THE PALLILOG
Astros again have best chance to achieve something never before seen in MLB
Jul 8, 2022, 10:24 am
THE PALLILOG
No Major League Baseball team has ever produced its league’s Most Valuable Player, Cy Young Award winner, and Rookie of the Year in the same season. Plenty of teams have taken two out of three. 11 pitchers have won both MVP and Cy the same year. The 2019 Astros came as close as a team can come to the hat trick short of doing it with Yordan Alvarez unanimously taking Rookie honors, Justin Verlander edging out teammate Gerrit Cole for Cy, and Alex Bregman finishing runner-up to Mike Trout for MVP. The odds are against them but the 2022 Astros are back in the hunt for the unprecedented clean sweep. Alvarez has graduated to MVP contender. Verlander is alive and very well post-Tommy John surgery in pursuit of a third Cy. Jeremy Peña is the RoY candidate. Right now Yordan would be the only rightful winner in his race, but there are almost three months of season left to play.
With the Astros crossing into the second half of their regular season schedule with Thursday’s win over the Royals, the midway point is an easy spot to double counting stats for a full season projection. Alvarez ended the first half halfway to 50 home runs (Jeff Bagwell holds the franchise record with his 47 in 2000), then promptly belted number 26 in game 82. Yordan’s chief MVP competition is twofold. The Yankees’ Aaron Judge is the best player on what has clearly thus far been the best team. Yeah, well, Alvarez has an OPS 82 points higher. That’s a sizable margin. Though Judge is the better defender and baserunner. Then there’s the incredible Shohei Ohtani. The reigning AL MVP is basically Kyle Tucker at the plate and Framber Valdez on the mound. Think about that.
Also in game 82 Verlander logged his 11th win. Check my math: that’s more than halfway to 20. And with an earned run average at a sparkling even 2.00. Verlander could be worthy but lose out to a young Tampa Bay Rays lefthander, as he did in 2018 to Blake Snell. This year it’s 25 year old Shane McClanahan as the fly in the ointment. McClanahan carries a 9-3 record for a much lesser team, with his ERA at 1.74. Verlander is a cinch first ballot Hall of Famer, but a third Cy Young would pair nicely with his three no-hitters. Verlander has been the Cy runner-up three times. In 2012 another Ray (David Price) edged him out. In 2016 Rick Porcello of the Red Sox won because of his 22-4 record. For what it’s worth, Verlander had a higher WAR than Price in ’12 and than Porcello in ’16. Snell deserved his win in ’18.
In the rookie race Jeremy Peña is swimming upstream. He’s been outstanding overall but is clearly behind Seattle’s 21-year-old centerfield phenom Julio Rodriguez who has the better statistics in nearly every category with a real shot at a 30 homer 40 stolen base season. The only rookie ever to go 30/30? Mike Trout who went 30/49. Peña has also missed 19 games. Rodriguez has played in 83 of the Mariners’ 84 games to date. Attendance is part of the grade.
Rookie of the Year became an award in 1947, with Jackie Robinson the first recipient. In 1949 each league started having a winner. The Cy Young Award was first given in 1956. Only one winner for all of MLB was named until each league started having its own in 1967.
The All-Star Game starters are named late Friday afternoon. How many Astros get to look forward to being booed at Dodger Stadium? The Astros have two very obvious winners in Alvarez at designated hitter and Jose Altuve at second base. For Altuve it’s All-Star nod number eight, breaking a tie with Craig Biggio for the franchise record. Altuve’s evolution is something. At 32 years old he's no longer a super-high batting average hitter and can’t run the way he did in his younger days. But there is no shame in a .280 batting average and the guy is a legit power monster. 31 homers in 124 games in 2019, 31 in 146 games last season, Altuve is on pace to set a new career high dinger number despite having already missed 17 games this season.
Topic for fuller breakdown in a future column: Altuve’s chances at finishing with 3000 hits and a .300 career batting average. The odds on either are not as good as they used to be. What is clear now though, Altuve has booked the extended peak years of a Hall of Fame career. How many numbers he adds on and which others suffer in his decline years will further shape where Altuve rates among the great second basemen of all-time.
This week, the Houston Texans take on the Colts in a matchup with division supremacy on the line. If the Texans are able to come away with a victory, they will own the tiebreaker over Indy and enjoy a comfortable lead in the division.
However, a loss to the Colts means the Texans will be in a virtual tie with Indy in the AFC South. So what do the Texans need to do to secure a win?
On offense, they'll have to do a much better job of protecting CJ Stroud. In their last game against the Packers, Stroud faced immense pressure on third downs, with 12 of his 14 dropbacks resulting in pressure.
During one series, Stroud was flushed from the pocket and forced to scramble on three straight plays. They have to clean up the protection, or it will be another long day for the offense.
Fortunately for the Texans, this game is at home. So hopefully the communication issues the Texans o-line dealt with on the road last week won't be an issue at NRG.
Rushing attack
Houston can't afford to rely solely on Joe Mixon and the run game to carry the offense. While Mixon has been terrific, contributing significantly in recent weeks, the Texans will need a balanced attack. Which means Stroud must have time to operate in the pocket.
Bulls on parade
The defense last week was another story for the Texans. They played well against Green Bay, limiting them to 24 points. This week, they face a very different type of quarterback. Anthony Richardson is dead last in passer rating and completion percentage, so that's definitely working in their favor.
We know what Richardson can do with his legs, and Indy is expecting running back Jonathan Taylor to return from an ankle injury, so the rushing defense will be tested.
Richardson's accuracy is certainly a weakness, but he does throw a good deep ball that gave the defense problems in Week 1 this season.
What does Vegas think?
The Texans are favored by 5 points and the total is set at 45.5 points.
This is one video you don't want to miss as we share our in-depth breakdown of the game, as well as our predictions for Sunday's contest.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
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Fans of Houston sports and Houston food can now score tickets to The Tailgate, CultureMap's all-out party devoted to everyone’s favorite way to get in the gameday spirit. The event, presented by Verizon, goes down from 6-9 pm November 11 at 8th Wonder. Find out more about it here.