALDS Game 3 with 10-3 loss to Rays
Oct 7, 2019, 3:45 pm
Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images
Zack Greinke leaves the mound after a disappointing start in ALDS Game 3
Houston looked in control after the first inning of Monday's ALDS Game 3, having forced Charlie Morton to throw over thirty pitches while allowing a solo home run to Jose Altuve. In the bottom of the inning, Zack Greinke had a sharp 1-2-3 frame. Things would deteriorate quickly, though, as Greinke would be hit around en route to a disappointing day, allowing the Rays to win Game 3 by a score of 10-3 and force a Game 4 on Tuesday.
Final Score: Rays 10, Astros 3.
Series: HOU leads 2-1.
Winning Pitcher: Charlie Morton.
Losing Pitcher: Zack Greinke.
Altuve gives Houston an early spark
With an ALDS series sweep in reach, Jose Altuve provided the first highlight of the day by hammering a pitch from Charlie Morton to center field for a solo home run to put the Astros ahead 1-0 in the top of the first. After the Rays would get a big three-run go-ahead home run in the bottom of the second, Altuve tried to shift the momentum back Houston's way with a leadoff double in the top of the third but would get left stranded.
Tuve! #ALDS pic.twitter.com/UBaTsFXXdW
— MLB (@MLB) October 7, 2019
Greinke doesn't meet expectations
Zack Greinke looked like he may be in for a very successful day after his nine-pitch first inning with two strikeouts. That changed, however, in the bottom of the second as Greinke would allow a one-out single then hit a batter with two outs, putting two on base for a huge home run by Kevin Kiermaier to give the Rays a 3-1 lead.
1 swing and the Rays are up. #ALDS pic.twitter.com/6XZyxnieio
— MLB (@MLB) October 7, 2019
After back-to-back strikeouts to start the bottom of the third to get back on track, Greinke would make another mistake to Ji-Man Choi, who would extend the lead to 4-1 with a solo home run. Brandon Lowe would join in on the home run barrage, leading off the bottom of the fourth with another to push the lead to four runs at 5-1. Greinke would get two outs into the fourth before allowing a walk to prompt A.J. Hinch out of the dugout to make a call to the bullpen for Hector Rondon. Greinke's final line: 3.2 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 3 HR.
Rays continue to pour it on and force a Game 4
Rondon would only face one batter, and that would result in a single to put runners on first and second with two outs. The Astros would make another call to the bullpen, this time for Wade Miley. Miley did not look any better in this appearance than his starts in a disappointing September, allowing a two-RBI double then RBI-single to his first two batters, blowing the game open to 8-1 before he could get out of the inning.
With a chance to hit against Tampa Bay's bullpen in the top of the sixth after Charlie Morton's day was complete, the Astros took advantage by getting two runners on base for a two-RBI single by Yuli Gurriel to trim the lead to 8-3. The Rays would get one of those back immediately against Miley in the bottom of the inning, hitting a leadoff solo home run to push the lead back to 9-3.
Miley would continue on the mound and get into the bottom of the seventh inning before an error and single put two runners on with one out, resulting in another call to the bullpen to bring in Joe Smith. He would allow a sacrifice fly for the second out, extending Tampa Bay's lead to 10-3 before finishing the frame.
That score would go final as the Rays bullpen would hold the Astros to their three runs, avoiding elimination and forcing a Game 4 at Tropicana Field on Tuesday.
Up Next: Game 4 of the ALDS will be on Tuesday. The start time of the game will depend on the outcome of the Twins and Yankees ALDS Game 3 on Monday night. If the Yankees sweep, the Astros and Rays would be the lone game of the day and start at 6:07 PM Central. If the Twins force a Game 4, then the Houston/Tampa Bay Game 4 would get underway at 3:15 PM Central. The Astros are expected to trust the ball with Jose Urquidy to start Game 4, while the Rays have not yet announced who they will send to the mound.
** UPDATE: The Astros have announced Justin Verlander as the starter for Tuesday's Game 4. He will pitch on three-days rest after a 100-pitch outing in Game 1 this past Friday.
The Astros playoff report is presented by APG&E.
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How Astros advanced metrics tell puzzling story about Houston's start
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Major League Baseball’s regular season is 162 games long. You can think of 18 games as the first inning of the season, 18 times nine equaling 162. While the Astros 8-10 record is not good, it’s far from disastrous. Think of it as them being behind 1-0 after the first inning. It is pretty remarkable that they have yet to win consecutive games. Even during last year’s 7-19 stink bomb of a start the Astros twice managed to win two in a row.
The Astros’ offensive woes are plentiful. Oddly enough as impotent as they’ve been, the Astros have yet to be shutout. But in half their games they have scored exactly one or two runs. Basically, most of them stink thus far. Exemptions go to Jose Altuve and Isaac Paredes, but it’s not like either of them has been outstanding. It’s still early enough that one big series can dramatically alter the numbers, but the Astros badly need Yordan Alvarez to pick up his production. Yordan enters the weekend batting just .224 with a .695 OPS and just four extra base hits. Yainer rhymes with minor. As in minor leagues, where Diaz belongs at his current level of performance. That is not saying Diaz should be sent down, just that any random AAA catcher called up couldn’t have done much worse to this point. Diaz isn’t hitting Altuve’s weight, a woeful .130 with seven hits in 57 at bats. Diaz simply remains too undisciplined at the plate swinging at too many balls. He’s drawn three walks. And now to Christian Walker, who thus far has delivered return on investment for his three year 60 million dollar contract about as strong as the stock market’s performance in Tariff Time. Walker’s .154 batting average and .482 OPS are very Astro Jose Abreu-like. Walker’s23 strikeouts in 65 at bats jump off the page. He has often looked befuddled in the batter's box. Walker is definitely pressing and frustrated, wanting to perform better for his new team. Jeremy Pena goes into the weekend batting .215 and has one hit in 13 at bats with runners in scoring position. Brendan Rodgers, Jake Meyers, and Chas McCormick all have weak stat lines, with little reason to expect quality offensive output from any of them. Cam Smith is at .200 with a yucky .591 OPS but he’s obviously a young stud work in progress thrown into the deep end of the pool.
All batting orders are top-heavy, the Astros’ on paper more so than many. As I set forth on one of our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts this week, the first inning should be a team’s best offensive inning. It’s the only frame in which a team gets to dictate who comes up from the start with the batters lined up just as the manager slots them. Add to that, the first inning is a good time to get to a starting pitcher before he settles in. The Astros have scored a pitiful three first inning runs in 18 games, and in two of the games they pushed one across in the first, it turned out to be the only Astro run of the game. Improvement needs to come internally from the big league roster. It’s not as if the Astros have a meaningful prospect at AAA Sugar Land who looks ready to help. Entering play Thursday the Space Cowboys’ team average was .186. Second base hopeful Brice Matthews is nowhere close, batting .180 and striking out left and right. Outfielder Jacob Melton opened three for 17 following the back injury-delayed start to his season.
As exasperating and boring as the offense has been for so many, grading needs to occur on a curve. So, while the Astros’ team batting average is a joke at .216, know that at close of business Wednesday the entire American League was batting just .232. The American League West-leading Texas Rangers scored eight fewer runs over their first 18 games than did the Astros, though that is skewed by the Astros’ one 14-run outburst against the Angels.
Familiar faces return
This weekend the Astros play host to the San Diego Padres at Daikin Park. The Friars are off to a fabulous start at 15-4. The Padres being here creates a mini reunion as both Martin Maldonado and Yuli Gurriel are on their roster. In a telling fact, Maldonado would have the third-highest batting average on the Astros if on the team with his current numbers. Maldonado is hitting .250 with seven hits in 28 at bats. The last season he finished above .200 was 2020. The only season in his career Maldonado topped .234 was his rookie season with a .266 mark in 2012.
Gurriel was last good in 2021 when he won the American League batting title at .319. He fell off a cliff from there, though perked up to have a fine postseason in the Astros’ 2022 run to World Series title number two. “La Pina” is batting .115 with just three hits in 26 at bats. Gurriel may be released soon, and approaching his 41st birthday June 9, that would probably be the end of the line. Short-timer Astro Jason Heyward is also on the Padres, and batting .190.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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