STAKES ARE HIGH
Astros turn to a familiar formula with the series on the line
Jun 12, 2025, 2:10 pm
Joe Esapda is hoping Framber Valdez can secure a series win for Houston. Composite Getty Image.
The Houston Astros (37-30) aim to close out their series against the Chicago White Sox (23-45) on a high note Thursday night at Daikin Park. The three-game set is currently tied 1-1, and with a chance to secure their 11th series win at home, the Astros will send left-hander Framber Valdez to the mound. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET.
Valdez (6-4, 3.07 ERA) has quietly been one of the most consistent arms in the American League. Known for his heavy sinker and ground-ball inducing style, he enters the night with a stellar 1.06 WHIP and 84 strikeouts. With the Astros bullpen having absorbed some heavy usage earlier this week, Valdez will be counted on to give Houston quality length.
Opposing him will be right-hander Davis Martin (2-6, 3.62 ERA), who has pitched better than his win-loss record suggests. Martin has maintained a 1.21 WHIP and will try to quiet an Astros lineup that broke out for 10 runs in Wednesday’s win.
Houston’s offense has been led lately by Jeremy Peña, who is batting .439 over his last 10 games with five doubles, two homers, and six RBIs. Isaac Paredes continues to be a steady power threat, leading the team with 14 home runs and a .468 slugging percentage. José Altuve, fresh off his 2,300th career hit, adds veteran stability to the top of the order.
The Astros are 23-13 at home this season and have gone 6-4 over their last 10 games. When they avoid giving up home runs, they win — as shown by their 20-4 record in games where they keep the ball in the yard. That will be a key Thursday against a White Sox team that’s light on power but capable of grinding out runs when they out-hit opponents (16-9 when doing so).
Chicago, meanwhile, has struggled mightily on the road, going just 7-27 away from Guaranteed Rate Field. Still, they’ve had unexpected success against the Astros this season, winning three of the first five matchups. Andrew Benintendi and Mike Tauchman have been among the few bright spots in a lineup that’s hit just .227 over its last 10 games and been outscored by six runs.
With the series on the line and the division-leading Astros looking to stay hot, Thursday night offers a chance to assert their edge with a trusted ace on the hill and momentum building in the lineup.
Here's a preview of the Astros lineup for the finale!
For the series.
⚾️: 7:10 PM
🏟️: Closed
📺: @SpaceCityHN
🎙️: @SportsTalk790 | Spanish: 93.3 FM#BuiltForThis x @reliantenergy pic.twitter.com/WsXWQV4ZkI
— Houston Astros (@astros) June 12, 2025
Christian Walker remains in the five spot after his big night in Game 2. Victor Caratini will be the DH hitting seventh behind Jake Meyers. Jose Altuve is shifting back to left field, with Jacob Melton getting the night off. And Brendan Rodgers will hit last and play second base.
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If you were hoping the Houston Astros could survive their injury avalanche without reinforcements, this past week should shake that optimism. Getting swept at home by the lowly Oakland Athletics isn’t just an embarrassment, it’s a warning flare straight to GM Dana Brown’s office.
Yes, this was a wake-up call. Houston’s offense is simply too depleted to keep treading water while waiting for reinforcements. The moment Isaac Paredes went down with a hamstring injury, the offense unraveled, and the numbers back it up. In the seven days since losing their best power bat, the Astros rank 28th in runs scored, 23rd in home runs, 25th in OPS and 20th in batting average. That’s a drastic drop-off for a team that ranks second in batting average and 12th in OPS on the season.
And it’s not just Paredes’ absence. Cam Smith, one of the Astros' brightest early-season surprises, is stuck in a deep slump. Over his last seven games, he’s hitting .087. Stretch that to 15 games, and he’s at .140 with a .175 slugging percentage. That's not a cold streak — that’s a free fall. Perhaps giving him a regular spot in the batting order might provide more stability for the rookie.
Help is on the way!
So is there any hope left? In theory, yes. The pitching cavalry is on the way. Spencer Arrighetti has one more rehab start before returning. Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia are expected to follow soon after. JP France isn’t far off either. On paper, that could give Houston the rotation depth needed for another deep October push.
But theory only takes you so far. Injuries continue to mount. Just days after praising the rotation’s resilience, Brendan Rodgers showed up with elbow inflammation and Lance McCullers Jr. landed on the IL with blister issues. If the reinforcements don’t all arrive — and perform — without setbacks, the Astros could be in real trouble.
Yordan Alvarez’s situation adds another layer of anxiety. Dana Brown might be tempted to rush him back at less than full strength, and while 75% of Yordan may still be better than some of the current options, it’s a risky bet. One wrong step could lead to a setback that erases any hope of getting him at all when it matters most.
So no, Brown can’t afford to sit on his hands at the deadline. In fact, this may be the most pivotal deadline of his tenure. With Framber Valdez likely in his final stretch in Houston and the rotation still featuring two frontline arms, the window is now.
Whether or not Brown is allowed to spend aggressively could ultimately depend on Jim Crane’s willingness to cross the luxury tax line. If he greenlights an aggressive push, the Astros have enough upside, even with the injuries, to go for it. But a quiet deadline may signal that the front office sees this team as a year away.
Bottom line: if the Astros truly believe they can get Yordan and several arms back in time for a playoff push, now is the moment to act. Because after a weekend like this, it’s clear the current version of the roster isn’t enough. We'll get our answer by Thursday's deadline.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional LIVE episode this Thursday!
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