THE BIG 12 REPORT
Big 12 Conference play kicks off with a Texas showdown you will not want to miss
Sep 18, 2018, 7:17 am
Tom Herman and the Longhorns have another big game. Tim Warner/Getty Images
The Big 12 stood at the center of the national spotlight in Week 3 and did not disappoint. The most praiseworth victory came when Texas dominated the 22nd-ranked USC Trojans 37-14. Other notable performances came from Oklahoma and TCU. The Sooners defeated Iowa State to remain undefeated and secure their position as one of the Top 5 teams in the nation, while TCU surprised college football fans across the nation as they gave No. 2 Ohio State a serious run for their money. With week 3 of college football in the books, conference play begins and things should heat up as teams start to make their push at a Big 12 conference title.
Must Watch Games week 4
Texas vs. TCU (17)
With both teams sitting at 2-1 and coming off their most difficult games of the season, this matchup between TCU and UT should be one to remember. Texas will be energized from their most exciting victory in the past two years after defeating No. 22 USC in convincing fashion, and the Horned Frogs will be looking to get back on their feet after falling short in a hard fought game vs. the Ohio State Buckeyes. Texas looked sharp on both sides of the ball as they scored 37 points and only allowed two touchdowns, both of which came in the first quarter. TCU on the other hand found themselves slightly ove matched by Ohio State and could not recover from their mistakes on the offensive side of the ball. This Texas showdown should be full of exciting plays and jaw dropping moments. Both teams have proven their ability to cause havoc on the defensive side of the ball, and with the Longhorns finding their groove on offense there is no telling what types of acrobatic plays will be made by the athletes on each team.
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State (15)
This Week 4 matchup between the Cowboys and the Red Raiders should be one that will light up the scoreboard. Oklahoma is one of only three teams in the Big 12 that remain undefeated and has scored 157 total points in their first three games of the season. Texas Tech will enter into Week 4 with a 2-1 record but has actually outscored the Cowboys with 167 total points so far this season. Oklahoma State is considerably the more complete team with the help of RB Justice Hill who has eclipsed 100 yards rushing twice this season and has found the end zone four times. Texas Tech on the other hand has proven to be largely one dimensional as freshman QB Alan Bowman threw the football 59 times on his way to a record breaking 600 yard passing performance with 6 touchdowns vs. the University of Houston. If you love fast paced shootouts, you won’t want to miss this one.
Kansas State vs. West Virginia (12)
The final Big 12 game to catch this weekend is No. 12 West Virginia and Heisman Hopeful Will Grier vs. Kansas State. The 12th ranked Mountaineers will head into their first Big 12 matchup with a 2-0 record after their Week 3 game vs. NC State was canceled due to hurricane Florence. While West Virginia remains undefeated, there are concerns that the cancelation of the NC State game could have potential implications on their chances of making the college football playoffs. What this means for West Virginia going forward is that if they do not win the remainder of their games in convincing fashion, they could be forced out of National Championship contention. Luckily the Mountaineers have just the man to help accomplish this feat in QB Grier, who has thrown for 761 yards and 9 touchdowns already this season.
Big 12 Players to watch week 4
Oklahoma State RB Justice Hill
Yes, there is no doubt that the game between Oklahoma State and Texas Tech will be an offensive shootout through the air, but the difference maker in this game could be Cowboys running back Justice Hill. Through three games Hill has racked up 277 yards and 4 touchdowns, which is even more impressive considering the fact that he has averaged 8.1 yards per attempt. If coach Mike Gunday can find a good balance on office and spread out the Red Raider defense, Hill will take advantage of wide open running lanes all game long.
TCU WR’s Jalen Reagor & KaVontae Turpin
The biggest matchup of the weekend in the Big 12 will without a doubt be 17th ranked TCU vs. UT. Both teams have shown major potential to control games on both sides of the ball and the ability to make highlight plays at any moment. For TCU there are two players that I believe could cause serious issues for a young Longhorn secondary. Wide receiver’s Jalen Reagor and KaVontae Turpin have combined for 321 yards and have led the TCU receiving corps in receptions in every game so far this season. The duo will be facing off against a Texas secondary that has shown moments of susceptibility to big plays through the air. Not to mention the Longhorn defense will be without starting Safety BJ Foster for the first half of the game after he was ejected for targeting vs. USC and possibly without starting cornerback Davante Davis who left last weekend’s game with an apparent ankle injury. Look for coach Gary Patterson to find a way to get these two speedsters involved often and early.
Texas QB Sam Ehlinger
The final player to keep your eye on in this first week of Big 12 conference play is Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger. While Ehlinger has had two efficient performances in a row since the Longhorns Week 1 loss to Maryland, the young quarterback seemed to find his confidence last weekend vs. USC. Ehlinger showed trust in his big play wide receivers and his arm strength by taking multiple shots down field. Ehlinger will be going for his fourth straight 200 yard passing game and in all honesty is growing into his pressure filled role as the end all, be all factor for the Longhorns.
So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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