The week in NASCAR
Big race at Texas Motor Speedway this week as season winds down
Trey Campbell
Oct 31, 2017, 3:00 am
Texas Motor Speedway is the site of this week's NASCAR race. Texas Motor Speedway
This weekend the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup series heads for the Lone Star state for race two of three in the round of eight. Texas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile oval located in Justin, Texas(42 miles outside of Dallas). This track was known for LONG green flag runs and pit road strategy but after Speedway Motorsports Incorporated (track owners) and Eddie Gossage (track president) decided to repave and reconfigure this track in 2016, the racing we have seen in the past is now long gone. Look for more passes, Side-by-side racing, and bumping this Sunday.
Last week at Martinsville was one of the most controversial finishes of the season as Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin were involved in a major dust up with two laps to go handing the victory to Kyle Busch. With the victory Busch ensures a spot in the championship race at Homestead in three weeks. While this win takes most of the pressure off, Busch is more than likely still going to be a major force. In his 23 starts at TMS his average finish is 11.74. Since 2015 though his average finish is 6.25 the fifth highest amongst active drivers. While he has only won there once, Busch has led 741 laps and has always been up front towards the end.
Even if Busch is good at this track, look for him to try and get out of Texas without any trouble and save their resources for Homestead.
After last week's NIGHTMARE, Chase Elliott looks to rebound and what better place to do it than at one of his best tracks. Going into next week, Elliott has the fourth highest finishing average amongst active drivers since 2015 at 6.25. Now granted he has only raced there three times but the results have been extremely impressive for the third-year driver. Elliot is 26 points behind Kevin Harvick for the fourth and final spot in the championship four so more than likely the only way to get there is to win one of the next two races. Look for the No. 24 to be up front this week.
My predictions go as followed: this week Kevin Harvick will put it all together to win at Texas, locking him into the final four at Homestead. Harvick is due to win at a track he has run so well at. Since 2015 his average finish has been fifth and the last race he led the second most laps (behind Ryan Blaney) in the race. With all the talk about how good Martin Truex Jr. and Jimmie Johnson have been at intermediate tracks (Tracks that are 1.5 miles in length) Harvick has flown under the radar but I look for him to finally pull through and beat these two this week.
Other Drivers to look out for are obviously the favorites in Jimmie Johnson and Martin Truex Jr. Both drivers have performed well here in the past, in fact Johnson has more wins here than anyone with seven. Look for those two to be in the hunt as well.
My dark horse driver this week is Dale Earnhardt Jr. It is no secret that Texas Motor Speedway is a track that holds sentimental value to him. In his first start here in 2000 Earnhardt got his first career win. He led a race high 106 laps and was the dominant car for most of the day seeing how he beat runner-up Jeff Burton by five seconds. While 2017 has been a farewell season Earnhardt and his millions of fans may want to forget, Texas has been one of his better tracks of late seeing how he finished second and third the last two times he has raced here. Could this be the race where he breaks out and gets maybe his final NASCAR victory? While it may look unlikely considering his mediocre average finish of 16.9 this year, if all the stars align I could not think of anywhere more fitting for him to win possibly his last race than the place where he won his first.
Look for the No. 88 to give it one last run for the win at Texas Motor Speedway.
(All stats and information used in this article is brought to you by the good folks at driver averages.com and Racing-Refrence.com the best website for all NASCAR stats)
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The Astros have already been swept in four series this season. They were swept in four series all of last season. As Mexico City says bienvenidos to the Astros this weekend, there are certainly more than a few folks fretting that the Astros are already close to saying adios to playoff hopes. The Astros are not at the point of no return, though one can see it out there on the horizon. It wouldn’t take another month of their garbage level 7-19 performance for the season to be essentially down the drain.
If the Astros were in the American League East, they’d already be ten games out of second place. But they’re not! If in the AL Central they’d be eleven and a half games back of Cleveland. But they’re not! Dozens of teams have rebounded to win divisions from larger deficits much later in the season than the Astros face presently. The Seattle Mariners lead the thus far weak AL West at 13-12. The Astros being six and a half games in arrears of the M’s and six back of the Texas Rangers in late April is far from optimal but nowhere near devastating.
Multiple media outlets have noted how few teams historically have started a season in as stumblebum a fashion as the 2024 Astros and wound up making the playoffs. What every outlet I have seen noting that failed to include: this is just the third season since Major League Baseball added a third Wild Card to each league’s postseason field. So, while 7-19 out of the gate is indisputably awful, it is not the death knell to the extent it has been over generations of MLB.
The issue isn’t where the Astros sit in the standings, it’s that they have played atrocious baseball and aren’t providing reason for optimism that a stark turnaround is imminent. The starting rotation is the best hope. Justin Verlander has made two starts. Framber Valdez rejoins the rotation Sunday. Cristian Javier should be a week or so away. Obviously, Ronel Blanco isn’t going to continue pitching as well as he has through his first four starts. But if he is a good number four starter, that’s fine if the top three coming into the season pitch to reasonably hoped for form.
Hunter Brown simply is not a good big league pitcher. Maybe he someday fulfills his potential, but the data at this point are clear. What can Brown do for you? Not much. Spencer Arrighetti needs better command to be a good big league starter. J.P. France was a revelation over his first 17 starts last season, but since has looked like the guy who posted underwhelming numbers when in the minor leagues. If the Astros wind up with 50-plus starts from Brown/Arrighetti/France their goose will probably be cooked.
The only MLB teams with worse staff earned run averages than the Astros’ horrific 5.07 are the Chicago White Sox (Wait! They have Martin Maldonado!) and Colorado Rockies. At 3-22 the White Sox are on an early pace to post the worst record in the history of Major League Baseball. The Rockies never have a chance to post good pitching stats because of the mile high offensive freak show environment in Denver.
Way to go, Joe
Props to Joe Espada for his conviction in making what he believed to be the right call in pulling Verlander after four and a third innings Thursday at Wrigley Field. Verlander allowed no runs but had reached 95 pitches in just the second outing of the injury-delayed start to his season. Not easy for a rookie manager skippering what has been a Titanic journey thus far to pull a surefire Hall of Famer who was two outs away from qualifying for a win. Many were no doubt poised to destroy Espada had Rafael Montero given up the lead in the fifth. Verlander was angry at being pulled from any chance at his 259th career win. Understood, but the manager’s job is to make the decisions he thinks are in the ballclub’s overall best interest. That Montero and Bryan Abreu combined to blow the lead in the sixth is immaterial.
Then there's the offense…
Six runs total the last four games. Scored more than four runs in just one of the last nine games. Timely hitting largely non-existent.
At last check Alex Bregman still hawks that “Breggy Bomb” salsa. At the plate, he’s been mostly stuck in “Breggy Bum” mode, including zero bombs (home runs). 23 games played without a homer is Bregman’s longest drought since 2017 when he had separate 35 and 27 game stretches between dingers. Bregman has a history of slow first months of the season, but never anything as inept as he’s posted thus far. A litany of lazy fly balls, infield pops, and routine grounders add up to a .216 batting average and feeble .566 OPS. Reference point: Martin Maldonado’s worst OPS season with the Astros was .573. If Bregman was a young guy handed a starting job coming out of spring training, if a viable alternative were available, there’s a chance he’d be a Sugar Land Space Cowboy right now. Bregman’s track record makes it a decent bet that he winds up with decent numbers, but nothing special. Certainly nothing remotely worth the 10 years 300 million dollars or whatever Bregman and agent Scott Boras intend(ed) to seek on the free agent market this coming offseason. Two hits Thursday did get Bregman to the 1000 hit plateau for his career.
Despite arriving south of the border with his batting average at .346, even Jose Altuve has his warts. With runners in scoring position, Altuve has one hit this season. One. In 16 at bats. Small sample size, but it counts. That’s .063. Yordan Alvarez has been no great shakes either, five for 24 (.208) with RISP.
One wonders what would happen if the Astros got a hold of and “lost” Jose Abreu’s passport/visa this weekend in Mexico City and Abreu couldn’t get back into the U.S. after the two-game set with the Rockies.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.