THE PALLILOG
At this point, Astros just adding to an amazing season
Sep 27, 2019, 10:19 am
How many feathers can the Astros fit in their caps?
They almost added a doozy Wednesday night when Zack Greinke took his no-hit bid to the ninth inning in Seattle. No team in Major League Baseball history has pitched three no-hitters in the same season. Alas that's still the case, but boy the Astros came close to being the first.
If the flat out most talented top to bottom team is to win the World Series next month, it will be the Astros. No one else has a better shot, but winning it is far from likely. This is the 25th season since the implementation of the Wild Card. Only six times in 24 years has the team with best record in the regular season then won the World Series. There simply is no such thing as a massive upset in a three out of five or four out of seven playoff series. It looks like the American League Wild Card game (the winner of which will head to Houston) will match the A's and Rays. The A's would have plenty of reason to be confident against the Astros, having taken three out of four from them twice within a month. From June 15 forward the A's have the better record. That's more than half the season. But it could be all over for the A's in one Wild Card game loss. The Astros went 3-4 vs. the Rays. Losing three of four in St. Petersburg to open the season. The Astros have no reason to fear anybody, but Oakland looks to be the less desirable opponent. As a clincher, Oakland is a much longer flight.
A.J. Hinch should be pondering a couple of things heading into the postseason. After his hot April Josh Reddick hasn't been a good player this year. Kyle Tucker has swung the bat well since his call up. Tucker starting in right field with Reddick off the bench merits consideration. Michael Brantley has collapsed the last month. His last double was on August 22. Whether he's worn down a bit or just in a protracted slump, there is no compelling reason to keep Brantley third in the batting order with Yordan Alvarez in the five hole. Hey, Brantley could catch fire in the playoffs while Alvarez could fall on his face. But off of a season body of work and more recent performance, why would you bat the clearly superior weapon two spots lower in the order?
Alex Bregman has obviously had the best season of all everyday player Astros. Bregman's American League Most Valuable Player case has gathered strength, though it's homerism to think he definitely should win. Equally obvious, George Springer has had the second best season. Springer's recent 11 home runs in 16 games eruption reminded that had he not spent a month on the injured list he might be right there with Bregman as an MVP alternative to Mike Trout. If not for the IL stint, maintaining his rate of production in the games he has played would mean Springer would have more homers and RBI than Bregman. Springer would have blown past 100 RBI and become the third player ever to post 100 RBI from the leadoff spot. Darren Erstad sold his soul to the devil for his 2000 season with the Angels, Charlie Blackmon did it two years ago but only because he plays home games in the offensive freak show environment that is Denver.
Bigger Springer numbers going forward, contract numbers. He's making 12 million dollars this season. Next season that should jump to 17-20 million, then without an extension agreed upon he'd become a free agent. Springer turned 30 last week, he can't be a free agent until he's 31, so that he'd command some six or seven year deal on the open market is basically out of the question. This offseason, if you're George Springer, would you take, say, four years 85 million, for generations of financial security. If you're the Astros, with their skyrocketing payroll, would you offer it? We wait to see where Gerrit Cole signs. If the Astros keep Cole, trading Zack Greinke is a distinct possibility. If the Astros keep Justin Verlander, Cole, and Greinke? Stunning.
The Texans are two home wins from taking a 4-1 record to Kansas City in a couple of weeks. Their wins over the Jaguars and Chargers weren't masterful performances. The Texans benefitted greatly from The Jags and Bolts each being down at least four starters. But style points and level of impressiveness don't matter. At 2-1 the Texans are four and a half point favorites over the Panthers. Win Sunday and they'll certainly be favored next week over the Falcons.
Buzzer Beaters
1. It's only vs. the Shanghai Sharks, but first Russell Westbrook as a Rocket action is Monday. Presuming he plays some. 2. Anyone really think it's better than 50/50 D'Eriq King plays at UH next season? 3. Notable sports quitters: Bronze-Randy Moss, most plays when not the primary recieverSilver-Scottie Pippen playoff game vs. KnicksGold-Roberto Duran "No Mas."
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Winning consecutive series over last place teams does not mean all is well again in Astroworld, but taking five of seven games from the Orioles and Rockies stopped the bleeding which saw the Astros stumble through an awful 14-23 stretch. The regular season is now in its final month, the Astros are in the middle of three different playoff races. The high-end goal is finishing with one of the two best records in the American League to secure a bye past the two out of three lightning round Major League Baseball calls the Wild Card Series. Entering the holiday weekend the Astros sit four games behind the Toronto Blue Jays, three and a half back of the Detroit Tigers. If the Astros can’t overtake either the Jays or Tigers, they at least want to hold off Seattle to win the American League West. Winning the division for an eighth consecutive full season would be its own accomplishment, for the postseason it would at least assure the Astros of homefield advantage in a best-of-three. The race the Astros hope to need to pay little attention to is holding off Kansas City for the final wild card spot. That would be necessary should the Astros lose out on the division title to the Mariners, and finish behind both the second and third place finishers in the AL East in the wild card race, presently the Red Sox and Yankees. The M’s, Bosox, and Yanks all finishing ahead of the Astros is a clear possibility. The good news on that front is the Astros holding a five game lead over the Royals with 28 games to go, though Kansas City does win the tiebreaker should it come to that. The Astros have a significantly easier closing schedule than do the Royals. The Astros have just six games left against teams that would currently qualify for the postseason. The Royals have 12. So to miss the playoffs entirely the Astros basically have to fold, and/or the Royals need to play four weeks of spectacular baseball.
Yordan Alvarez’s looooong awaited return is a big boost to the lineup. Even if he isn't peak Yordan, his presence matters. His missile of a home run to centerfield was the wow moment of his return series, but Alvarez drawing five walks in nine plate appearances speaks to what opponents think of him. Still, offense remains an Astro struggle all too often. The Rockies have the worst pitching staff in MLB. The Astros managed nine runs in three games against it. At least that was enough to win two out of three. 67 times this season the Astros have scored three or fewer runs, equaling their three or fewer total of the entire 2024 season. For a good while this year the Astros were winning an amazing percentage of their games where the offense did little. At one point the Astros were 19-27 when scoring three or fewer, which was stunning success and as I wrote at the time, wholly unsustainable. Since then, the Astros have lost 20 of the last 21 games in which they failed to score four.
Christian Walker’s power surge has been a boon, of late helping offset Jose Altuve’s slump (just 10 hits in his last 60 at bats heading into the Angels series) and Carlos Correa’s lack of thump (just two extra base hits and a sub-.700 OPS over his last 15 games). Over 46 games played from July 1 through Thursday, Walker has been very good hitting .279 with an .859 OPS. That doesn't undo his being wretched through June, but credit where credit is due.
Alvarez is the big bopper (remember the ex-Astro who had that nickname?) addition to Joe Espada's lineup cards, but Jake Meyers could be a lower key big return as well next week. To call Chas McCormick and Jacob Melton poor offensive players this season would be an understatement along the lines of saying Yao Ming is above average in height. When Meyers blew out his right calf it short-circuited what was his breakout big league season. Even if Meyers can't regain that form, by accident he'll still be better than what McCormick and Melton have provided.
After finishing up with the Angels on Labor Day, the Astros get the Yankees for three big games at Daikin Park starting Tuesday. Hunter Brown starting Sunday means he will not pitch against the Yankees. That's not a mistake, it's just how the rotation falls. It will be a mistake if the Astros' brain trust doesn't properly map out starting pitching ahead of the massive matchups against the Mariners September 19, 20, 21 and make sure both Brown and Framber Valdez start games in that series. After this homestand wraps, the Astro have only six home games remaining versus 15 on the road.
Oh yeah. Glenn Davis was "The Big Bopper."
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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