Stepping up to the plate
Austin Rivers shines in Rockets' 129-112 victory over Kings
Aug 10, 2020, 11:22 am
Photo via: Houston Rockets/Facebook
It's easy to forget about Austin Rivers. He comes off the bench, he only really plays about 20 minutes a game when the Rockets are at full health, and he plays in a crowded guard rotation next to James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and Eric Gordon. So when he helps carry Houston to a blowout victory over the Sacramento Kings, it can take you by surprise. On Sunday night, Rivers tallied a career-high 41 points on a ridiculous 87.2% true shooting as the Rockets defeated the Kings 129-112.
"He was just aggressive from the beginning of the game," noted James Harden after the game. "I think what got him started was his defense. He played really good defense. And then offensively, he was just attack mode."
As the Rockets got off to a poor first quarter (trailed the Kings 36-23), Austin Rivers was the only constant that was keeping Houston in the game. By halftime, Rivers had 19 points on 7 of 8 shooting from the field and 4 of 5 shooting from three-point range and the Rockets had regained the lead.
"He's been going in the morning to the gym shooting and working on his jumpshot," continued Harden. "So it kind of gave him that confidence. And tonight obviously with no Russ and no Eric, he needed to be a little bit more aggressive and he did that tonight."
The key point here is obviously that Rivers did this on a night where Russell Westbrook and Eric Gordon were not in the rotation. Rivers didn't become good at scoring the basketball overnight, but the combination of Harden, Westbrook, and Gordon take away the need for Rivers to have nights like this. But when one or two of those guys go down with injury, Rivers has historically seen a huge spike in usage and playmaking responsibility. He's thrived in those environments.
"It's not easy, you know?" Rivers said after the game. "You play with two of the best guards in the NBA. Obviously, they have the ball in their hands a lot. So on this team you try to play your role. That's what I do. I try to play my role everyday."
One may see this as a balancing act that the Rockets need to juggle better, but Houston doesn't view it that way. They enjoy the idea of having multiple ball handlers, playmakers, and creators on the floor at all times. It's what makes them unique and gives them the ability to play this way. If one of the guards is struggling or unavailable, they know that they have other capable guys at the ready to come in and fill bigger roles. They don't need Austin Rivers to play like this, and that's perhaps what makes him the team's greatest luxury.
"Obviously it's good," Mike D'Antoni said of his bench's ability to create. "We're pretty deep. Once we get Russell and Eric back, we'll have 9 guys that will rotate in and out. The defense we want to play and the pace we want to play at, we'll need about 9. It's good to know that we can count on those guys."
And it's not just D'Antoni who feels this way. Rockets players certainly appreciate having Rivers' as a weapon in their back pocket. In fact, during the game, James Harden and Russell Westbrook were urging Rivers to keep attacking and take advantage of the opportunity. It's something Rivers says he values deeply.
"That even makes me more confident," Rivers said of the interaction. "Them pushing me really really helps me be more confident in myself. And when you have a guy like James Harden telling you to go, and Russell telling you to go, no one can stop you. That's coming from two of the best players in the NBA. I don't know what else you need."
It's funny - although Rivers has this ability to score 15 points a game if he were called upon to do it, the Rockets really only need him to essentially be a 3-and-D point guard. His one-on-one defense is something Rivers probably doesn't get enough credit for, but his teammates know what he brings to the table on that end of the floor.
"Well we do need him to score when his number's called and he gets opportunities to," said Harden. "Obviously Austin can score but he's a good defender. He just creates opportunity defensively for our team."
And that's what Rivers was for the Rockets on Sunday night. Of course he was scoring the ball well, but his defensive intensity helped Houston sharpen up as a team and led to several minutes with the Kings not scoring. That's the version of Rivers the Rockets will need come playoff time if everyone is healthy: a steady force in the background of Houston's guard rotation that doesn't mind being out of the spotlight. He doesn't need a night like this to prove that he can score the basketball - his teammates already know what he's capable of.
"I don't play for the record books," said Rivers. "I don't play for stats. I play to help my team win. And when you do that and things like that kind of come naturally, it's the best way to go about it. "
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
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