LOOKING AHEAD
Barry Laminack: 4 bold predictions for the 2018 Houston Astros
Apr 5, 2018, 7:40 am
Jose Altuve will not make it to 200 hits. Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images
It seems like everybody likes to make predictions at some point before the season starts - yours truly included - and most of them are pretty easy. For example, saying the Astros will make it back to the World Series. Duh.
Of course a lot of talking heads said that about the Cubs last year and look what happened.
Last week I gave you my predictions, this week I wanted to take it a step further.
These are my four bold predictions for the 2018 Houston Astros
And before you guys start screaming and cussing at tweeting me to tell me what an idiot I am, please keep in my they are called BOLD PREDICTIONS. Meaning they’re a little out there (but I still tried to keep them within the realm of the plausible).
BOLD PREDICTION #1: Carlos Correa will win the MVP
A lot of you will read that and think, duh, that’s not even that bold, Barry!
Not so fast.
For one, you’ve got the reigning MVP on the team, so they could cancel each other out during voting. Two, Mike Trout could actually be healthy all year. Three, Aaron Judge is still playing. Four, the reigning NL MVP (Giancarlo Stanton) is now in the AL.
So Carlos Correa winning the MVP will be easier said than done this year.
BOLD PREDICTION #2: Gonzalez will have a better year than he did in 2017
It seems like a lot of folks in the media believe Marwin Gonzalez is a perfect candidate to regress from what he did last year, when he had a career year at the plate, slashing .303/.377/.530. Because of his role as super-utility, and the fact that he can switch hit, and the fact that he’ll hit in the middle of the best lineup in baseball, he’ll have plenty of opportunity to make me look like a genius.
BOLD PREDICTION #3: Jose Altuve won't get 200 hits
OK, even I'm not confident in this one, especially based on past precedence, but the fact of the matter is getting 200 hits every year isn't easy and we've all been spoiled by Altuve's output. The streak ends this year.
Of course, I still think he’ll get close, like 190-195 close. but it won't surprise me if he doesn't reach 200 hits.
It will disappoint me.
It'll make me sad as an Astros fan, but it won't surprise me if he misses the loft mark he has set for himself.
BOLD PREDICTION #4: Lance McCullers will lead the team in wins
McCullers was impressive in the postseason and I've said all along he's got No. 1 stuff, he just has to stay healthy. If he can, he's just as good as anybody in this rotation.
Justin Verlander is 35 years old, and I hate to be the one to bring you bad news, but he’s getting older, not younger.
Dallas Kuechel has been prone to off-years.
Gerrit Cole didn't have a great year last year; that’s why the Astros got him for relatively cheap, all things considered.
Charlie Morton is good but he isn’t good enough to lead this team in wins.
I’ve said all along the Astros have four 1s and a 3 in their 5 man rotation, so this might be the boldest prediction of all, but McCullers does have the stuff to back it up. The key for him is to stay healthy. If he does, look out. Not only could he lead the team in wins, he’ll be in contention for a Cy Young.
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After dropping a frustrating series to the Chicago White Sox, the Houston Astros find themselves in a familiar position—searching for answers, but still within striking distance. Despite their inconsistency, Houston sits just three games behind the AL West-leading Mariners, who are currently 7 games over .500 and riding an 8-2 stretch. For as up-and-down as the Astros have been, the division remains tantalizingly close.
That inconsistency was on full display throughout the White Sox series. Jake Meyers and Zach Dezenzo each played the roles of both hero and heartbreaker. Dezenzo launched a massive home run in Game 3, a moment that energized the dugout and briefly shifted momentum. But his costly defensive error later in the game flipped the script. Meyers was a spark plug in Houston’s lone win, delivering a clutch performance at the plate, only to run the team out of a rally in the finale when he was picked off second—right before Jeremy Peña ripped what would have been an RBI single.
Jose Altuve’s struggles are quietly becoming more worrisome. He’s recorded just one multi-hit game since April 19 and has only one homer since April 8. On Sunday, he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had grinded through a 33-pitch inning—a decision that raised questions about his awareness in a veteran moment. Should manager Joe Espada have reminded Altuve of the situation? Or is this on Altuve, who should have known what to do as one of the team leaders?
Signs of life
There are flickers of life from the bats. Last week, Houston's team OPS was an underwhelming .667 (23rd in MLB), with a slugging percentage of .357 (25th). They've nudged those numbers up to .684 (19th) and .370 (21st), respectively. It’s modest progress, but enough to suggest this offense might be trending in the right direction. Still, their 5-5 record over the last 10 games feels emblematic of who they are right now—a .500 team with both talent and flaws.
Looking ahead
The upcoming schedule could be a turning point. Three of the next five opponents have losing records, and none of them are elite. This stretch offers a prime opportunity for Houston to finally build momentum and close the gap in the division—assuming the Mariners cool off from their current tear, which seems inevitable given their unsustainable 8-2 pace.
McCullers is officially back!
Lance McCullers returned for the first time since 2022 and, despite being limited to 3.2 innings due to command issues (three walks and a hit batter), there were encouraging signs. His velocity was there, and the stuff looked sharp. It’s a start, and perhaps a step toward stabilizing a rotation that still needs length.
Steering the ship
Manager Joe Espada, however, continues to draw scrutiny. His decision-making in the finale raised eyebrows again. Giving Isaac Paredes a day off when Yordan Alvarez was already sitting left the lineup depleted. Rather than using promising young infielder/outfielder Cam Smith, he opted for Mauricio Dubón and Brendan Rodgers—a defensive combo that didn't inspire confidence. It feels at times like Espada isn’t prioritizing winning the final game of a series, a pattern that could haunt the team down the stretch.
The plot thickens
Meanwhile, Christian Walker’s slump is dragging on. He went 0-for-5 twice in the last two series and looks out of sync at the plate. The Astros need more from their power hitters if they hope to make a real run. And with Alvarez now heading to the IL with hand inflammation, runs will be even harder to come by.
All told, this team still feels like one hovering just above or below .500. But in a division that remains wide open, the path forward is clear: play better, hope the Mariners come back to earth, and capitalize on a soft schedule. The race is far from over—but it’s time for Houston to start acting like contenders.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
*ChatGPT assisted.
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