PLAYOFF POINTS
Barry Laminack predicts the Astros 25-man roster/Round 1 preview
Sep 28, 2018, 7:05 am
With the playoffs right around the corner I figured we could take a look at the projected Astros’ 25 man roster for the teams first round matchup vs the Cleveland Indians.
First thing we have to figure out is if A.J. Hinch goes with 12 bats or 13. For weeks I’ve thought he’d go with 12 bats, but when I put them on paper, seeing that either Kemp or Marisnick could be left off, combined with the fact that the pitching staff is so deep and talented, I now think he’ll carry 13 bats.
The other, and perhaps the most important reason I think they will carry 13 bats is the health of George Springer. He’s not 100%, so having both Marisneck and Kemp as back-ups makes sense.
Here are the fielders I project will make the cut for round 1:
C: Brian McCann
1B: Yuli Gurriel
2B: Jose Altuve
3B: Alex Bregman
SS: Carlos Correa
LF: Marwin Gonzalez
CF: George Springer
RF: Josh Reddick
DH: Evan Gattis
Martin Maldonado(C), Tyler White (1B/DH), Jake Marisnick (OF), Tony Kemp (OF/2B)
For the sake of argument, let's say he decides to only carry 12 bats. Who does Hinch leave off, Kemp or Marisnick?
Both can provide speed off the bench to steal you a bag late in a game, but Marisneck’s value as a late game defensive replacement is undeniable. So if they do go with 12 bats, I think Kemp is the odd man out.
Now to the pitching staff.
Justin Verlander
Gerrit Cole
Charlie Morton
Dallas Keuchel
(MR = Middle Relief, LS = Lefty Specialist, SU = Setup Man, CL = Closer)
MR: Ryan Pressly, Colin McHugh, Lance McCullers, Joe Smith, Josh James
LS: Tony Sipp
SU: Hector Rondon
CL: Roberto Osuna
Much like the hitters, most of the names on this list are no-brainers.
One great sign for this team was Lance McCullers getting in a productive inning of work (his first work since going on the DL in early August), so expect to see him pitch in at least two more games before the playoffs get here.
I think the final 2 spots on this team come down to choosing between Will Harris, Josh James, Brad Peacock, Joe Smith, and Framber Valdez.
Will Harris just doesn’t have it this year, at least not enough to warrant a playoff spot, and for as good as Framber Valdez has looked this year, his 21 walks in 34.2 innings is going to keep him out of the playoffs.
I think Josh James has shown enough to warrant his addition to the roster. He’s proven that pressure isn’t an issue (look at his outing in Boston) and he’s got electric stuff that can get you a strikeout when needed, but can also go for a while if you find yourself in an extra innings marathon (and I think this could be very likely in at least 1 of the 5 games).
So this was really a choice between Brad Peacock and Joe Smith, and to be honest, you could make a case for both.
Peacock is giving up 1.57 HR/9 and averaging 13/4 Ks per 9 innings, while Smith is giving up 1.22 HR/9 and fanning 9.3 per 9 inning. Smith has shown better control with a .963 WHIP to Peacocks 1.115.
Those numbers are pretty darn good for both guys, so you really can’t go wrong here. I think it comes down to performance in the postseason.
Peacock has a 5.11 ERA (giving up 7 earned runs in 12 postseason inning - all last year).
Smith has pitched in a total of 5 innings of relief in the playoffs (spread over 3 years - 2013, 2014 and 2017) and has yet to give up a run (that included 4 appearances against the Yankees last year in the ALDS).
So because of his postseason success I went with Smith, but if the final playoff spot on your pitching roster is between Joe Smith and Brad Peacock, it’s safe to say your pitching staff is pretty darn good.
The Astros are loaded with talent and ready to make another deep playoff run. The Cleveland Indians are no slouch of a team and can match the Astros starter for starter and at bat for at bat. The real difference between these two clubs is the bullpen and that is advantage Astros.
The Astros win this series, but it’ll take all five games.
The Houston Rockets (16-8) face the Golden State Warriors (14-9) at home on Wednesday at 9:30 p.m. EST, with the Warriors aiming to snap their three-game road losing streak. The game pits two Western Conference contenders looking to solidify their standings as the season progresses.
The Rockets, currently third in the West, have excelled in second-chance opportunities, leading the conference with 14.2 offensive rebounds per game. Alperen Sengun anchors this effort, averaging 3.4 offensive boards per game alongside his strong all-around performance of 18.5 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 5.3 assists. Houston will look to exploit this strength against a Golden State team ranked second in the league in total rebounds per game (48.7), thanks in part to Kevon Looney’s steady 7.9 boards per game.
Meanwhile, the Warriors, fifth in the standings, continue to rely on Stephen Curry's leadership. Curry is averaging 23 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 6.6 assists, but Golden State’s struggles on the road and a recent shooting slump (42.9% over the last 10 games) have hindered their consistency.
Golden State’s strength from beyond the arc will be tested against Houston’s perimeter defense. The Warriors are averaging 15.2 made three-pointers per game, a sharp contrast to the 11.8 threes allowed by the Rockets. On the other end, Houston will aim to exploit Golden State’s slightly generous defensive field goal percentage of 43.8%.
The Rockets come into the game having gone 6-4 in their last 10 outings, averaging 112.3 points and a stifling defensive effort that has limited opponents to just 107.3 points per game. The Warriors, meanwhile, are 4-6 over the same stretch, struggling offensively with just 107 points per game.
Houston may be without key contributors Tari Eason (concussion protocol) and Fred VanVleet (knee). The Warriors list Andrew Wiggins as day-to-day with an ankle issue, while De’Anthony Melton remains sidelined for the season.
The Rockets are slight favorites at -2.5 according to BetMGM Sportsbook, with the total points over/under set at 221.5. Houston’s home-court advantage and rebounding dominance may prove decisive against a Warriors team seeking to find its rhythm.
Both teams have much to prove in this matchup of Western heavyweights. Houston’s continued rise and Golden State’s resolve to end their road struggles will define this pivotal contest.
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