THE PALLILOG

As Correa returns, Astros get a reminder of what was — and what is

Astros Jeremy Pena
The Astros made the right decision. Photo by Jack Gorman/Getty Images.

Cross your fingers that Isaac Paredes’s hamstring tweak Thursday night is only a tweak. The Astros’ mediocre lineup would absorb a hard blow if Paredes winds up heading to the Injured List. But don’t worry, is there any doubt the Astros’ medical staff has it handled? Paredes has been excellent, a better player than was 2024 Alex Bregman. If he is to miss some time with the sore hammy, that will hurt Paredes’s “on pace for” numbers, but his 15th home run of the season Thursday has him on pace for 35, his 42nd run batted in has him on pace for 98. Reminder that Paredes is making $6,625,000 this season versus Bregman’s 40 million. The Astros sure hope that Paredes doesn’t wind up joining Bregman on the IL.

Follow the money

Never blame a player for grabbing every last dollar he can. However, when taking more money to join a clearly lesser organization, one loses the ability to honestly say, “winning is the most important thing to me.” It’s no sin if winning isn’t absolute priority one. It’s a life choice and business decision. Hello Carlos Correa.

The Astros host the Minnesota Twins at Daikin Park this weekend. Correa is now in his fourth season with the Twins. If his level of play doesn’t pick up, it will be the worst season of his career. Correa is in the third year of the six-year 200 million dollar contract he signed with Minnesota after exercising his opt out clause following the first year of the three-year deal he initially inked with the Twins. In total he has seven years with and 235 million dollars coming from the Twins. When Correa first hit free agency the Astros final offer to keep him was a very reasonable five years and 160 million dollars. If Correa had re-upped with the Astros, he’d have become a free agent after next season. No way would he then have gotten 75 million over two years to match the total haul of 235 over seven he bagged.

Financially, Correa played it correctly. But is he having the same fun playing home games in Minneapolis where the Twins are averaging barely over 20,000 per game in announced attendance, versus the Astros who are announcing about 32,000 per? Correa has played in the postseason once in the three years, and the Astros eliminated him, while the Astros have been in every year. The Twins start the series here this weekend with a record only a game and a half behind the Astros, but while the Astros lead the weak American League West by four and a half games, the Twins about need a telescope to see the Detroit Tigers eight games in front of them in the AL Central. The AL West is the only of the six divisions in Major League Baseball that has just one team with a winning record.

Correa turns 31 years old September 22, the same day Jeremy Pena turns 28. Correa is making over 37 million dollars this season. The Astros are paying Pena four-point-four mil. Over 2026 and 2027 Correa will pull down nearly 65 mil. Over those same two seasons, the Astros will likely pay Pena a total of between 20 and 25 million. Last season Correa was a significantly better player than Pena, except that Carlos played only 86 games. This year Pena has made a quantum leap and is playing like a superstar, while Correa’s game has eroded. Fun factoids: Pena stole his 14th base of the season Wednesday. Correa’s last stolen base came in 2019. To be fair, speed was never a signature of Correa's game.

Double trouble

In 1948 the Boston Braves had a tandem of starting pitching aces in future Hall of Famer Warren Spahn and Johnny Sain. The rest of the rotation was a bit shaky. Boston sportswriter Gerald Hearn wrote “First we’ll use Spahn, then we’ll use Sain, then an off day followed by rain. Back will come Spahn, followed by Sain, and followed we hope by two days rain.” Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez are the Spahn and Sain of the 2025 Astros. Brown has been marvelous all season, Valdez has a 2.02 earned run average over his last seven starts. I leave Brown/Valdez poetry to you.

Spahn is among the handful of greatest left-handed pitchers in history. He debuted in 1942 and pitched in four games, before serving in World War II that took him out of the 1943, ‘44, and ‘45 seasons. Spahn logged his first big league win in 1946 when he was 25 years old. He’d win 362 more and will never be caught for the honor of most wins by a lefty in big league history. As a 42-year-old Spahn went 23-7 and threw 22 complete games. When men were men! It was the 13th time in Spahn’s career that he was a 20-game winner.

For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!

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Three is the magic number. Composite Getty Image.

The Houston Texans have a chance to win a third straight AFC South title this season with quarterback C.J. Stroud and coach DeMeco Ryans.

The challenge?

Nobody has won three straight titles since Peyton Manning was in his prime with the Indianapolis Colts in this division’s early years. The Tennessee Titans most recently came the closest only to come up short in 2022.

“I’m not really sure like what the next step is,” Houston general manager Nick Caserio said. “I mean we have a good football team, so we’ve been one of the best eight teams in the league the last two years. So what’s going to happen beyond that nobody has any idea.”

The Texans have advanced to two straight divisional rounds each of the past two postseasons, losing both with the most recent to Kansas City 23-14 in January. Caserio made a variety of moves to help Stroud, and coach DeMeco Ryans switched offensive coordinators as well.

Houston tight end Dalton Schultz said they just have to do one thing to get past the divisional round.

“It’s never the same as the year before, and there’s always some little wrinkle that is going to hit the league or hit your team,” Schultz said.

Houston went 10-7 in 2024 with the Colts at 8-9 with everyone working furiously to catch up — or else.

Indianapolis switched starting quarterbacks. Jacksonville hired a new coach and general manager before trading up to draft Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter. Tennessee has No. 1 draft pick overall in Cam Ward starting at quarterback after firing and hiring a new general manager.

“This league is a year-to-year league and what do I feel is best for the Colts in 2025,” Colts coach Shane Steichen said.

Texans’ challenge

Houston has to protect Stroud better. Only Chicago’s Caleb Williams was sacked more than the 2024 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. With the pounding, Stroud’s production dipped as he was sacked 52 times with his interceptions more than doubling to 12 from his rookie season.

Stroud still threw for 3,727 yards and 20 touchdowns. Ryans fired Bobby Slowik and hired Nick Caley as offensive coordinator.

“He comes from a different style than I’m used to, at least in the NFL,” Stroud said of Caley. “So, it’s cool just to learn something new and put another tool in my toolbox.”

Caserio traded five-time Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil to Washington during the offseason to clear space to sign younger players. The Texans are expected to start a rookie at left tackle in second-round pick Aireontae Ersery with Tytus Howard at right tackle where he started 16 games last season.

Houston also acquired Christian Kirk, signed Justin Watson and drafted a pair of receivers out of Iowa State to provide depth behind Nico Collins after letting Stefon Diggs leave in free agency. Caserio also sent wide receiver John Metchie to Philadelphia for tight end Harrison Bryant on Aug. 17.

Hey Danny Dimes

Indianapolis has missed the playoffs the past four seasons, and a fifth straight could cost Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard their jobs with the late Jim Irsay’s daughters now running the franchise.

Going with Daniel Jones means the franchise who went two decades with Manning and Andrew Luck at quarterback will have yet another starter on opening day. Since 2017, only Anthony Richardson has started back-to-back season openers.

Yet the fourth overall pick in 2023 couldn’t stay healthy or help Jonathan Taylor nearly enough. Taylor ran for 1,431 yards and 11 TDs as Richardson completed just 47.7% of his throws, the lowest rate of any regular starter in the NFL.

Steichen said Richardson, 23, was thrown into the fire. The Colts coach isn’t ready to talk about Jones’ future.

“Let’s see how the season goes,” Steichen said.

Jacksonville’s youth movement

The biggest makeover came in Jacksonville, firing a Super Bowl-winning coach in Doug Pederson and GM Trent Baalke. The Jaguars hired Liam Coen as coach and James Gladstone, 34, as their new GM.

The Jaguars are trying to fix a team that went 3-10 in one-score games in 2024 with the franchise losers of 18 of its past 23.

In his first head coaching job, Coen, 39, has a pair of first-timers in offensive coordinator Grant Udinski and defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile. As coordinator in Tampa Bay, Coen became the first NFL coordinator in at least 25 years to help a team average more than 28 points a game.

He has Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft, who was limited by injuries to 10 games in 2024. Wide receiver Brian Thomas now can get help from Hunter, even if the rookie will also play some defense.

Tennessee time

Brian Callahan also was a first-time head coach a year ago with the Titans. He brought in a former NFL head coach in Mike McCoy this offseason among a handful of other changes to apply his lessons learned.

Mike Borgonzi was hired as GM when Ran Carthon’s big offseason spending spree didn’t pan out. The Titans have embraced their rebuild even if they added veteran receivers Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson along with left tackle Dan Moore Jr. and right guard Kevin Zeitler.

Predicted order of finish

Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville.

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