ON PACE FOR HISTORY

An all-too-early look at Yordan Alvarez's potential career accolades

Yordan Alvarez Astros
Yordan Alvarez is special. Composite photo by Brandon Strange.

The Astros have had several call-ups in recent memory that caused a ton of hype but didn't ultimately pan out. Remember when Jon Singleton was supposed to change the franchise's direction back in 2014? On June 9th, 2019, Yordan Alvarez had similar expectations for his debut. However, unlike others who started with a bang and ultimately fizzled out, Alvarez has kept getting better the longer he's been in the league.

Everyone enjoys seeing history made, even if it comes in some outlandish combination of statistics like being the first player with certain initials to hit a home run on a specific date on the calendar. Many recognize that Alvarez is the best hitter in the league this year, but what if I told you he might go down as one of the best of all time and potentially be in the mix to break some of baseball's most sacred historical milestones?

An all-time OPS

If you aren't familiar with it, baseball-reference.com is a terrific website for researching the stats of any player, past or present, and has a great set of all-time leaderboards, such as OPS. The threshold to get on that list is 3000 plate appearances, which is why you'll see some active players, like Mike Trout, who sits at eleventh with a 1.0001 OPS in his 5,986 career plate appearances thus far.

You probably recognize many of the names ahead of Trout, like Barry Bonds in fifth and the all-time leader, Babe Ruth, with an incredible 1.1636 OPS in his 10,626 career plate appearances. Since his 2019 debut, Alvarez has had 1,321 plate appearances, including his first complete season in 2021, where he had just shy of 600, which he's on pace to do again in 2022.

In those plate appearances, his OPS sits at .983, but he's been steadily improving that this season in his best year yet, where he leads all MLB with a 1.088, which is comprised of an AL-best .414 on-base percentage and MLB-best .674 slugging percentage. If you put him on the all-time list as he sits now, he'd beat out Mark McGwire for the 13th spot. Put him on the list with this season's 1.088, and that's good for third to move down Lou Gehrig.

There's still a long way to go in terms of potential outcomes before he gets the 1,679 additional plate appearances needed to get on the list, but where will he land when and if he gets there? If he stays healthy and gets around an average of 600 PAs per year, we could find out in just a couple of years.

The pinnacle of all stats - WAR

Wins above replacement is a statistic that, in essence, summarizes how valuable a player is. It attempts to tell the story of the number of additional games you'd win with that player on the field versus a replacement. Albert Pujols leads active players, owning the 32nd spot at 99.5 over his 22 seasons in the majors, while Ruth leads this stat all-time with 183.1.

This stat accumulates throughout a career, ideally going up over time as a player provides consistent success for his club. For position players, this is a combination of hitting and fielding value. Alvarez increased his WAR by 3.8 points in 2021 and has already moved it up by 4.7 more in 2022, up to 12.2, which shows just how well he's been doing at the plate.

Yordan Alvarez's Career War (Fangraphs)Yordan Alvarez's Career War (Fangraphs)Yordan Alvarez's Career War (Fangraphs)

Again, despite perhaps not having the fielding prowess to boost things even further, if you take that trajectory out over a lengthy and healthy career, you're talking about someone who could become one of the all-time greats. Take that crystal ball out again and do some forecasting; if he can add to his WAR at these rates over 10-15 more years, he would be in the top 50.

Make room in the trophy case

Alvarez already has the 2019 Rookie of the Year under his belt, was named the 2021 ALCS MVP, and received his first All-Star nomination this season. But that could be just the tip of the iceberg for this young slugger. Right now, Aaron Judge is the clear leader in the American League MVP race, and thanks to his two-way bonus, Shohei Ohtani would probably be most people's second. Yordan Alvarez is firmly in the discussion, though, and all it would take is Ohtani and Judge to finish the year on cold streaks while Alvarez keeps his current pace for him to jump on top.

Regardless, and once again, assuming he can have a long, healthy career, this will unlikely be the last time we talk about Alvarez vying for awards in the MLB. We talk, as we should, a lot about Mike Trout being a generational talent, which is the result of consistent high-level success over a lengthy career. We also try to find the next young talent to wear that crown, like the current hype surrounding players like Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Vladmir Guerrero Jr.

What if Yordan Alvarez is the one to surpass them all? Sure, it's a big if, but if the first few years of his career are any indication, it's more than possible, and we could eventually have another number retired and hanging from the rafters at Minute Maid Park.

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Coogs finish as a No.1 seed. Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images.

Houston has a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year, but will have to navigate the likes of Duke, Kentucky and Marquette in the South Region if the Cougars are able to make their first Final Four since 2021.

The Cougars (30-4) were rewarded on Sunday after winning the Big 12 regular-season title and reached the conference tournament title game before losing to Iowa State. They will face No. 16 seed Longwood, the Big South champion, in Memphis, Tennessee, in the first round on Thursday.

Houston is a No. 1 seed for the third time in school history, joining the 1983 team that reached the national championship game and last season when the Cougars were bounced by Miami in the Sweet 16. Should the Cougars advance past the first weekend — a Longwood win would bring a matchup with either Nebraska or Texas A&M — they’ll only need to head up Interstate 45 to Dallas for the regional.

The Cougars will be trying to rebound after getting blown out by the Cyclones in the Big 12 title game. It was the largest margin of defeat for a No. 1 team since UCLA beat Houston by 32 in the 1968 Final Four. Houston was riding an 11-game win streak before the loss.

“We’ll pick ourselves up. We’ve had a great year," Houston coach Kelvin Sampson said after the Iowa State loss. “Obviously 40 minutes is not going to define three months, but we’ll get some guys treatment and healthy and get back at it.”

The South Region also features No. 2 seed Marquette, who will get standout Tyler Kolek back after he missed the Big East Tournament due to an oblique injury. The Golden Eagles (25-9) reached the Big East title game before falling to UConn.

Kentucky (23-9) is the No. 3 seed in the region and will open against No. 14 seed Oakland. Duke (24-8) rounds out the top-four seeds in the region and will face No. 13 seed Vermont in the first round in Brooklyn, New York on Friday.

KOLEK CONCERN

Marquette coach Shaka Smart expressed cautious optimism on Sunday that Kolek, the 2023 Big East player of the year, would play in the NCAA opener. Kolek has missed Marquette’s last six games with an oblique injury. The Golden Eagles will face No. 15 seed Western Kentucky (22-11) on Friday in Indianapolis.

“The plan is for him to play, but he’s got to go through a progression this week,” Smart said Sunday.

Smart relayed a story that after the team returned from New York following the Big East title game, Kolek was already going back into the gym to do some ball handling.

“So he has a level of excitement and passion because he feels like he’s going to play. Now we’ve just got to check the boxes we need to check so he can,” Smart said.

Marquette went 3-3 in Kolek’s absence, with two of the losses coming to UConn and the other coming at Creighton.

The Golden Eagles have other injury issues as well. Oso Ighodaro sat out the last seven minutes of the Big East championship game loss he appeared to hurt his knee, and Stevie Mitchell was wearing a brace on his right shoulder during that game.

Smart expects both to play Friday.

POWER CHAMPION

The South Region features only one team from a power conference that won its conference tournament title. And it’s a team that wasn’t going to make the NCAAs if not for its tournament run.

North Carolina State is the No. 11 seed in the region after its stunning run to the ACC tournament title winning five games in five days including upset wins over rivals Duke and North Carolina in the semifinals and championship game respectively. It was N.C. State’s first ACC title since 1987.

The Wolfpack will face No. 6 seed Texas Tech in Pittsburgh.

30 CLUB

Four teams enter the NCAAs with at least 30 victories. Two of them reside in the South Region.

Houston is one of them. The other is James Madison, the champion of the Sun Belt Conference tournament and the hottest team in the country entering the NCAAs. James Madison is the No. 12 seed and will face No. 5 seed Wisconsin on Friday in Brooklyn.

The Dukes went 31-3, knocked off Arkansas State in the Sun Belt championship game and are riding a 13-game win streak. James Madison started the season with a 14-game win streak before its first setback.

It’s the sixth NCAA appearance for James Madison and the first since 2013. And the Dukes’ can score – they average 84.4 points per game, good for ninth nationally.

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