ON PACE FOR HISTORY

An all-too-early look at Yordan Alvarez's potential career accolades

Yordan Alvarez Astros
Yordan Alvarez is special. Composite photo by Brandon Strange.

The Astros have had several call-ups in recent memory that caused a ton of hype but didn't ultimately pan out. Remember when Jon Singleton was supposed to change the franchise's direction back in 2014? On June 9th, 2019, Yordan Alvarez had similar expectations for his debut. However, unlike others who started with a bang and ultimately fizzled out, Alvarez has kept getting better the longer he's been in the league.

Everyone enjoys seeing history made, even if it comes in some outlandish combination of statistics like being the first player with certain initials to hit a home run on a specific date on the calendar. Many recognize that Alvarez is the best hitter in the league this year, but what if I told you he might go down as one of the best of all time and potentially be in the mix to break some of baseball's most sacred historical milestones?

An all-time OPS

 

If you aren't familiar with it, baseball-reference.com is a terrific website for researching the stats of any player, past or present, and has a great set of all-time leaderboards, such as OPS. The threshold to get on that list is 3000 plate appearances, which is why you'll see some active players, like Mike Trout, who sits at eleventh with a 1.0001 OPS in his 5,986 career plate appearances thus far.

You probably recognize many of the names ahead of Trout, like Barry Bonds in fifth and the all-time leader, Babe Ruth, with an incredible 1.1636 OPS in his 10,626 career plate appearances. Since his 2019 debut, Alvarez has had 1,321 plate appearances, including his first complete season in 2021, where he had just shy of 600, which he's on pace to do again in 2022.

In those plate appearances, his OPS sits at .983, but he's been steadily improving that this season in his best year yet, where he leads all MLB with a 1.088, which is comprised of an AL-best .414 on-base percentage and MLB-best .674 slugging percentage. If you put him on the all-time list as he sits now, he'd beat out Mark McGwire for the 13th spot. Put him on the list with this season's 1.088, and that's good for third to move down Lou Gehrig.

There's still a long way to go in terms of potential outcomes before he gets the 1,679 additional plate appearances needed to get on the list, but where will he land when and if he gets there? If he stays healthy and gets around an average of 600 PAs per year, we could find out in just a couple of years.

The pinnacle of all stats - WAR

Wins above replacement is a statistic that, in essence, summarizes how valuable a player is. It attempts to tell the story of the number of additional games you'd win with that player on the field versus a replacement. Albert Pujols leads active players, owning the 32nd spot at 99.5 over his 22 seasons in the majors, while Ruth leads this stat all-time with 183.1.

This stat accumulates throughout a career, ideally going up over time as a player provides consistent success for his club. For position players, this is a combination of hitting and fielding value. Alvarez increased his WAR by 3.8 points in 2021 and has already moved it up by 4.7 more in 2022, up to 12.2, which shows just how well he's been doing at the plate.

Yordan Alvarez's Career War (Fangraphs)Yordan Alvarez's Career War (Fangraphs)Yordan Alvarez's Career War (Fangraphs)

Again, despite perhaps not having the fielding prowess to boost things even further, if you take that trajectory out over a lengthy and healthy career, you're talking about someone who could become one of the all-time greats. Take that crystal ball out again and do some forecasting; if he can add to his WAR at these rates over 10-15 more years, he would be in the top 50.

Make room in the trophy case

Alvarez already has the 2019 Rookie of the Year under his belt, was named the 2021 ALCS MVP, and received his first All-Star nomination this season. But that could be just the tip of the iceberg for this young slugger. Right now, Aaron Judge is the clear leader in the American League MVP race, and thanks to his two-way bonus, Shohei Ohtani would probably be most people's second. Yordan Alvarez is firmly in the discussion, though, and all it would take is Ohtani and Judge to finish the year on cold streaks while Alvarez keeps his current pace for him to jump on top.

Regardless, and once again, assuming he can have a long, healthy career, this will unlikely be the last time we talk about Alvarez vying for awards in the MLB. We talk, as we should, a lot about Mike Trout being a generational talent, which is the result of consistent high-level success over a lengthy career. We also try to find the next young talent to wear that crown, like the current hype surrounding players like Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Vladmir Guerrero Jr.

What if Yordan Alvarez is the one to surpass them all? Sure, it's a big if, but if the first few years of his career are any indication, it's more than possible, and we could eventually have another number retired and hanging from the rafters at Minute Maid Park.

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Can top prospect Brice Matthews give Houston a boost? Composite Getty Image.

What looked like a minor blip after an emotional series win in Los Angeles has turned into something more concerning for the Houston Astros.

Swept at home by a Guardians team that came in riding a 10-game losing streak, the Astros were left looking exposed. Not exhausted, as injuries, underperformance, and questionable decision-making converged to hand Houston one of its most frustrating series losses of the year.

 

Depth finally runs dry

 

It would be easy to point to a “Dodger hangover” as the culprit, the emotional peak of an 18-1 win at Chavez Ravine followed by a mental lull. But that’s not the story here.

Houston’s energy was still evident, especially in the first two games of the series, where the offense scored five or more runs each time. Including those, the Astros had reached that mark in eight of their last 10 games heading into Wednesday’s finale.

But scoring isn’t everything, not when a lineup held together by duct tape and desperation is missing Christian Walker and Jake Meyers and getting critical at-bats from Cooper Hummel, Zack Short, and other journeymen.

The lack of depth finally showed. The Astros, for three days, looked more like a Triple-A squad with Jose Altuve and a couple big-league regulars sprinkled in.

 

Cracks in the pitching core

 

And the thing that had been keeping this team afloat, elite pitching, finally buckled.

Hunter Brown and Josh Hader, both dominant all season, finally cracked. Brown gave up six runs in six innings, raising his pristine 1.82 ERA to 2.21. Hader wasn’t spared either, coughing up a game-losing grand slam in extra innings that inflated his ERA from 1.80 to 2.38 in one night.

But the struggles weren’t isolated. Bennett Sousa, Kaleb Ort, and Steven Okert each gave up runs at critical moments. The bullpen’s collective fade could not have come at a worse time for a team already walking a tightrope.

 

Injury handling under fire

 

Houston’s injury management is also drawing heat, and rightfully so. Jake Meyers, who had been nursing a calf strain, started Wednesday’s finale. He didn’t even make it through one pitch before aggravating the injury and needing to be helped off the field.

No imaging before playing him. No cautionary rest despite the All-Star break looming. Just a rushed return in a banged-up lineup, and it backfired immediately.

Second-guessing has turned to outright criticism of the Astros’ medical staff, as fans and analysts alike wonder whether these mounting injuries are being made worse by how the club is handling them.

 

Pressure mounts on Dana Brown

 

All eyes now turn to Astros GM Dana Brown. The Astros are limping into the break with no clear reinforcements on the immediate horizon. Only Chas McCormick is currently rehabbing in Sugar Land. Everyone else? Still sidelined.

Brown will need to act — and soon.

At a minimum, calling up top prospect Brice Matthews makes sense. He’s been mashing in Triple-A (.283/.400/.476, 10 HR, .876 OPS) and could play second base while Jose Altuve shifts to left field more regularly. With Mauricio Dubón stretched thin between shortstop and center, injecting Matthews’ upside into the infield is a logical step.

*Editor's note: The Astros must be listening, Matthews was called up Thursday afternoon!

 

There’s also trade chatter, most notably about Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins, but excitement has been tepid. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but compared to who the Astros are fielding now, Mullins would be a clear upgrade and a much-needed big-league presence.

 

A final test before the break

 

Before the All-Star reset, Houston gets one last chance to stabilize the ship, and it comes in the form of a rivalry series against the Texas Rangers. The Astros will send their top trio — Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, and Hunter Brown — to the mound for a three-game set that will test their resolve, their health, and perhaps their postseason aspirations.

The Silver Boot is up for grabs. So is momentum. And maybe, clarity on just how far this version of the Astros can go.

There's so much more to discuss! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!

The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.

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*ChatGPT assisted.

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