It's playoff time! Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images
PROBABLE STARTERS
Tue, Sept. 29 - HOU: Zack Greinke (3-3, 4.03) vs. MIN: Kenta Maeda (6-1, 2.70)
Wed, Sept. 30 - HOU: TBD vs. MIN: Jose Berrios (5-4, 4.00)
Thur, Oct. 1 - HOU: Lance McCullers (3-3, 3.93) vs. MIN: Michael Pineda (2-0, 3.38)
STORYLINES
Flip the Switch: The Astros limp into the playoffs with a 29-31 record, definitely a beneficiary of the expanded postseason picture for 2020. However, once the postseason starts, all the teams are 0-0. Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve started to show glimpses of turning the corner in the final series against the Rangers, while Kyle Tucker and George Springer carried the offense down the stretch. If those four can click combined with the ever-so-steady Michael Brantley, then the Astros have the opportunity to play spoiler in Minnesota.
Home Dreamin' vs. Road Demons: The Minnesota Twins played 24-7 baseball within the confines of Target Field, while the Houston Astros were 9-23 when they played anywhere other than the juicebox. It's certainly an ugly split, and the lack of home field advantage is definitely a factor for the Astros.
Who Chunks Up the Deuce: Zack Greinke is slated to start game one, while Lance McCullers looks poised to take the rubber in game three. One of Framber Valdez or Jose Urquidy will take the mound in game two. Urquidy was nails in the World Series last year. He's a bulldog that performs consistently and gives the team a chance to win every time he takes the hill. Look for Dusty to use Urquidy in game two, while keeping Framber available as a bridge to more trusted relievers.
Doors Open & Close: The series in Minnesota could be the last time that George Springer, Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick, and Yuli Gurriel ever suit up for the Astros. Three of those four have been key contributors in Houston since 2017, while Brantley joined the fray in 2019. World Series title or not, 2020 represents the close of the Altuve-Springer window in Houston. While it's possible Springer could come back, Altuve isn't going anywhere, and the Astros will still be good, future titles will come with a new-look roster on the backs of guys like Bregman, Tucker, and Yordan Alvarez.
With overnight temperatures dipping into the 20s this week in Houston, it seems good timing to have the warm thoughts of baseball being back, at least spring training games. The Astros have more shakiness about their squad than they have had in nearly a decade, but the Astros still have a nucleus of an American League West contender. With the exits of Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, it’s just a notably different nucleus than in recent years.
Jose Altuve is the last remaining mainstay of the greatest era in Astros’ history, and he is one of the biggest stories of their preseason as he for the time being at least is left fielder Jose Altuve. By every indication he is embracing the challenge with class and energy. The obvious impetus for test driving the move is the soon-to-be 35 years old Altuve’s defensive deterioration. It can be tough for the player himself to notice that his range has declined. The voiding of defensive shifts after the 2022 season shined a brighter light on Altuve’s D decline. Still, last season Altuve made his ninth All-Star team and despite also displaying some offensive decline remained the clearly best offensive second baseman in the American League. It’s part of the tradeoff of reducing the defensive workload on Yordan Alvarez, and hoping to upgrade defensively at second with some combo of Mauricio Dubon, Brendan Rodgers, or other.
The natural comparison in Astros’ history of a franchise icon losing his defensive spot and making a late-career position change is to Craig Biggio. Biggio’s All-Star days were behind him when the Astros moved him from second base to center field for the 2003 season because of the signing of free agent Jeff Kent. It spoke to the athlete Biggio was that at 37 years old he could make the move at all. After not quite a season and a half in center, Biggio moved to left when the Astros traded for young stud center fielder Carlos Beltran. Both Kent and Beltran left in free agency after the 2004 season, and Biggio moved back to second for the final three seasons of his career.
Second basemen are often second basemen and not shortstops in part because of their throwing arms. Altuve’s throwing arm will be an issue in left field. Even though Daikin Park has the smallest square footage of fair territory in Major League Baseball because of its left to left-center field dimensions, Altuve’s arm will be a liability. In understandably wanting to put an optimistic spin on things, manager Joe Espada and general manager Dana Brown have talked of how Altuve will be able to get momentum behind throws more so than when playing second. That’s true when camping under a fly ball in the outfield. That is not true when Altuve will have to cut off balls hit toward the left field line, or cutting across into the left-center field gap. There will be balls that would be singles when hit to other left fielders that will become doubles when Altuve has to play them, and baserunners will go from first to third and second to home much more readily. As an infielder Altuve has always been outstanding at running down pop-ups, so there is reason to believe he’ll be solid tracking fly balls in the outfield. However, the reality of a guy who is five feet six inches tall (in spikes) is that there will be the occasional fly ball or line drive that is beyond his grasp that more “normal” sized outfielders would grab. Try to name a good outfielder who stood shorter than five-foot-nine...
Here’s one: Hall of Famer Tim Raines (also originally a second baseman) was (and presumably still is!) five-foot-eight.
Here's another: Hall of Famer Hack Wilson was five-six. Four times he led the National League in home runs topped by a whopping 56 in 1930 when he set the still standing record of 191 runs batted in for a single season.
And another: Hall of Famer five-foot-four “Wee” Willie Keeler. Who last played in 1910.
Just a bit outside
Another element new to the Grapefruit League in Florida (and Cactus League in Arizona) this year is the limited use of what Major League Baseball is calling the Automated Ball Strike System. The ABS is likely coming to regular season games next year. This spring will be our first look at its use in big league games. Home plate umpires making ball and strike calls will not be going the way of the dinosaur. Challenges can be made until a team is wrong twice. Significantly, only the batter, pitcher, or catcher can challenge and must do so within two seconds of the pitch being caught. No dugout input allowed. No time to watch a replay.
The Astros’ spring park in West Palm Beach is not among the 13 facilities set up with ABS cameras. That seems silly given that the Astros share the place with the Washington Nationals. More use would be gotten from, and more data collected there than will be from a park with half the spring games played in it.
The countdown to Opening Day is on. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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