The Astros aren't just winning more, they’re winning differently
Jun 20, 2025, 1:45 pm
A whole new ballgame. Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.
As of 9:42 Central Daylight Saving Time Friday night, the Astros (and all other baseball players) are officially the Boys of Summer, officially so far as the season is concerned anyway. When the summer solstice arrived last year the Astros were nine games off the lead in the American League West. So in addressing the rhetorical axiom “what a difference a year makes,” the difference in the Astros’ case is a whopping 14 games as they start the weekend atop their division by five games. At this point in the season last year the Astros’ record in one-run games was a brutal 5-14. In 2025 they are 13-7 in games decided by the narrowest of margins.
That the Astros are just 4-5 in road games against the two worst teams in the American League is no big deal, other than that every game counts in the standings. Still, just as was losing two out of three at the pathetic White Sox earlier this season, it is no doubt disappointing to the Astros to have only gotten a split of their four-game set with the Athletics. The A’s had gone 9-28 in their last 37 games before the Astros arrived in West Sacramento. The former-Oaklanders took the first game and the finale, as the Astros’ offense played bi-polar ball over the four nights. Two stat-padding explosion games that totaled 24 runs and 35 hits were bookended by a puny one-run output Monday and Thursday’s 5-4 10-inning loss. Baseball happens. Nevertheless, as the Astros open their weekend set versus the Angels, they have gone 17-7 over their last 24 games to forge their five-game division lead.
The New York Yankees’ offense has been by a healthy margin the best attack in the American League so far this season. The reigning AL champions snapped a six-game losing streak Thursday. The Yankees mustered a total of six runs over those six losses, including being shutout in three consecutive games. The baseball season is the defining “it’s a marathon not a sprint” sport. With 162 games on the schedule, combined with the fact that the gap in winning percentage between the best teams and the worst teams is smaller than in any other sport, making much about a series, or week or two of games is misguided, apart from all the results mattering.
The future is now
Without context, statistics can tell very misleading stories. Cam Smith is having a fine rookie season and has the looks of a guy who can blossom into a bonafide star and be an Astro mainstay into the 2030s. But it’s silliness that has anyone talking about the big month of June he’s having. Superficially, sure, going into Thursday’s game Smith’s stat line for the month read a .321 batting average and .874 OPS. Alas, that was mostly about Smith’s two monster games in the consecutive routs of the Athletics. Over those two games Cam went seven for nine with two home runs and two doubles. Over the other 14 games he’s played this month Smith is batting .213 with an OPS below .540.
Cam Smith is a long-term contender for best acquisition of Dana Brown’s tenure as General Manager. If his career was a single game Smith is still in the first inning, but if his career was a stock it’s a buy and hold. If the Astros were for some reason forced to part with all but two players in the organization, I think the two they would hold on to are Smith and Hunter Brown. Jeremy Pena would be another strong candidate, but he turns 28 in September and is two seasons from free agency (unless the rules change in the next collective bargaining agreement). Smith is 22 and under Astros’ control for another five seasons, he’s not even presently eligible for salary arbitration until the 2028 season. Brown turns 27 in August and currently ineligible for free agency until after the 2028 season.
Angels in the outfield
Hunter Brown pitches opposite Yusei Kikuchi Friday night. Kikuchi was Dana Brown’s big in-season move last season, and Kikuchi was excellent with the Astros which set up to get the three=year 63 million dollar deal he landed with the Halos. After a slow start to his season Kikuchi has been outstanding the past month and a half, with a 2.28 earned run average over his last nine starts. Brown’s 1.88 season ERA is second-best in the big leagues among pitchers with the innings pitched to qualify in the category. Only Pirates’ stud Paul Skenes has a better mark, barely so at 1.85.
Kikuchi was a stellar rental who helped the Astros stretch their consecutive postseasons streak to eight. There was an absurd amount of vitriol over what Dana Brown gave up for him. Joey Loperfido is 26 years old and having a middling season at AAA. Will Wagner is 26 years old and back in the minors after batting .186 with the Blue Jays. Jake Bloss is the one guy who maaaaaybe some day the Astros wish they still had. Bloss is out into 2026 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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The Houston Astros have looked like one of baseball’s most dangerous teams in recent weeks, riding a hot streak fueled by dominant starting pitching and a red-hot offense that’s erupted for double-digit runs in four of their last eight games. But behind the current success, there are fair questions about whether this pace is truly sustainable as the grind of the season continues.
Yes, the Astros are winning — and winning big — but context matters. Many of their recent victories have come against struggling clubs like the White Sox and Athletics. Even matchups against the Twins and Guardians, while respectable, don’t exactly represent championship-caliber tests. That soft stretch of the schedule has certainly helped Houston pad its win column, but it may not be the best predictor of long-term performance. Houston will be tested in the upcoming series against the Phillies and Cubs.
On the pitching side, the numbers have been impressive, but how repeatable is it? With Lance McCullers Jr. sidelined for at least a couple of weeks, the Astros are relying on a patchwork rotation that includes unproven arms like Colton Gordon, Ryan Gusto, and Brandon Walter. While each has shown flashes, asking them to shoulder the load deep into the summer may be a tall order.
Offensively, Houston is firing on all cylinders. But scoring 10 or more runs every other game simply isn’t sustainable over a 162-game season. Regression is inevitable; the question is how the team responds when the bats cool down or the bullpen is asked to carry more weight.
Amid all this, rookie third baseman Cam Smith continues to shine. Just a few months into his major league career, Smith is producing at a level that suggests he’s not just a key piece of the future — he’s already one of the team’s most valuable players. His batting average sits just a point behind Jose Altuve’s, and his OPS is even higher. If the Astros were forced to choose two players to build around long-term, factoring in youth and contract status, the logical duo might be Smith and breakout pitcher Hunter Brown.
So what about the big picture? Is this team a true World Series contender?
Oddsmakers currently have Houston with the seventh-best odds to win it all, and only the Yankees and Tigers rank higher among American League teams. The core is still there, the experience is undeniable, and if the pitching continues to hold — especially with the anticipated return of Spencer Arrighetti and a healthy McCullers — the Astros have every reason to believe they’ll be in the mix deep into October.
But that’s a big “if.” The ceiling is still high, and with Cam Smith emerging as a star in real time, this team might just have another gear. Whether they can reach it when the competition stiffens, that remains to be seen.
There's so much more to cover! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!