PLAYOFF POINTS

Barry Laminack predicts the Astros 25-man roster/Round 1 preview

Barry Laminack predicts the Astros 25-man roster/Round 1 preview
Tony Kemp might be the odd man out if the Astros go with fewer hitters. Bob Levey/Getty Images

With the playoffs right around the corner I figured we could take a look at the projected Astros’ 25 man roster for the teams first round matchup vs the Cleveland Indians.

First thing we have to figure out is if A.J. Hinch goes with 12 bats or 13. For weeks I’ve thought he’d go with 12 bats, but when I put them on paper, seeing that either Kemp or Marisnick could be left off, combined with the fact that the pitching staff is so deep and talented, I now think he’ll carry 13 bats.

The other, and perhaps the most important reason I think they will carry 13 bats is the health of George Springer. He’s not 100%, so having both Marisneck and Kemp as back-ups makes sense.

Here are the fielders I project will make the cut for round 1:

STARTERS

C: Brian McCann

1B: Yuli Gurriel

2B: Jose Altuve

3B: Alex Bregman

SS: Carlos Correa

LF: Marwin Gonzalez

CF: George Springer

RF: Josh Reddick

DH: Evan Gattis
 

BENCH

Martin Maldonado(C), Tyler White (1B/DH), Jake Marisnick (OF), Tony Kemp (OF/2B)

For the sake of argument, let's say he decides to only carry 12 bats. Who does Hinch leave off, Kemp or Marisnick?

Both can provide speed off the bench to steal you a bag late in a game, but Marisneck’s value as a late game defensive replacement is undeniable. So if they do go with 12 bats, I think Kemp is the odd man out.

Now to the pitching staff.

STARTERS

Justin Verlander

Gerrit Cole

Charlie Morton

Dallas Keuchel

BULLPEN

(MR = Middle Relief, LS = Lefty Specialist, SU = Setup Man, CL = Closer)

MR: Ryan Pressly, Colin McHugh, Lance McCullers, Joe Smith, Josh James

LS: Tony Sipp

SU: Hector Rondon

CL: Roberto Osuna

Much like the hitters, most of the names on this list are no-brainers.

One great sign for this team was Lance McCullers getting in a productive inning of work (his first work since going on the DL in early August), so expect to see him pitch in at least two more games before the playoffs get here.

I think the final 2 spots on this team come down to choosing between Will Harris, Josh James, Brad Peacock, Joe Smith,  and Framber Valdez.

Will Harris just doesn’t have it this year, at least not enough to warrant a playoff spot, and for as good as Framber Valdez has looked this year, his 21 walks in 34.2 innings is going to keep him out of the playoffs.

I think Josh James has shown enough to warrant his addition to the roster. He’s proven that pressure isn’t an issue (look at his outing in Boston) and he’s got electric stuff that can get you a strikeout when needed, but can also go for a while if you find yourself in an extra innings marathon (and I think this could be very likely in at least 1 of the 5 games).

So this was really a choice between Brad Peacock and Joe Smith, and to be honest, you could make a case for both.

Peacock is giving up 1.57 HR/9 and averaging 13/4 Ks per 9 innings, while Smith is giving up 1.22 HR/9 and fanning 9.3 per 9 inning. Smith has shown better control with a .963 WHIP to Peacocks 1.115.

Those numbers are pretty darn good for both guys, so you really can’t go wrong here. I think it comes down to performance in the postseason.

Peacock has a 5.11 ERA (giving up 7 earned runs in 12 postseason inning - all last year).

Smith has pitched in a total of 5 innings of relief in the playoffs (spread over 3 years - 2013, 2014 and 2017) and has yet to give up a run (that included 4 appearances against the Yankees last year in the ALDS).

So because of his postseason success I went with Smith, but if the final playoff spot on your pitching roster is between Joe Smith and Brad Peacock, it’s safe to say your pitching staff is pretty darn good.

SERIES PREDICTION

The Astros are loaded with talent and ready to make another deep playoff run. The Cleveland Indians are no slouch of a team and can match the Astros starter for starter and at bat for at bat. The real difference between these two clubs is the bullpen and that is advantage Astros.

The Astros win this series, but it’ll take all five games.

Most Popular

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome

Listen Live

ESPN Houston 97.5 FM
The Astros have their work cut out for them. Composite Getty Image.

Through 20 games, the Houston Astros have managed just six wins and are in last place in the AL West.

Their pitching staff trails only Colorado with a 5.24 ERA and big-money new closer Josh Hader has given up the same number of earned runs in 10 games as he did in 61 last year.

Despite this, these veteran Astros, who have reached the AL Championship Series seven consecutive times, have no doubt they’ll turn things around.

“If there’s a team that can do it, it’s this team,” shortstop Jeremy Peña said.

First-year manager Joe Espada, who was hired in January to replace the retired Dusty Baker, discussed his team’s early struggles.

“It’s not ideal,” he said. “It’s not what we expected, to come out of the shoot playing this type of baseball. But you know what, this is where we’re at and we’ve got to pick it up and play better. That’s just the bottom line.”

Many of Houston’s problems have stemmed from a poor performance by a rotation that has been decimated by injuries. Ace Justin Verlander and fellow starter José Urquidy haven’t pitched this season because of injuries and lefty Framber Valdez made just two starts before landing on the injured list with a sore elbow.

Ronel Blanco, who threw a no-hitter in his season debut April 1, has pitched well and is 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA in three starts this season. Cristian Javier is also off to a good start, going 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA in four starts, but the team has won just two games not started by those two pitchers.

However, Espada wouldn’t blame the rotation for Houston’s current position.

“It’s been a little bit of a roller coaster how we've played overall,” he said. “One day we get good starting pitching, some days we don’t. The middle relief has been better and sometimes it hasn’t been. So, we’ve just got to put it all together and then play more as a team. And once we start doing that, we’ll be in good shape.”

The good news for the Astros is that Verlander will make his season debut Friday night when they open a series at Washington and Valdez should return soon after him.

“Framber and Justin have been a great part of our success in the last few years,” second baseman Jose Altuve said. “So, it’s always good to have those two guys back helping the team. We trust them and I think it’s going to be good.”

Hader signed a five-year, $95 million contract this offseason to give the Astros a shutdown 7-8-9 combination at the back end of their bullpen with Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly. But the five-time All-Star is off to a bumpy start.

He allowed four runs in the ninth inning of a 6-1 loss to the Braves on Monday night and has yielded eight earned runs this season after giving up the same number in 56 1/3 innings for San Diego last year.

He was much better Wednesday when he struck out the side in the ninth before the Astros fell to Atlanta in 10 innings for their third straight loss.

Houston’s offense, led by Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, ranks third in the majors with a .268 batting average and is tied for third with 24 homers this season. But the Astros have struggled with runners in scoring position and often failed to get a big hit in close games.

While many of Houston’s hitters have thrived this season, one notable exception is first baseman José Abreu. The 37-year-old, who is in the second year of a three-year, $58.5 million contract, is hitting 0.78 with just one extra-base hit in 16 games, raising questions about why he remains in the lineup every day.

To make matters worse, his error on a routine ground ball in the eighth inning Wednesday helped the Braves tie the game before they won in extra innings.

Espada brushed off criticism of Abreu and said he knows the 2020 AL MVP can break out of his early slump.

“Because (of) history,” Espada said. “The back of his baseball card. He can do it.”

Though things haven’t gone well for the Astros so far, everyone insists there’s no panic in this team which won its second World Series in 2022.

Altuve added that he doesn’t have to say anything to his teammates during this tough time.

“I think they’ve played enough baseball to know how to control themselves and how to come back to the plan we have, which is winning games,” he said.

The clubhouse was quiet and somber Wednesday after the Astros suffered their third series sweep of the season and second at home. While not panicking about the slow start, this team, which has won at least 90 games in each of the last three seasons, is certainly not happy with its record.

“We need to do everything better,” third baseman Alex Bregman said. “I feel like we’re in a lot of games, but we just haven’t found a way to win them. And good teams find a way to win games. So we need to find a way to win games.”

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome