THE PALLILOG
Astros again have best chance to achieve something never before seen in MLB
Jul 8, 2022, 10:24 am
Three Astros could be taking home the hardware. Composite image by Brandon Strange.
No Major League Baseball team has ever produced its league’s Most Valuable Player, Cy Young Award winner, and Rookie of the Year in the same season. Plenty of teams have taken two out of three. 11 pitchers have won both MVP and Cy the same year. The 2019 Astros came as close as a team can come to the hat trick short of doing it with Yordan Alvarez unanimously taking Rookie honors, Justin Verlander edging out teammate Gerrit Cole for Cy, and Alex Bregman finishing runner-up to Mike Trout for MVP. The odds are against them but the 2022 Astros are back in the hunt for the unprecedented clean sweep. Alvarez has graduated to MVP contender. Verlander is alive and very well post-Tommy John surgery in pursuit of a third Cy. Jeremy Peña is the RoY candidate. Right now Yordan would be the only rightful winner in his race, but there are almost three months of season left to play.
With the Astros crossing into the second half of their regular season schedule with Thursday’s win over the Royals, the midway point is an easy spot to double counting stats for a full season projection. Alvarez ended the first half halfway to 50 home runs (Jeff Bagwell holds the franchise record with his 47 in 2000), then promptly belted number 26 in game 82. Yordan’s chief MVP competition is twofold. The Yankees’ Aaron Judge is the best player on what has clearly thus far been the best team. Yeah, well, Alvarez has an OPS 82 points higher. That’s a sizable margin. Though Judge is the better defender and baserunner. Then there’s the incredible Shohei Ohtani. The reigning AL MVP is basically Kyle Tucker at the plate and Framber Valdez on the mound. Think about that.
Also in game 82 Verlander logged his 11th win. Check my math: that’s more than halfway to 20. And with an earned run average at a sparkling even 2.00. Verlander could be worthy but lose out to a young Tampa Bay Rays lefthander, as he did in 2018 to Blake Snell. This year it’s 25 year old Shane McClanahan as the fly in the ointment. McClanahan carries a 9-3 record for a much lesser team, with his ERA at 1.74. Verlander is a cinch first ballot Hall of Famer, but a third Cy Young would pair nicely with his three no-hitters. Verlander has been the Cy runner-up three times. In 2012 another Ray (David Price) edged him out. In 2016 Rick Porcello of the Red Sox won because of his 22-4 record. For what it’s worth, Verlander had a higher WAR than Price in ’12 and than Porcello in ’16. Snell deserved his win in ’18.
In the rookie race Jeremy Peña is swimming upstream. He’s been outstanding overall but is clearly behind Seattle’s 21-year-old centerfield phenom Julio Rodriguez who has the better statistics in nearly every category with a real shot at a 30 homer 40 stolen base season. The only rookie ever to go 30/30? Mike Trout who went 30/49. Peña has also missed 19 games. Rodriguez has played in 83 of the Mariners’ 84 games to date. Attendance is part of the grade.
Rookie of the Year became an award in 1947, with Jackie Robinson the first recipient. In 1949 each league started having a winner. The Cy Young Award was first given in 1956. Only one winner for all of MLB was named until each league started having its own in 1967.
Midsummer Classic
The All-Star Game starters are named late Friday afternoon. How many Astros get to look forward to being booed at Dodger Stadium? The Astros have two very obvious winners in Alvarez at designated hitter and Jose Altuve at second base. For Altuve it’s All-Star nod number eight, breaking a tie with Craig Biggio for the franchise record. Altuve’s evolution is something. At 32 years old he's no longer a super-high batting average hitter and can’t run the way he did in his younger days. But there is no shame in a .280 batting average and the guy is a legit power monster. 31 homers in 124 games in 2019, 31 in 146 games last season, Altuve is on pace to set a new career high dinger number despite having already missed 17 games this season.
Topic for fuller breakdown in a future column: Altuve’s chances at finishing with 3000 hits and a .300 career batting average. The odds on either are not as good as they used to be. What is clear now though, Altuve has booked the extended peak years of a Hall of Fame career. How many numbers he adds on and which others suffer in his decline years will further shape where Altuve rates among the great second basemen of all-time.
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How Houston Rockets hold the cards for a franchise-changing summer
May 8, 2025, 5:45 pm
In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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