THE PALLILOG
Eye-popping Astros projections with two thirds of the season in the books
Aug 6, 2021, 10:45 am
Thursday marked the start of the final third of the regular season. Composite image by Jack Brame.
Sad news with the death Wednesday night of former Astro J.R. Richard at 71 years old. Before the career ending stroke he suffered at just 30 years old in 1980, James Rodney Richard was one of the most intimidating pitchers ever to take the mound for the Astros or any other team. Six feet eight inches tall with a 100-mile per hour fastball, Richard at the end of his long pitching stride must have made batters feel like he was about handing the ball to the catcher at 100 MPH. He had a wipeout slider to go with it. In each of his final two full seasons, Richard topped 300 strikeouts and led the National League. Those same two seasons Nolan Ryan led the American League while with the Angels. Over those two seasons Ryan struck out 483. J.R. struck out 616. Nolan faced designated hitters instead of pitchers but that is still a huge gap. Since J.R. did it, the only pitchers to reach 300 Ks in consecutive seasons are Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson (not when they were teammates with the Diamondbacks). "The Big Unit" topped 330 four years in a row.
Three times Richard led the NL in walks, three times he led in wild pitches. In 1980 Richard had harnessed his wildness and was absolutely dominating. His earned run average was 1.90 and he'd given up just 65 hits in 113 2/3 innings. The league was batting .166 against him with a laughable .462 OPS. J.R. was making opposing lineups look like they were comprised of all guys significantly worse than Martin Maldonado (OPS this season .595). Richard started the All-Star Game July 8. He made one more start July 14 before being shut down feeling a "dead" arm. Barely two weeks later, the stroke on July 30.
In what has been disappointing to some and angering to some others, the Astros never retired J.R. Richard's number 50. The most recent Astro to wear number 50 was Charlie Morton, who certainly wore it with great distinction. J.R. is in the Astros' Hall of Fame. With COVID having messed up last year's planned celebration of Astros' Hall of Fame Class of 2020, the class will be honored Saturday night. The honorees are: Lance Berkman, Cesar Cedeno, Roy Hofheinz, Roy Oswalt, Billy Wagner, and Bob Watson.
Big opportunity for Astros
Off a 4-4 road trip to Seattle, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, the Astros should now resume racking up the wins. They started with a weak showing in losing to Minnesota Thursday night at Minute Maid Park so their American League West lead over Oakland is four games. While the A's play host to the abysmal Texas Rangers this weekend, the Astros get three more games against the lousy Twins. Those are followed by two at MMP vs the roadkill Rockies, three In Anaheim against the mediocre Angels, then four at crummy Kansas City. Winning fewer than nine of the next twelve would be at least mildly disappointing.
Astros projections
Thursday marked the start of the final third of the regular season schedule. Extrapolating some numbers from the two-thirds mark over the rest of the way…
Jose Altuve is on pace to top his career highs in home runs (career high is 31, on pace for 37), runs scored (112, 118), walks (60, 71), and strikeouts (84, 104).
Between injuries and a couple of down seasons Carlos Correa has never scored more than 82 runs in a season. He's on pace for 104. Correa's first full big league season (2016) is the only normal length season he's been healthy all the way. So far so good this year.
Kyle Tucker woke up May 9 batting .175. Since then he's hit .322 and is on pace for 31 homers and 99 runs batted in.
Historic Astros offense?
The Astros have never had four guys reach 100 RBI in the same season. Altuve, Tucker, Yuli Gurriel, and Yordan Alvarez are all on pace for from 96 to 105.
Buzzer Beaters:
1. Astros' starting pitchers may not combine for 19 complete games this decade. J.R. threw 19 complete games in 1979.
2. Lionel Messi may be the greatest soccer player ever. Messi is 34 years old so his leaving F.C. Barcelona isn't as big a deal as when the Edmonton Oilers traded Wayne Gretzky in his prime. It's probably a bigger deal than Michael Jordan unretiring to join the Washington Wizards. Jordan turned 40 during his second and final season with the Wizards. He played all 82 games and averaged 37 minutes per game. Load management of today's NBA must make Jordan laugh, if not make him nauseous.
3. Greatest real wizards, meaning not movie or book characters: Bronze-Gus Williams Silver-John Wooden Gold-Ozzie Smith
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Dec 13, 2024, 8:31 pm
Miami (6-7) at Houston (8-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST, CBS
BetMGM Odds: Texans by 3.
Against the spread: Dolphins 5-8; Texans 5-6-2.
Series record: Texans lead 8-3.
Last meeting: Dolphins beat Texans 30-15, on Nov. 27, 2022, in Miami.
Last week: Dolphins beat Jets 32-26 in OT; Texans were off, beat Jaguars 23-20 on Dec. 1.
Dolphins offense: overall (19), rush (24), pass (14), scoring (23).
Dolphins defense: overall (9), rush (7), pass (11), scoring (T14).
Texans offense: overall (18), rush (16), pass (17), scoring (11).
Texans defense: overall (5), rush (10), pass (7), scoring (T12).
Turnover differential: Dolphins minus-2; Texans plus-10.
Dolphins player to watch
QB Tua Tagovailoa, who has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at throwing with anticipation and accuracy since he returned from a concussion in Week 8. Tagovailoa leads the NFL with a 73.8% completion rate and threw for 300 yards for the third straight game last week vs. the Jets. Tagovailoa is the first player in NFL history to have at least 40 pass attempts, multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions in three consecutive games within a single season.
Texans player to watch
QB C.J. Stroud has thrown for at least 225 yards in each of his six home games this season and is 11-4 in 15 starts in Houston, including the playoffs. He has thrown for 3,117 yards with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions this season.
Key matchup
Houston RB Joe Mixon vs. Miami’s run defense. Mixon ran for 101 yards in Houston’s previous game for his seventh 100-yard game this season. He ranks third in the NFL by averaging 88.7 yards rushing a game. This week he’ll face a run defense that ranks seventh in the NFL by holding teams to 105.6 yards a game.
Key injuries
Miami LT Terron Armstead is dealing with a knee injury that limited him to just five snaps last week. He did not practice Wednesday… LBs Bradley Chubb (knee) and Cameron Goode (knee) could make their season debut, depending on how this week of practice goes, coach Mike McDaniel said. … WRs Tyreek Hill (wrist) and Jaylen Waddle (hamstring), RB Raheem Mostert (hip), and LB Anthony Walker Jr. (hamstring) were among those limited in practice Wednesday. … Houston S Jalen Pitre is expected to miss a second straight game with a shoulder injury. … DE Denico Autry was limited in practice Wednesday because of a knee injury.
Series notes
Houston won the first seven meetings in this series. … Miami didn’t get its first win against the Texans until a 44-26 victory in 2015. … The Dolphins have won the past two meetings. … These teams first met in the season opener in 2003 when Houston got a 21-20 win on a late field goal.
Stats and stuff
Three of Miami’s final four games of the season are on the road. … K Jason Sanders needs 13 points Sunday to reach 800. He also needs one field goal to reach 177, which would give him the second-most field goals made in franchise history. … TE Jonnu Smith needs 100 yards receiving to reach 792 and set a franchise record for most yards receiving by a tight end in a single season. Smith had three catches for 44 yards, including the game-winning TD vs. the Jets last week after having no receptions during regulation. … Tagovailoa needs a completion rate of 70% or better on Sunday to reach eight consecutive games completing at least 70% of his passes. That would tie him with Joe Montana (1989) and Drew Brees (2017-18) for the longest streak in NFL history. … The Dolphins gave up a season-high 402 yards to the Jets last week. Aaron Rodgers burned Miami’s pass defense for 319 yards, and Miami’s secondary allowed a combined 223 yards by Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. … Houston can clinch the AFC South title for the second straight year with a win and a loss by Indianapolis Sunday. … The Texans rank second in the NFL with 84 tackles for loss. … Their 42 sacks also rank second. … WR Nico Collins had eight receptions for 119 yards for his fourth 100-yard game this season in Houston’s previous game. He has had at least 75 yards receiving and a TD reception in each of his four home games this season. … TE Dalton Schultz had five receptions for 61 yards and a score in Week 13. He has had at least five catches in two of his past three games. … LB Azeez Al-Shaai will serve the first game of a three-game suspension for an illegal hit to the head of QB Trevor Lawrence Sunday. … DE Danielle Hunter is one of two players in the NFL this season with at least 15 tackles for loss (15) and 10 sacks (10 1/2). It’s his sixth career season with at least 10 sacks. He has eight tackles for loss and five sacks combined in his past three games. … DE Will Anderson has had a sack in his past two home games. … LB Henry To’oTo’o has had at least five tackles in four straight games. … CB Derek Stingley had his third interception of the season in his previous game. … CB Kamari Lassiter had a career-high eight tackles, including a tackle for loss in Week 13. … S Jimmie Ward has had an interception in his past two home games. He also had an interception in his previous game against Miami in 2022 while with San Francisco.
Fantasy tip
Collins has 456 yards receiving and four touchdown receptions in four home games this season.