ON PACE FOR HISTORY

An all-too-early look at Yordan Alvarez's potential career accolades

Yordan Alvarez Astros
Yordan Alvarez is special. Composite photo by Brandon Strange.

The Astros have had several call-ups in recent memory that caused a ton of hype but didn't ultimately pan out. Remember when Jon Singleton was supposed to change the franchise's direction back in 2014? On June 9th, 2019, Yordan Alvarez had similar expectations for his debut. However, unlike others who started with a bang and ultimately fizzled out, Alvarez has kept getting better the longer he's been in the league.

Everyone enjoys seeing history made, even if it comes in some outlandish combination of statistics like being the first player with certain initials to hit a home run on a specific date on the calendar. Many recognize that Alvarez is the best hitter in the league this year, but what if I told you he might go down as one of the best of all time and potentially be in the mix to break some of baseball's most sacred historical milestones?

An all-time OPS

If you aren't familiar with it, baseball-reference.com is a terrific website for researching the stats of any player, past or present, and has a great set of all-time leaderboards, such as OPS. The threshold to get on that list is 3000 plate appearances, which is why you'll see some active players, like Mike Trout, who sits at eleventh with a 1.0001 OPS in his 5,986 career plate appearances thus far.

You probably recognize many of the names ahead of Trout, like Barry Bonds in fifth and the all-time leader, Babe Ruth, with an incredible 1.1636 OPS in his 10,626 career plate appearances. Since his 2019 debut, Alvarez has had 1,321 plate appearances, including his first complete season in 2021, where he had just shy of 600, which he's on pace to do again in 2022.

In those plate appearances, his OPS sits at .983, but he's been steadily improving that this season in his best year yet, where he leads all MLB with a 1.088, which is comprised of an AL-best .414 on-base percentage and MLB-best .674 slugging percentage. If you put him on the all-time list as he sits now, he'd beat out Mark McGwire for the 13th spot. Put him on the list with this season's 1.088, and that's good for third to move down Lou Gehrig.

There's still a long way to go in terms of potential outcomes before he gets the 1,679 additional plate appearances needed to get on the list, but where will he land when and if he gets there? If he stays healthy and gets around an average of 600 PAs per year, we could find out in just a couple of years.

The pinnacle of all stats - WAR

Wins above replacement is a statistic that, in essence, summarizes how valuable a player is. It attempts to tell the story of the number of additional games you'd win with that player on the field versus a replacement. Albert Pujols leads active players, owning the 32nd spot at 99.5 over his 22 seasons in the majors, while Ruth leads this stat all-time with 183.1.

This stat accumulates throughout a career, ideally going up over time as a player provides consistent success for his club. For position players, this is a combination of hitting and fielding value. Alvarez increased his WAR by 3.8 points in 2021 and has already moved it up by 4.7 more in 2022, up to 12.2, which shows just how well he's been doing at the plate.

Yordan Alvarez's Career War (Fangraphs)Yordan Alvarez's Career War (Fangraphs)Yordan Alvarez's Career War (Fangraphs)

Again, despite perhaps not having the fielding prowess to boost things even further, if you take that trajectory out over a lengthy and healthy career, you're talking about someone who could become one of the all-time greats. Take that crystal ball out again and do some forecasting; if he can add to his WAR at these rates over 10-15 more years, he would be in the top 50.

Make room in the trophy case

Alvarez already has the 2019 Rookie of the Year under his belt, was named the 2021 ALCS MVP, and received his first All-Star nomination this season. But that could be just the tip of the iceberg for this young slugger. Right now, Aaron Judge is the clear leader in the American League MVP race, and thanks to his two-way bonus, Shohei Ohtani would probably be most people's second. Yordan Alvarez is firmly in the discussion, though, and all it would take is Ohtani and Judge to finish the year on cold streaks while Alvarez keeps his current pace for him to jump on top.

Regardless, and once again, assuming he can have a long, healthy career, this will unlikely be the last time we talk about Alvarez vying for awards in the MLB. We talk, as we should, a lot about Mike Trout being a generational talent, which is the result of consistent high-level success over a lengthy career. We also try to find the next young talent to wear that crown, like the current hype surrounding players like Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Vladmir Guerrero Jr.

What if Yordan Alvarez is the one to surpass them all? Sure, it's a big if, but if the first few years of his career are any indication, it's more than possible, and we could eventually have another number retired and hanging from the rafters at Minute Maid Park.

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Christian Walker got on base twice in the opener. Composite Getty Image.

The Houston Astros return to action Wednesday night with a chance to get back on track and even their three-game set against the visiting Chicago White Sox.

White Sox continue to have Houston's number

After falling 4–2 in Tuesday’s opener, the Astros now trail the season series 3–1 and will turn to Ryan Gusto (3-3, 4.78 ERA) in hopes of steadying the ship and reinforcing their grip on first place in the AL West.

Houston enters the matchup at 36–30 overall and 22–13 at home, a mark that reflects just how comfortable they've been playing in front of their fans. Though the offense has been inconsistent at times, the Astros are an impressive 19–4 when they manage to keep the ball in the yard — a stat that will be key with Gusto on the mound. The young right-hander has had an up-and-down season, but he'll be tasked with limiting a White Sox offense that did just enough to sneak away with a win in the opener.

Chicago, meanwhile, continues to play with a bit of unexpected edge despite sitting in last place in the AL Central. At 23–44, the White Sox have struggled most of the season — particularly on the road, where they’re just 7–26. Still, they've now won four of their last five games and will hand the ball to Sean Burke (3-6, 4.03 ERA), a righty who’s shown flashes of command and competitiveness in his rookie campaign.

The Astros will once again lean on their veterans to lead the way at the plate. Jose Altuve continues to be a consistent presence at the top of the lineup with nine home runs and 24 RBIs on the year. Yainer Diaz, who’s 10-for-39 with three home runs over his last 10 games, has started to find his swing again and could be a factor in the middle of the order. Houston will need more of that timely hitting if they want to avoid dropping their second straight at home — something that hasn’t happened often this year.

On the other side, Chase Meidroth has quietly become one of Chicago’s more reliable bats. Hitting .293 with five doubles and a pair of homers, Meidroth’s emergence adds some much-needed spark to a lineup that’s lacked consistency. Andrew Benintendi, hitting .257 over his last 10 games with four doubles, has also begun to warm up at the plate.

Both teams come in with nearly identical offensive production over their last 10 games — the Astros hitting .227 to the White Sox’s .226 — but Houston holds the edge in ERA at 3.44 compared to Chicago’s 4.04. That said, the Astros have been outscored by five runs over that stretch, and will need to clean up a few things on both sides of the ball to avoid falling into a mini-slide during this six-game homestand.

First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET from Daikin Park, with Houston looking to reassert itself against a team it hasn’t solved yet this season. A win would not only even the series — it would also be a reminder that the Astros remain very much in control of their own narrative heading into the summer grind.

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK LINE: Astros -181, White Sox +150; over/under is 8 1/2 runs.

Here's an early look at Houston's lineup for Game 2

Jacob Melton is hitting last and remains the left fielder with Altuve back at second base. Diaz is once again in the cleanup spot as Walker is hitting fifth. Victor Caratini will hit behind Walker and serve as the DH. Otherwise, a pretty typical lineup for Joe Espada's club.


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