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Barry Laminack: 4 bold predictions for the 2018 Houston Astros

Barry Laminack: 4 bold predictions for the 2018 Houston Astros
Jose Altuve will not make it to 200 hits. Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

It seems like everybody likes to make predictions at some point before the season starts - yours truly included - and  most of them are pretty easy. For example, saying the Astros will make it back to the World Series. Duh.

Of course a lot of talking heads said that about the Cubs last year and look what happened.

Last week I gave you my predictions, this week I wanted to take it a step further.

These are my four bold predictions for the 2018 Houston Astros

And before you guys start screaming and cussing at tweeting me to tell me what an idiot I am, please keep in my they are called BOLD PREDICTIONS. Meaning they’re a little out there (but I still tried to keep them within the realm of the plausible).

BOLD PREDICTION #1: Carlos Correa will win the MVP

A lot of you will read that and think, duh, that’s not even that bold, Barry!

Not so fast.

For one, you’ve got the reigning MVP on the team, so they could cancel each other out during voting. Two, Mike Trout could actually be healthy all year. Three, Aaron Judge is still playing. Four, the reigning NL MVP (Giancarlo Stanton) is now in the AL.

So Carlos Correa winning the MVP will be easier said than done this year.

BOLD PREDICTION #2: Gonzalez will have a better year than he did in 2017

It seems like a lot of folks in the media believe Marwin Gonzalez is a perfect candidate to regress from what he did last year, when he had a career year at the plate, slashing .303/.377/.530. Because of his role as super-utility, and the fact that he can switch hit, and the fact that he’ll hit in the middle of the best lineup in baseball, he’ll have plenty of opportunity to make me look like a genius.

BOLD PREDICTION #3: Jose Altuve won't get 200 hits

OK, even I'm not confident in this one, especially based on past precedence, but the fact of the matter is getting 200 hits every year isn't easy and we've all been spoiled by Altuve's output. The streak ends this year.

Of course, I still think he’ll get close, like 190-195 close. but it won't surprise me if he doesn't reach 200 hits.

It will disappoint me.

It'll make me sad as an Astros fan, but it won't surprise me if he misses the loft mark he has set for himself.

BOLD PREDICTION #4: Lance McCullers will lead the team in wins

McCullers was impressive in the postseason and I've said all along he's got No. 1 stuff, he just has to stay healthy. If he can, he's just as good as anybody in this rotation.

Justin Verlander is 35 years old, and I hate to be the one to bring you bad news, but he’s getting older, not younger.  

Dallas Kuechel has been prone to off-years.

Gerrit Cole didn't have a great year last year; that’s why the Astros got him for relatively cheap, all things considered.

Charlie Morton is good but he isn’t good enough to lead this team in wins.

I’ve said all along the Astros have four 1s and a 3 in their 5 man rotation, so this might be the boldest prediction of all, but McCullers does have the stuff to back it up. The key for him is to stay healthy. If he does, look out. Not only could he lead the team in wins, he’ll be in contention for a Cy Young.

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Have the Astros turned a corner? Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.

After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.

Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after the 6-10 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.

While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.

Caratini comes through!

So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.

Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.

Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.

Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.

Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…

Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.

Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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