ON PACE FOR HISTORY
An all-too-early look at Yordan Alvarez's potential career accolades
Jul 29, 2022, 7:08 pm
ON PACE FOR HISTORY
The Astros have had several call-ups in recent memory that caused a ton of hype but didn't ultimately pan out. Remember when Jon Singleton was supposed to change the franchise's direction back in 2014? On June 9th, 2019, Yordan Alvarez had similar expectations for his debut. However, unlike others who started with a bang and ultimately fizzled out, Alvarez has kept getting better the longer he's been in the league.
Everyone enjoys seeing history made, even if it comes in some outlandish combination of statistics like being the first player with certain initials to hit a home run on a specific date on the calendar. Many recognize that Alvarez is the best hitter in the league this year, but what if I told you he might go down as one of the best of all time and potentially be in the mix to break some of baseball's most sacred historical milestones?
Yordan absolutely crushed this ball! 😮 pic.twitter.com/cnpVmKo9WH
— MLB (@MLB) July 27, 2022
If you aren't familiar with it, baseball-reference.com is a terrific website for researching the stats of any player, past or present, and has a great set of all-time leaderboards, such as OPS. The threshold to get on that list is 3000 plate appearances, which is why you'll see some active players, like Mike Trout, who sits at eleventh with a 1.0001 OPS in his 5,986 career plate appearances thus far.
You probably recognize many of the names ahead of Trout, like Barry Bonds in fifth and the all-time leader, Babe Ruth, with an incredible 1.1636 OPS in his 10,626 career plate appearances. Since his 2019 debut, Alvarez has had 1,321 plate appearances, including his first complete season in 2021, where he had just shy of 600, which he's on pace to do again in 2022.
In those plate appearances, his OPS sits at .983, but he's been steadily improving that this season in his best year yet, where he leads all MLB with a 1.088, which is comprised of an AL-best .414 on-base percentage and MLB-best .674 slugging percentage. If you put him on the all-time list as he sits now, he'd beat out Mark McGwire for the 13th spot. Put him on the list with this season's 1.088, and that's good for third to move down Lou Gehrig.
There's still a long way to go in terms of potential outcomes before he gets the 1,679 additional plate appearances needed to get on the list, but where will he land when and if he gets there? If he stays healthy and gets around an average of 600 PAs per year, we could find out in just a couple of years.
Wins above replacement is a statistic that, in essence, summarizes how valuable a player is. It attempts to tell the story of the number of additional games you'd win with that player on the field versus a replacement. Albert Pujols leads active players, owning the 32nd spot at 99.5 over his 22 seasons in the majors, while Ruth leads this stat all-time with 183.1.
This stat accumulates throughout a career, ideally going up over time as a player provides consistent success for his club. For position players, this is a combination of hitting and fielding value. Alvarez increased his WAR by 3.8 points in 2021 and has already moved it up by 4.7 more in 2022, up to 12.2, which shows just how well he's been doing at the plate.
Yordan Alvarez's Career War (Fangraphs)Yordan Alvarez's Career War (Fangraphs)
Again, despite perhaps not having the fielding prowess to boost things even further, if you take that trajectory out over a lengthy and healthy career, you're talking about someone who could become one of the all-time greats. Take that crystal ball out again and do some forecasting; if he can add to his WAR at these rates over 10-15 more years, he would be in the top 50.
Alvarez already has the 2019 Rookie of the Year under his belt, was named the 2021 ALCS MVP, and received his first All-Star nomination this season. But that could be just the tip of the iceberg for this young slugger. Right now, Aaron Judge is the clear leader in the American League MVP race, and thanks to his two-way bonus, Shohei Ohtani would probably be most people's second. Yordan Alvarez is firmly in the discussion, though, and all it would take is Ohtani and Judge to finish the year on cold streaks while Alvarez keeps his current pace for him to jump on top.
Regardless, and once again, assuming he can have a long, healthy career, this will unlikely be the last time we talk about Alvarez vying for awards in the MLB. We talk, as we should, a lot about Mike Trout being a generational talent, which is the result of consistent high-level success over a lengthy career. We also try to find the next young talent to wear that crown, like the current hype surrounding players like Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Vladmir Guerrero Jr.
What if Yordan Alvarez is the one to surpass them all? Sure, it's a big if, but if the first few years of his career are any indication, it's more than possible, and we could eventually have another number retired and hanging from the rafters at Minute Maid Park.
Josh Allen has never said a bad word about Stefon Diggs. As the Buffalo Bills prepare to face their former star receiver in a visit to Houston on Sunday, he insists the two went their separate ways on good terms.
And the quarterback wasn’t changing his stance a week ago, not wanting to ruffle any feathers when asked about the early season success the Bills have enjoyed with their spread-the-ball motto on offense.
He later explained that he spoke out after reading comments on social media in which people were attempting to twist the “everybody eats” motto into something being directed at Diggs.
Allen understands why Buffalo facing Diggs for the first time since a blockbuster trade sent him to Houston this offseason is a big deal. He raved about his former teammate.
“I’ve got a lot of love for him. I still do,” Allen said. “The things that he did for me in my career, and the things that he did in a Buffalo Bill uniform won’t be forgotten anytime soon, especially from me … (but) going into Year 7, I understand the business, and the aspect of what this league is, and again, I’m just trying to focus on what we got going on in this building.”
Diggs, a four-time Pro Bowler, is second on the Texans with 25 receptions for 233 yards. He has two receiving touchdowns and had the first rushing score of his career last week against the Jaguars. He spent the last four seasons in Buffalo, where he had more than 1,100 yards receiving each year, highlighted by an NFL-leading and career-high 1,535 yards in 2020.
He didn’t address Allen directly this week when talking about his time in Buffalo. Diggs did say his tenure with the Bills was “amazing” but that he’s solely focused on his future now and not interested in rehashing the past.
“A lot of other people are going to feel a way or have a lot to say about X, Y, Z, and I’m not mad at it,” he said Wednesday. “Football is a very emotional sport. I go in there and wear my heart on my sleeve, and I won’t stop, but for me, I block out the noise.”
“Nobody is going to run the routes but me,” he continued. “Nobody is going to watch the tape but me. I try not to get back into the back and forth about the opinions or how people feel. I’ve got a job to do; I try to get it done.”
Diggs has helped the Texans to a 3-1 start and Allen hasn’t missed a beat without him. The Bills also are 3-1, though they’re looking to bounce back after a 35-10 loss to the Ravens last week.
Texans coach DeMeco Ryans certainly knew how talented Diggs was when he arrived in Houston but said he has been pleasantly surprised to see his passion for the game.
“He loves football … you see it in the way he practices, the way he plays the game,” Ryans said. “He loves ball, he plays with effort and that is all you want.”
Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady was still kicking himself for calling a trick play that backfired, squelching any chance of a Buffalo rally in the loss to Baltimore.
After opening the second half with a TD to cut the deficit to 21-10, the Bills faced second-and-7 at the Baltimore 44, when receiver Curtis Samuel took a direct snap and pitched the ball to Allen. The Ravens weren’t fooled and forced a fumble, which led to a TD six plays later.
“I probably can’t say it on Zoom,” Brady said when asked to sum up the call in one word. “There’s no excuses. I can give the justification of why it was on the call sheet, but at the end of the day, the timing was not what it should’ve been and it was costly.”
While much of the focus this week has been on Diggs facing his former team, the star of Houston’s offense so far this season has been another receiver. Nico Collins had a career-high 12 catches for 151 yards and a touchdown against the Jaguars for his third 100-yard game this season. He leads the NFL with 489 yards receiving and is the first player in franchise history with more than 450 yards receiving though the first four games.
“He’s a strong, physical, fast, and big receiver,” Ryans said. “That’s an easy target for C.J. (Stroud) and Nico has showed up every time that we needed him.”
In the Bills’ “everybody eats” motto on offense, Samuel has had difficulty finding a regular place at the table. The eighth-year player who enjoyed his best season in Carolina under Brady as the Panthers coordinator in 2020 has been limited to eight catches for 48 yards. More curious is Samuel has been on the field for only 68 of a total of 230 offensive snaps.
“We’d love to get him going and whether or not Khalil is in or out this week,” Allen said, referring to receiver Khalil Shakir, who is nursing a right ankle injury. “So we’re going to be calling on his number, and he is going to have to step up, make some plays, which we’ve got no doubt in his ability.”
Update: Shakir has been ruled out (ankle) for Sunday's game.