A WHOLE NEW BALLGAME
The new normal: How pitching dominance is shaping baseball
Jul 15, 2024, 5:20 pm
Examining baseball's run scoring dilemma. Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images.
Baseball can’t run away from its lack of runs.
Batting averages are near half-century lows. Velocity is at an all-time high.
"Run scoring, it’s not easy to do. It’s hard and it’s getting harder,” Minnesota manager Rocco Baldelli said. “Pitchers are getting better by the outing.”
The major league batting average was .240 through April and .239 in May, the lowest since the bottom of .237 in 1968’s Year of the Pitcher. It’s risen slightly along with the temperature as spring turned to summer: .246 in June and .250 in July, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
Still, the season average of .243 heading into the All-Star break was just ahead of 2022 and 1968 as the lowest since the dead-ball era ended in 1920.
“Batting average was down a little bit. That’s not necessarily a good thing if you’re looking for action in the game,” baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred said in late May.
And the drop isn’t just in the big leagues. This year’s minor league batting average is .243, down from .256 in 2019.
“I didn’t see 100 (mph) when I was playing. It’s commonplace now,” said Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, whose last season was 2008.
Average four-seam fastball velocity is 94.2 mph this year, matching 2023 and up from 91.1 mph in 2008. There were 3,880 pitches of 100 mph or higher last year, up from 214 in 2008.
Just at Triple-A this year there have been 461.
“You can tell as a hitter. Guys are going to the top with the fastballs,” said Dylan Crews, the No. 2 draft pick last year and now at Washington's Triple-A Rochester farm team.
In an age of shortened attention spans, Major League Baseball has tried to increase action by instituting limits on defensive shifts in 2023 along with a pitch clock to cut dead time. The average time of a nine-inning game dropped from 3 hours, 4 minutes in 2022 to 2:40 last year and 2:36 thus far this season, but runs remain near post-Steroids Era lows: 4.39 per team each game, down from 4.62 last year and up from 4.28 in 2022.
Still, hitters have cut down slightly on strikeouts: the rate of 8.36 per team per game this season is the lowest since 2017, down from 8.61 last year and a record 8.81 in 2019.
“There’s more spin rate. There’s harder throwers,” San Diego star third baseman Manny Machado said. “There’s just so much information and I think that’s what creates the havoc and makes hitting a little bit harder.”
The percentage of fastballs — four-seamers, sinkers and cutters — is 55.5% this year, just above last season’s 55.4%. It was 62.5% in 2015.
Spin rates on sliders, sweepers and slurves have increased from 2,106 revolutions per minute in 2015 to 2,475 this year and their use has increased from 10.9% to 22.5%.
Team wonks view video and dissect data to provide pitchers pointers and batters blueprints. The Dodgers employ senior directors of baseball systems applications and baseball systems platforms along with directors of baseball strategy and information, quantitative analysis, baseball product development, integrative baseball performance, performance innovation lab and baseball innovation.
As a result of the perpetual perusal, pitchers are told what to throw, when to throw and how to throw.
Atlanta’s Max Fried mixes seven pitches: four-seamer, sinker, cutter, slider, sweeper, curveball and changeup.
“The information is so prevalent that there are no secrets,” Fried said. “Baseball is still a game of changing speeds and mixing up looks and if you can just kind of keep guys off balance as much as you possibly can there, you’re going to give yourself the best chance to be successful.”
The New York Yankees built a pitching laboratory known as the “Gas Station” at their minor league complex in Tampa, Florida, ahead of the 2020 season, a type of facility that is now becoming more commonplace. Pitchers from big leaguers down to high school have gone to Driveline in Kent, Washington, to develop their repertoires. “Pitch shape” has become a common term.
“You could go long periods, months maybe, where teams were not adding new pitches,” Baldelli said. “And now you see almost every series, you run in against a team and someone’s doing something completely different. I think the fear has kind of left the major league clubhouses when it comes to making adjustments.”
As the Houston Astros continue to navigate a season riddled with injuries and inconsistencies, the question looms larger than ever: can they keep their heads above water? With a barrage of pitching injuries threatening to derail their season, the Astros are finding themselves in a position where every decision matters more than ever.
The recent setbacks to the pitching staff (Hayden Wesnieski, Ronel Blanco) have placed even more pressure on the club. Lance McCullers, whose performances have been inconsistent, is now squarely in the spotlight. The Astros will need him to step up and shoulder a larger portion of the load. At the same time, the bullpen, which has been a bright spot so far, must continue its elite play to keep the team afloat. In particular, Houston can't afford to make mistakes in its decision-making, whether in the lineup or on the field.
Take, for example, the decision to give Chas McCormick a second start after his costly mistakes in Game 1 against the Rays. McCormick’s two pick-offs in that game showed he's lacking focus, yet he was given another chance to start Game 2. Houston needs to be making the right calls on the field, and this was a moment where the manager’s trust in McCormick might have been better placed elsewhere, considering his lack of success in the series.
On the offensive side, the Astros’ struggles have been just as apparent. Jose Altuve, a cornerstone of the franchise, has been attempting to bunt while hitting in the 3-hole. It’s a strategy that just doesn’t make sense. With the Astros needing to produce runs, Altuve's role is to drive them in, not waste strikes with ill-timed bunt attempts.
Is Houston's roster poorly constructed or just unlucky?
Given the pitching woes and offensive troubles, some are beginning to question whether the Astros’ roster is poorly constructed, or if it’s simply been an unfortunate series of events. The bad luck with pitching injuries is undeniable, but the offense tells a different story—particularly when it comes to the lineup’s balance.
One glaring issue is the team’s heavy reliance on right-handed hitters. With players like Christian Walker struggling at the plate, it’s hard to overlook the potential misstep in roster construction. Walker’s performance this season has been abysmal, and it’s fair to wonder if the Astros would have been better off investing in a more flexible first-base platoon. Players like Jon Singleton, Victor Caratini, Zach Dezenzo, Yainer Diaz, and even Mauricio Dubon could have filled in at first base, providing much-needed depth at a fraction of the cost. At this point, they couldn’t have done worse than Walker, who has posted a paltry .199 batting average, .270 OBP, and .607 OPS on the season.
In comparison, Walker’s numbers this season are worse than Jose Abreu’s 2023 campaign with Houston (.237 batting avg, .296 OBP, .680 OPS). Walker is a player known for slow starts, but nothing quite as severe as what we’ve seen in 2025. His struggles are reminiscent of a disastrous start to the 2022 season that saw him fail to find his rhythm until much later in the year, but even then, his slugging percentage was significantly better than what we’re seeing now.
Would a return of “career Yordan Alvarez” fix Houston’s offensive woes?
Amid the offensive malaise, the return of a fully healthy Yordan Alvarez could certainly provide a much-needed spark. If Alvarez were to return to his “career” form, with a healthy pitching staff, an intact bullpen, and a potential resurgence from key hitters, the Astros could see a drastic improvement in their fortunes. However, this is all contingent on a lot of “ifs,” and there’s no guarantee that a turnaround is on the horizon.
Observations and further concerns
As if the struggles on offense and pitching weren’t enough, the Astros’ defense has also been plagued by lapses in fundamentals. One of the more puzzling trends this season has been the number of stolen bases allowed, especially at third base. If the Astros continue to give up steals at this rate, it will be difficult for the pitchers to recover, especially if they are walking batters and putting runners in scoring position with alarming frequency.
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