ON PACE FOR HISTORY
An all-too-early look at Yordan Alvarez's potential career accolades
Jul 29, 2022, 7:08 pm
The Astros have had several call-ups in recent memory that caused a ton of hype but didn't ultimately pan out. Remember when Jon Singleton was supposed to change the franchise's direction back in 2014? On June 9th, 2019, Yordan Alvarez had similar expectations for his debut. However, unlike others who started with a bang and ultimately fizzled out, Alvarez has kept getting better the longer he's been in the league.
Everyone enjoys seeing history made, even if it comes in some outlandish combination of statistics like being the first player with certain initials to hit a home run on a specific date on the calendar. Many recognize that Alvarez is the best hitter in the league this year, but what if I told you he might go down as one of the best of all time and potentially be in the mix to break some of baseball's most sacred historical milestones?
An all-time OPS
If you aren't familiar with it, baseball-reference.com is a terrific website for researching the stats of any player, past or present, and has a great set of all-time leaderboards, such as OPS. The threshold to get on that list is 3000 plate appearances, which is why you'll see some active players, like Mike Trout, who sits at eleventh with a 1.0001 OPS in his 5,986 career plate appearances thus far.
You probably recognize many of the names ahead of Trout, like Barry Bonds in fifth and the all-time leader, Babe Ruth, with an incredible 1.1636 OPS in his 10,626 career plate appearances. Since his 2019 debut, Alvarez has had 1,321 plate appearances, including his first complete season in 2021, where he had just shy of 600, which he's on pace to do again in 2022.
In those plate appearances, his OPS sits at .983, but he's been steadily improving that this season in his best year yet, where he leads all MLB with a 1.088, which is comprised of an AL-best .414 on-base percentage and MLB-best .674 slugging percentage. If you put him on the all-time list as he sits now, he'd beat out Mark McGwire for the 13th spot. Put him on the list with this season's 1.088, and that's good for third to move down Lou Gehrig.
There's still a long way to go in terms of potential outcomes before he gets the 1,679 additional plate appearances needed to get on the list, but where will he land when and if he gets there? If he stays healthy and gets around an average of 600 PAs per year, we could find out in just a couple of years.
The pinnacle of all stats - WAR
Wins above replacement is a statistic that, in essence, summarizes how valuable a player is. It attempts to tell the story of the number of additional games you'd win with that player on the field versus a replacement. Albert Pujols leads active players, owning the 32nd spot at 99.5 over his 22 seasons in the majors, while Ruth leads this stat all-time with 183.1.
This stat accumulates throughout a career, ideally going up over time as a player provides consistent success for his club. For position players, this is a combination of hitting and fielding value. Alvarez increased his WAR by 3.8 points in 2021 and has already moved it up by 4.7 more in 2022, up to 12.2, which shows just how well he's been doing at the plate.
Yordan Alvarez's Career War (Fangraphs)Yordan Alvarez's Career War (Fangraphs)
Again, despite perhaps not having the fielding prowess to boost things even further, if you take that trajectory out over a lengthy and healthy career, you're talking about someone who could become one of the all-time greats. Take that crystal ball out again and do some forecasting; if he can add to his WAR at these rates over 10-15 more years, he would be in the top 50.
Make room in the trophy case
Alvarez already has the 2019 Rookie of the Year under his belt, was named the 2021 ALCS MVP, and received his first All-Star nomination this season. But that could be just the tip of the iceberg for this young slugger. Right now, Aaron Judge is the clear leader in the American League MVP race, and thanks to his two-way bonus, Shohei Ohtani would probably be most people's second. Yordan Alvarez is firmly in the discussion, though, and all it would take is Ohtani and Judge to finish the year on cold streaks while Alvarez keeps his current pace for him to jump on top.
Regardless, and once again, assuming he can have a long, healthy career, this will unlikely be the last time we talk about Alvarez vying for awards in the MLB. We talk, as we should, a lot about Mike Trout being a generational talent, which is the result of consistent high-level success over a lengthy career. We also try to find the next young talent to wear that crown, like the current hype surrounding players like Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Vladmir Guerrero Jr.
What if Yordan Alvarez is the one to surpass them all? Sure, it's a big if, but if the first few years of his career are any indication, it's more than possible, and we could eventually have another number retired and hanging from the rafters at Minute Maid Park.
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The Houston Astros return to Daikin Park on Friday night looking to end a three-game home losing streak as they open a three-game set against the Los Angeles Angels.
Ronel Blanco takes the mound for Houston, aiming to bounce back after a rough start to his season. The right-hander is 0-1 with a 9.45 ERA and a 2.10 WHIP through his first two outings. He’ll be opposed by Angels rookie Jack Kochanowicz, who has impressed early with a 3.27 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and eight strikeouts.
The Astros enter the night at 5-7, sitting third in the AL West and still searching for offensive consistency. Despite the team’s slow start, Jose Altuve has been a bright spot, hitting .333 with three homers in his last 10 games. Yordan Alvarez, though still looking for his power stroke to fully emerge, has contributed eight RBI.
Houston will need a stronger showing at the plate to keep pace with a hot Angels squad that has won seven of its last 10. Los Angeles ranks fourth in MLB in slugging (Houston is dead last) and is led by Kyren Paris and Logan O’Hoppe, who have combined for 10 home runs over the last 10 games. The Angels have gone 6-3 on the road and are currently second in the AL West.
This is the first meeting of the season between the division rivals. The Astros are 2-1 this year when scoring five or more runs but have struggled in lower-scoring games. Meanwhile, the Angels have outscored their opponents by 15 runs over their last 10 contests.
Here's a look at the Astros lineup for Game 1:
Screenshot via: MLB.com
Shaking things up
Brendan Rodgers is hitless in his last eight at-bats, so Joe Espada is hoping Mauricio Dubon can give the offense a spark as he's hitting ninth and playing second base.
First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. EDT.
The Astros projected starters for the series:
Friday-Blanco
Saturday-Ryan Gusto
Sunday-Hayden Wesneski
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