THE PALLILOG
How Astros enter exciting stretch with familiar names in unfamiliar spots
May 15, 2025, 5:52 pm
Nobody saw this coming! Composite Getty Image.
It’s a fun series between the Astros and Rangers through the weekend in Arlington, but by no means is it a critical series. It would be nice for the Astros to not lose three out of the four games (or obviously all four) to their upstate rivals. The Astros have lost their last five road series, dropping two out of three games in each of them. As with the Astros, pitching has been the strength of the team for the Rangers thus far. After the humdinger Hunter Brown-Jacob deGrom mound matchup Thursday night, the Rangers give the ball Friday to Nathan Eovaldi with his earned run average at 1.78, then Saturday it’s Tyler Mahle with his even more sparkling 1.47 ERA. Heading into Thursday play, the Mariners having lost five of their last six games meant just a game and a half separate first from fourth place in the American League West. The Astros, Rangers, and Athletics are all right there. Only the Angels are inconsequential.
Star power!
There is an asterisk to attach but Jeremy Pena is making a real charge at becoming a first-time All-Star game selection. Among American League shortstops, the Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr. is clearly the best. The clear number two in the pecking order coming into this season was the Orioles’ Gunnar Henderson, who is on fire after a slow start that began with him missing seven games on the injured list. Athletics’ rookie Jacob Wilson goes into the weekend batting .350 and amazingly has struck out just nine times in 164 at bats. Rangers’ stud Corey Seager being on the injured list with a balky hamstring for the second time this season helps the Astros this weekend and likely frees up an All-Star spot.
Now to that aforementioned asterisk. Pena has been sensational so far, indisputably the Astros’ best everyday player. We just need to see more staying power of performance before fully slotting Pena in the top tier of shortstops. Pena’s four-hit game Wednesday night hiked his batting average to .315, his OPS to .840. Well, last year Pena put head to pillow the night of May 15 with his batting average at .333, his OPS at .830. The rest of the season Pena hit .240 with a meager .653 OPS. That Pena drew a paltry 18 walks over his last 114 games. 2025 Pena has showed markedly better plate discipline. He’ll never be a high walks-drawn guy but incremental improvement matters, and can bear fruit in other ways.
Fruitless continues to describe an awfully high percentage of Christian Walker’s plate appearances. 2023 Jose Abreu was better (2024 Abreu was not). Plenty of season still remains for a turnaround, but more than a quarter of the season is gone and it’s not as if Walker is trending in the right direction. In three games against the Royals he went zero for 12 with seven strikeouts. With his final whiff, Walker reached the 50 strikeout “milestone” for the season in his 154th at bat. Feeble and lousy are fair characterizations of a .208 batting average and .625 OPS, magnified for someone batting clean-up most nights. Starting play Thursday 13 big leaguers actually had struck out more than Walker so far this season, among them only the Pirates’ Bryan Reynolds carries a lower OPS. Walker has been even worse with runners in scoring position, batting just .171, with a sub-abysmal 20 strikeouts in 41 at bats.
Using Baseball-Reference's Wins Above Replacement statistic, the Astros’ three worst non-pitchers this season are Walker, Yordan Alvarez, and Jose Altuve. Those are the three highest paid players on the team. Altuve’s extended funk has him hitting .202 over his last 27 games with a .538 OPS. Altuve was dropped to second in the batting order basically at his request. It has not sparked him. If Altuve doesn’t pick it up, manager Joe Espada will have to consider dropping Altuve several more spots down the lineup. Alvarez is at 11 games and counting missed with a muscle strain in his right hand. He will not be approaching the career-high 147 games played last season.
Relief pitcher Tayler Scott was a revelation last season. Before joining the Astros at age 31 Scott had a big-league ERA of 9.00 in 46 innings scattered over three seasons. So it was pretty much out of nowhere that the only South African pitcher in MLB history posted a scintillating 1.36 ERA into early August before fading and winding up with a still stellar 2.23 mark. The clock struck midnight on his Cinderella story this year though, and with the Astros needing to open a roster spot this week, Scott was designated for assignment.
Book it!
Longtime Astros’ broadcasting stalwart Bill Brown has authored several books. His latest is Wartime Athletes, which tells the stories of athletes across a number of sports who served in the U.S. military during various wars. If you know anything about Bill Brown, you know each story was meticulously researched and makes for an interesting read. I’m no Oprah when it comes to the power of suggestion for reading material, but Wartime Athletes is worth your time and/or is a worthy gift for someone else.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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For years, the Astros built their dynasty on precision — smart bets, savvy scouting, and a steady refusal to let emotion cloud judgment. But as the 2025 season rolls into June, that precision feels dulled. Houston still wears the polish of a perennial contender, but underneath, the gears are grinding. A thin lineup, a faltering rotation, and a public misfire in player health management have created a team still standing, but no longer towering.
Houston still has a great chance to win the AL West, thanks more to the division’s mediocrity than its own dominance. But the warning lights are flashing.
Identifying the weak link
The biggest concern right now? It’s hard to choose just one.
The Astros’ offense has been startlingly average — 14th in OPS, 18th in runs scored. When this team had Springer, Correa, Bregman, and peak Altuve, scoring was a given. Now, it’s a grind. Too much depends on too few — and when a key piece like Isaac Paredes slumps, as he has recently, the whole offense stutters.
But the lineup isn’t alone in its inconsistency. The back half of the rotation has become a weak point due to a rash of injuries. With Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown pulling their weight at the top, the drop-off behind them is stark. Houston used to bury teams with pitching depth; now it’s just hoping for enough quality starts to make their elite bullpen matter.
The Yordan situation
And then there’s Yordan Alvarez and his fractured hand.
The slugger’s delayed return raised eyebrows. The lack of clarity around his status raised more. It's hard not to boil this down to outright incompetence.
If this were a one-off, it might be brushed aside. But it’s not. It’s another example of a once-cutting-edge organization starting to look clumsy at the margins.
Wasting prime Framber?
All of this would feel less urgent if Houston were building toward something. The team’s decision to trade Kyle Tucker this past offseason spoke volumes. It wasn’t just about resetting the CBT. It was a pivot, a signal that the franchise was playing the long game. And with Framber likely on his way out after this season, the choice to pass on going all-in this year becomes even more glaring.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
*ChatGPT assisted.
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Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!