ON PACE FOR HISTORY

An all-too-early look at Yordan Alvarez's potential career accolades

Yordan Alvarez Astros
Yordan Alvarez is special. Composite photo by Brandon Strange.

The Astros have had several call-ups in recent memory that caused a ton of hype but didn't ultimately pan out. Remember when Jon Singleton was supposed to change the franchise's direction back in 2014? On June 9th, 2019, Yordan Alvarez had similar expectations for his debut. However, unlike others who started with a bang and ultimately fizzled out, Alvarez has kept getting better the longer he's been in the league.

Everyone enjoys seeing history made, even if it comes in some outlandish combination of statistics like being the first player with certain initials to hit a home run on a specific date on the calendar. Many recognize that Alvarez is the best hitter in the league this year, but what if I told you he might go down as one of the best of all time and potentially be in the mix to break some of baseball's most sacred historical milestones?

An all-time OPS

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If you aren't familiar with it, baseball-reference.com is a terrific website for researching the stats of any player, past or present, and has a great set of all-time leaderboards, such as OPS. The threshold to get on that list is 3000 plate appearances, which is why you'll see some active players, like Mike Trout, who sits at eleventh with a 1.0001 OPS in his 5,986 career plate appearances thus far.

You probably recognize many of the names ahead of Trout, like Barry Bonds in fifth and the all-time leader, Babe Ruth, with an incredible 1.1636 OPS in his 10,626 career plate appearances. Since his 2019 debut, Alvarez has had 1,321 plate appearances, including his first complete season in 2021, where he had just shy of 600, which he's on pace to do again in 2022.

In those plate appearances, his OPS sits at .983, but he's been steadily improving that this season in his best year yet, where he leads all MLB with a 1.088, which is comprised of an AL-best .414 on-base percentage and MLB-best .674 slugging percentage. If you put him on the all-time list as he sits now, he'd beat out Mark McGwire for the 13th spot. Put him on the list with this season's 1.088, and that's good for third to move down Lou Gehrig.

There's still a long way to go in terms of potential outcomes before he gets the 1,679 additional plate appearances needed to get on the list, but where will he land when and if he gets there? If he stays healthy and gets around an average of 600 PAs per year, we could find out in just a couple of years.

The pinnacle of all stats - WAR

Wins above replacement is a statistic that, in essence, summarizes how valuable a player is. It attempts to tell the story of the number of additional games you'd win with that player on the field versus a replacement. Albert Pujols leads active players, owning the 32nd spot at 99.5 over his 22 seasons in the majors, while Ruth leads this stat all-time with 183.1.

This stat accumulates throughout a career, ideally going up over time as a player provides consistent success for his club. For position players, this is a combination of hitting and fielding value. Alvarez increased his WAR by 3.8 points in 2021 and has already moved it up by 4.7 more in 2022, up to 12.2, which shows just how well he's been doing at the plate.

Yordan Alvarez's Career War (Fangraphs)Yordan Alvarez's Career War (Fangraphs)Yordan Alvarez's Career War (Fangraphs)

Again, despite perhaps not having the fielding prowess to boost things even further, if you take that trajectory out over a lengthy and healthy career, you're talking about someone who could become one of the all-time greats. Take that crystal ball out again and do some forecasting; if he can add to his WAR at these rates over 10-15 more years, he would be in the top 50.

Make room in the trophy case

Alvarez already has the 2019 Rookie of the Year under his belt, was named the 2021 ALCS MVP, and received his first All-Star nomination this season. But that could be just the tip of the iceberg for this young slugger. Right now, Aaron Judge is the clear leader in the American League MVP race, and thanks to his two-way bonus, Shohei Ohtani would probably be most people's second. Yordan Alvarez is firmly in the discussion, though, and all it would take is Ohtani and Judge to finish the year on cold streaks while Alvarez keeps his current pace for him to jump on top.

Regardless, and once again, assuming he can have a long, healthy career, this will unlikely be the last time we talk about Alvarez vying for awards in the MLB. We talk, as we should, a lot about Mike Trout being a generational talent, which is the result of consistent high-level success over a lengthy career. We also try to find the next young talent to wear that crown, like the current hype surrounding players like Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Vladmir Guerrero Jr.

What if Yordan Alvarez is the one to surpass them all? Sure, it's a big if, but if the first few years of his career are any indication, it's more than possible, and we could eventually have another number retired and hanging from the rafters at Minute Maid Park.

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Carlos Correa is back!. Photo by Elsa/Getty Images.

The Houston Astros kick off a pivotal weekend series against the Boston Red Sox on Friday night at Fenway Park — and they'll do so with a familiar face back in the lineup. Carlos Correa, reacquired in a stunning trade deadline move on Thursday, is set to make his return to the Astros and will hit cleanup in his first game back with the team that drafted him No. 1 overall in 2012.

Correa rejoins a Houston club that sits atop the AL West at 62-47 and is coming off a resounding 9-1 win over Washington on Wednesday, fueled by Jose Altuve’s four-hit performance. The Astros are 27-23 on the road and enter Friday with the fourth-best on-base percentage in the American League (.321).

The Red Sox, meanwhile, have won six of their last 10 games and hold a 34-21 record at home. Boston enters the weekend third in the competitive AL East at 59-51. Outfielder Jarren Duran has been a spark plug, hitting .265 with 29 doubles and 12 triples on the year.

Houston will send right-hander Hunter Brown (9-5) to the mound, while Boston will counter with RHP Cooper Criswell (1-0).

Friday marks the first meeting of the season between these two clubs.

All eyes will be on Correa’s return in a stadium where he’s delivered countless postseason moments. Now, he begins the next chapter of his Astros career, joining a team counting on him to help fuel their playoff push.

Starting lineup

So how will Joe Espada deploy his new toys? Pena is back at shortstop and leading off, with Altuve hitting second and serving as the DH. Jesus Sanchez gets his first Astros, start hitting third, and playing left field. Correa begins his Astros reunion hitting fourth and playing third base.

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Yainer Diaz (C) will hit fifth, followed by Christian Walker (1B), and Taylor Trammell (CF). It's interesting to see Cam Smith hitting so far down the lineup at eighth. He'll play right field and finally, Mauricio Dubon will hit ninth and play second base.

Betting odds

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK LINE: Astros -134, Red Sox +113; over/under is 8 runs


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