The Texans and Cowboys are fighting a battle against recent history with a long-tenured coach
Bill O'Brien or Jason Garrett making a Super Bowl? History says doubtful
Jan 15, 2019, 7:15 am
Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images
Raheel Ramzanali
Years with a Team Before an NFL Coach Coached in the Super Bowl
With Championship Sunday this weekend and Andy Reid just one game away from making it to the Super Bowl with the Chiefs AND Sean McVay one game away in his second year, I wanted to go back and look up what the average number of years a coach has been with a team before he makes the Super Bowl during the Brady Era (2002 - Present). The numbers are posted above and if you're a Texans fan, history isn't on your side. On average, if a coach doesn't make a Super Bowl by his third season, he is probably not going to make it since the average is 3.3 years of the 22 coaches that made an appearance for the first time with their respective teams.
Is There a Right Time To Move on from a Coach?
Two coaches made it to the Super Bowl past their fifth years. Andy Reid with the Eagles in year six after making it to the NFC title game four straight times and finally winning it the fourth. Mike Holmgren, playing with house money since he won a Super Bowl in Green Bay, made it to the Super Bowl in his seventh season with the Seahawks and had the longest leash of all the coaches on this list in terms of success in the playoffs with his current team and getting more years.
Here's the list of longest tenured coaches not to make a Super Bowl with their current team (Minimum five years):
- Jason Garrett (nine seasons),
- Andy Reid (sixth with the Chiefs)
- Bill O'Brien (five seasons)
- Mike Zimmer (five seasons)
Garrett and O'Brien have only reached the divisional round while Reid and Zimmer have reached their respective title games. Specifically speaking for the Texans, the contract extension last year for O'Brien is even more frustrating because by the end of it, it is more likely O'Brien will be closer to Marvin Lewis and Jason Garrett than Mike Holmgren since there's only a 10% chance a coach makes it to the Super Bowl after his fifth year with the same team.
The Defense For O'Brien
This is where the Franchise QB Argument comes in. O'Brien has never had a dynamic QB like Deshaun and that's the hope every Texan fan has for the next four years. Looking at just the numbers, it took Sean Payton and Drew Brees four years together before they cracked a Super Bowl. It took Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll two years before they made it to a Super Bowl. This is the one caveat with my post, O'Brien has a franchise QB to mold and get to Super Bowl levels.
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
The Astros and the Yankees in the Bronx this weekend. Fun! And important. Both teams have been in results ruts for a while. The Astros have gone 9-16 over their last 25 games while the Yankees’ funk is longer extending, producing a 19-29 mess over their last 48 games. Despite the Seattle Mariners closing in, the Astros still lead the American League West. The Yankees’ hopes of again winning the AL East are fading toward the point of no return. They have tumbled six and a half games behind the Toronto Blue Jays and also lag three games behind the rampaging Boston Red Sox. Hence, the Yankees are under clearly more pressure than are the Astros this weekend. The pitching matchups in the first two games strongly favor the Astros. Friday night it’s Hunter Brown opposite rookie Cam Schlittler who makes his fifth big league appearance. Saturday afternoon it’s Framber Valdez versus Luis Gil, who was the 2024 American League Rookie of the Year, but missed the first four months of this season with a lat injury. Gil made his 2025 debut Sunday, and was terrible. The Astros’ quality rotation depth beyond Brown and Valdez is non-existent at this point. Their Sunday starter will be a lesser starter than the Yankees’ Max Fried. Of course, in one game you never know.
The Astros have thoroughly owned the Yankees in their most meaningful meetings over the last decade. In 2015 the ousted the Yankees in a one-game Wild Card matchup. Then came the real soul-crushers with the Astros vanquishing the Yanks in the 2017, 2019, and 2022 American League Championship Series, with it getting easier for the Astros as time went on. The 2017 series went the maximum seven games, 2019 took six, 2022 was a four-game Astros’ sweep. The regular season has been a different matter. The Yankees have beaten the Astros in 11 of 14 games over the last two years. Last season the Yankees walloped the Astros six wins to one. They only play six times this regular season: the three in New York this weekend then three at Daikin Park in early September.
Here comes the Judge
While the Astros (and their fans) endure a seemingly never-ending wait for Yordan Alvarez’s return to the lineup, the Yankees have Aaron Judge back after a 10-day stint on the injured list. Judge carries the burden of soft career postseason stats (though he has 16 home runs in just 58 postseason games and his career playoffs OPS is just 21 points lower than Alex Bregman’s), but this is a legendary player. Judge’s career OPS stands at a whopping 1.024. That number will drop during the decline years remaining in his career, but here’s the list of all time Major Leaguers higher than 1.024: Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Barry Bonds, and Jimmie Foxx. Those are arguably the four greatest offensive players in MLB history, plus Foxx who probably rates in the top 20. If he holds up the rest of the season, Judge is a cinch for his third AL Most Valuable Player Award in four years.
Turn back the clock
Should they choose to check it out, the Astros can watch the Yankees’ Old-Timers' Game Saturday. Though most of the greatest of Yankee legends have died, there will still be a fabulous cast of alumni who soak up cheers during introductions, with many of them then taking part in a two or three inning game. The Yankees are by far the most storied franchise in MLB. The Astros have plenty of history and beloved players over multiple generations to copy the concept, and have their own Old-Timers' Day at Daikin Park. Would it not be a blast to see Roger Clemens pitch to Craig Biggio? Roy Oswalt to Lance Berkman? As I said during our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast this week, I wouldn’t bet against 78 (as of Friday)-year-old Jose Cruz squaring up a ball for a line drive. Make Astros’ Old Timers’ Day happen in 2026 Jim Crane!
Angry birds
The best team in the American League is Toronto, best for now anyway. The Blue Jays have been the best over the last two months-plus. The Jays woke up May 29 at 27-28. Since then they are 41-20. Over that time frame the Astros have the third-best record in the AL behind the Jays and Red Sox. A notable part of Toronto’s success the past month is Joey Loperfido. He didn’t make the Jays’ big league squad coming out of spring training, and wasn’t called up until July 6. Over 72 at bats since getting back to “The Show” Loperfido is batting .389 with a .978 OPS. Reminder that Loperfido hit .372 over his first 43 at bats with the Astros. Full credit to Joey for a magnificent month. Still, there is no reason for the Astros to be wracked with regret for having included Loperfido in last season’s trade for Yusei Kikuchi.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
_____________________________________________
*Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!