TALE OF THE TAPE
Astros-Reds opener could hinge on these critical factors
May 9, 2025, 12:30 pm
Hunter Brown takes the hill for Houston Friday night. Composite Getty Image.
The Houston Astros (18-18) return home Friday night to open a three-game series against the Cincinnati Reds (19-20), with first pitch set for 8:10 p.m. EDT at Daikin Park.
Riding the arm of one of baseball’s hottest starters, Houston hands the ball to Hunter Brown (5-1, 1.67 ERA), who has been dominant through his first seven starts. Brown enters the game with a sparkling 0.88 WHIP and 49 strikeouts, looking to keep the Astros trending in the right direction.
Cincinnati counters with right-hander Nicholas Martinez (1-3, 4.19 ERA), who has been steady but not overpowering, and will face an Astros lineup that’s shown signs of life, hitting .269 over its last 10 games.
At 11-7 at home, Houston has played solid baseball, but has struggled in close contests, going just 3-5 in one-run games. The Reds arrive having dropped seven of their last 10 and are hitting just .205 in that stretch. Their .242 team batting average ranks ninth in the National League, but they’ve been outscored by 14 runs over the past 10 games.
Jeremy Peña continues to pace the Astros’ offense with 11 extra-base hits, while catcher Yainer Diaz has been red-hot, batting .342 with two homers and eight RBIs over the last 10 games. For Cincinnati, Gavin Lux and Jose Trevino have done the heavy lifting lately, but the lineup as a whole has scuffled.
With the BetMGM line favoring the Astros at -178 and an over/under of 7.5, this one projects as a pitcher’s duel—especially if Brown continues to deal.
Friday marks the first meeting between these two teams this season.
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The Astros are making noise again — not by bludgeoning teams with a powerhouse offense, but by grinding through games and getting elite production from a patched-together pitching staff. It’s a testament to their depth and resilience that they went 4-2 on a tough road trip while averaging just 3.6 runs per game. Even more impressive? The staff allowed just 2.3 runs per game during that stretch.
It’s fair to be impressed. This is a team still missing key pieces and leaning heavily on unproven arms, yet they’ve built a 2.5-game lead over Seattle in the AL West. If the rotation keeps performing like this, that cushion might not just hold through the All-Star break — it could grow.
Houston's pitching has been the great stabilizer. The Astros rank 1st in strikeouts, 9th in ERA, 4th in WHIP, and 2nd in batting average against. The numbers aren’t carried solely by the stars either. Youngsters like Brandon Walter and Colton Gordon have stepped in admirably. Walter has allowed just two runs combined across his first two starts (6 IP and 5 IP), while Gordon has quietly gone five innings in three straight outings, giving up 1, 4, and 3 runs. Ryan Gusto has been inconsistent — failing to get through five innings in his last three starts — but has kept the damage manageable (3, 2, and 2 runs in those outings).
Meanwhile, the top of the rotation has been lights out. Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown have become one of the most dominant 1-2 punches in baseball, and Lance McCullers Jr. is starting to look like a real contributor again. It’s a staff carrying the team while the bats slowly try to catch up.
That offense, while mediocre overall — 15th in OPS, 20th in runs, 19th in homers, and 18th in slugging — has shown signs of life in recent days. Jeremy Peña and Jake Meyers have provided much-needed sparks. Peña is hitting .370 over the past week with an .851 OPS, while Meyers has been even hotter, posting a .381 average and .934 OPS.
The biggest news off the field this week was the potential end of the Forrest Whitley era. The former first-round pick was designated for assignment, a move that answers an early-season question: Who’s more likely to contribute this year — Whitley or McCullers? The answer is now clear.
Whitley’s DFA also serves as a reminder that not even elite GMs like Jeff Luhnow are immune to draft misses.
The Astros' last four first-round picks of the Jeff Luhnow era show how much of a crapshoot drafting can be.
2016: Forrest Whitley
2017: J.B. Bukauskus
2018: Seth Beer
2019: Korey Lee
Bukauskus and Beer did help land Zack Greinke, which certainly can be justified.
— Greg Rajan (@GregRajan) June 8, 2025
As the Houston Chronicle's Greg Rajan points out, Luhnow’s final four first-round picks with Houston all fell short: Whitley (2016), J.B. Bukauskas (2017), Seth Beer (2018), and Korey Lee (2019) have yet to become meaningful pieces for any club. The draft remains a gamble — even for the best.
Still, the Astros are finding answers. Despite an offense that’s still searching for consistency, their pitching — both from the top and the bottom of the depth chart — has been dominant. If that continues, this club won't just hold the lead. They’ll have momentum heading into July.
There's so much more to cover! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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