THE PALLILOG
Here's how the Astros stack up against Chris Sale and the Red Sox
Oct 15, 2021, 9:30 am
Framber Valdez will start Game 1 against Chris Sale. Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images.
There were a lot of people furious about Major League Baseball basically forcing the Astros to switch to being an American League team starting with the 2013 season. The owners would not approve Jim Crane and partners' purchase of the club from Drayton McLane unless the incoming owners agreed to go to the AL. I'd say it's worked out pretty well. Crane and his partners got a 65 million dollar rebate on their purchase price for accepting the move, and the Astros Friday night play in their fifth consecutive American League Championship Series.
Lance McCullers is NOT on the Astros' ALCS roster, so he's out for the series. Jake Meyers is active.
— Jake Kaplan (@jakemkaplan) October 15, 2021
The loss of Lance McCullers is a blow, but does not change the Astros being the favorite to win the pennant. It does tighten things up. The decision to use McCullers in the successful bid to close out the White Sox meant he would have started game three and a prospective game seven vs. Boston. McCullers was the stingiest starting pitcher in the AL this year in terms of giving up home runs. The Red Sox can mash with the Astros. Boston will run out a lineup with seven guys who hit at least 20 homers this season. Rafael Devers, Kyle Schwarber, and Hunter Renfroe all topped 30.
After the obvious choice of Framber Valdez to start game one, Dusty Baker is going the way he should have against Chicago, opting for Luis Garcia in game two at home. That means in games three and four at Fenway Park it's Jose Urquidy and either, gulp, Zack Greinke or Jake Odorizzi. The Red Sox will be patching things together themselves.
Red Sox manager Alex Cora made an interesting call going with Chris Sale as his game one starting pitcher, holding back Alvin native Nathan Eovaldi until game two Saturday afternoon. Sale has been terrible in his last two starts. Most recently he went against the Rays in game two of their Division Series and lasted one inning, torched for five runs. In 2017 the Astros began their postseason run to winning the World Series by blasting Sale in game one of the ALDS. Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve hit back-to-back homers in the first inning. Altuve took Sale deep again in the fifth, then in the seventh hit his third homer of the game off of reliever Austin Mattox. The Astros won that series in four games, with Sale taking the loss in relief in the finale. In the 2018 AL Championship Series the Astros beat Sale in game one, though the Sox swept the next four games.
Astros in six seems a decent chuck at the prediction dart board.
Meanwhile over in the National League, despise the Dodgers or not (okay…despise them) only the foolhardy lacks respect for them. The reigning World Series champs survived the Wild Card game against the Cardinals that was tied 1-1 in the ninth, then Thursday won a decisive game five at San Francisco that was tied 1-1 in the ninth. The Dodgers play the Atlanta Braves in a rematch of last year's NLCS, which the Braves led three games to one before the Dodgers took the last three games.
Texans vs. Colts
The 1-4 Texans are at 1-4 Indianapolis Sunday. You pumped up?!? Next week at least brings an interesting subplot when the Texans head to Arizona. A couple of guys named Watt and Hopkins are no doubt enjoying life with the only remaining unbeaten team in the NFL. J.J. is thus far sackless with his new team. DeAndre is on pace for his lowest reception total since his rookie season, but has four touchdown catches. The 5-0 Cardinals get tested at Cleveland Sunday. As for Texans-Colts? Of the 12 games in the NFL Sunday Texans at Colts is definitely one of them.
NCAA
What a win for Texas A&M over Alabama, following losses to Arkansas and Mississippi State. Sports! The Aggies can't help but have some emotional letdown this week, but still should have enough to win at Missouri. For Texas meanwhile, what is the bounce back after the Longhorns' gut wrenching loss to Oklahoma? Oklahoma State arrives in Austin with a 5-0 record and ranked number 12 in the nation.
Buzzer Beaters:
1. The Rockets open their season Wednesday at Minnesota. Their season projects to deliver not many wins but much future promise. The Rockets will be rooting for the Astros-Red Sox series to end in five games max. If there is a game six, it's Friday night at Minute Maid Park while the Rockets play their home opener.
2. Would the Astros become even bigger "villains" if they roll to the World Series crown by tearing apart the Red (Sox), White (Sox), and (Dodger) Blue?
3. Greatest Mookies: Bronze: Spike Lee's character in "Do the Right Thing." Silver: Pearl Jam (original name Mookie Blaylock) Gold: Betts
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Joe Mixon has carried Houston’s offense in the three games since he returned from an injury.
The running back could be even more important this week with the Texans dealing with another injury to a top receiver after Stefon Diggs went down Sunday.
Diggs sustained a non-contact injury to his right knee and coach DeMeco Ryans refused to provide any details on his injury Monday, saying only that he’s still being evaluated.
His injury comes with leading receiver Nico Collins out for at least one more game after being placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury.
Mixon has had at least 100 yards rushing and a TD run in three straight games. He finished with 102 yards rushing and a touchdown in Houston’s 23-20 win over Indianapolis on Sunday.
“Joe showed up big time for us when we needed him most making plays,” Ryans said.
Mixon, who is in his first season in Houston after a trade from Cincinnati, became the first player in NFL history to have at least 100 yards rushing and a TD run in four of his first five games with a team.
The only time he didn’t have 100 yards and a score this season came in Week 2 when he missed almost the entire second half with an ankle injury that kept him out the next three games. He ranks third in the NFL by averaging 100.6 yards rushing a game.
If Diggs is out this week, Tank Dell is the most likely candidate to pick up the slack in the passing game.
His production has dropped off this season after a standout rookie year where he had 709 yards receiving with seven touchdowns in 11 games before breaking his leg. He has 229 yards receiving this season and scored his second touchdown in Sunday’s win which improved the AFC South-leading Texans to 6-2.
But Ryans said it will take a group effort to make sure Stroud and Houston’s passing attack, which rank eighth in the NFL, stay on track.
“What I loved about our game (Sunday) was that you saw was multiple guys stepping up and making plays,” he said. “That is what excites me the most about our team … a lot of different guys stepping up and making plays and that is what we will continue to see.”
What's working
Houston’s defense entered Monday’s game ranked second in the NFL by allowing just 280.3 yards a game. The strength of the unit has been the pass defense, which is giving up just 164.3 yards a game.
Safety Jalen Pitre, who had an interception Sunday, said the secondary has gotten a boost from Houston’s pass rush, which ranks third in the league with 27 sacks.
“We’re doing a pretty good job, but it’s a huge credit to our D-line,” Pitre said. “They’re outstanding. They do their job at a high level and it does nothing but make opposing quarterbacks know that they’ve got to get the ball out earlier and that turns into incompletions and interceptions.”
What needs help
The offensive line continued to struggle in pass protection Sunday. Stroud was sacked just twice but was hit nine other times and was under pressure on 57.5% of his drop-backs according to NextGen stats.
The Texans benched left guard Kenyon Green for Jarrett Patterson in the first quarter Sunday as he struggled against the rush. But Green had to come back soon after that because Patterson got a concussion.
Ryans said they’ll continue to evaluate the line to see how they can improve the protection.
Stock up
Dell, who is in his second season, had four receptions for 35 yards and a touchdown Sunday. The performance came after he was targeted four times against the Packers but finished with zero receptions. He has nine career touchdowns, which ties him with Will Fuller for most in franchise history through a player’s first 18 games.
“I’m just super proud of him, what he’s been able to do and he’s going to have to step up really big for us,” Stroud said.
Stock down
Green for his struggles in pass protection Sunday. The 15th overall pick in the 2022 draft missed all last season with injuries before returning to the starting lineup this season.
“We can definitely be better, especially on my end,” he said after the game.
Injuries
S Calen Bullock was limited in practice Monday after injuring his shoulder Sunday. … LBs Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) and Henry To’oTo’o (concussion) both missed the Colts game but could return this week. … S Jimmie Ward is likely to miss a fifth straight game with a groin injury.
Key number
13.3% — Houston’s defense limited Anthony Richardson to a 13.3% completion percentage in the first half Sunday, which was the second-lowest completion percentage by any player in a half since 1991. The second-year quarterback completed just 2 of 15 passes before halftime.
Next steps
The Texans have a quick turnaround before a visit to the New York Jets on Thursday night where they’ll try for their fifth win in six games.