The Texans and Cowboys are fighting a battle against recent history with a long-tenured coach
Bill O'Brien or Jason Garrett making a Super Bowl? History says doubtful
Jan 15, 2019, 7:15 am
Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images
Raheel Ramzanali
Years with a Team Before an NFL Coach Coached in the Super Bowl
With Championship Sunday this weekend and Andy Reid just one game away from making it to the Super Bowl with the Chiefs AND Sean McVay one game away in his second year, I wanted to go back and look up what the average number of years a coach has been with a team before he makes the Super Bowl during the Brady Era (2002 - Present). The numbers are posted above and if you're a Texans fan, history isn't on your side. On average, if a coach doesn't make a Super Bowl by his third season, he is probably not going to make it since the average is 3.3 years of the 22 coaches that made an appearance for the first time with their respective teams.
Is There a Right Time To Move on from a Coach?
Two coaches made it to the Super Bowl past their fifth years. Andy Reid with the Eagles in year six after making it to the NFC title game four straight times and finally winning it the fourth. Mike Holmgren, playing with house money since he won a Super Bowl in Green Bay, made it to the Super Bowl in his seventh season with the Seahawks and had the longest leash of all the coaches on this list in terms of success in the playoffs with his current team and getting more years.
Here's the list of longest tenured coaches not to make a Super Bowl with their current team (Minimum five years):
- Jason Garrett (nine seasons),
- Andy Reid (sixth with the Chiefs)
- Bill O'Brien (five seasons)
- Mike Zimmer (five seasons)
Garrett and O'Brien have only reached the divisional round while Reid and Zimmer have reached their respective title games. Specifically speaking for the Texans, the contract extension last year for O'Brien is even more frustrating because by the end of it, it is more likely O'Brien will be closer to Marvin Lewis and Jason Garrett than Mike Holmgren since there's only a 10% chance a coach makes it to the Super Bowl after his fifth year with the same team.
The Defense For O'Brien
This is where the Franchise QB Argument comes in. O'Brien has never had a dynamic QB like Deshaun and that's the hope every Texan fan has for the next four years. Looking at just the numbers, it took Sean Payton and Drew Brees four years together before they cracked a Super Bowl. It took Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll two years before they made it to a Super Bowl. This is the one caveat with my post, O'Brien has a franchise QB to mold and get to Super Bowl levels.
Yainer Diaz homered, Josh Hader got the last four outs for his major league-leading 25th save, and the Houston Astros spoiled Shohei Ohtani's 31st birthday, beating the Los Angeles Dodgers 6-4 on Saturday.
Ohtani made his fourth mound start of the season, pitching two scoreless innings as he continues to work his way back from elbow surgery. He struck out the side in the second.
Justin Wrobleski (4-3) relieved Ohtani to start the third, and that's when the Dodgers' problems started. Zack Short hit a two-run double as Houston scored four times in the inning. Diaz went deep leading off the fourth, his 11th of the season.
Mookie Betts hit his 11th homer for the Dodgers in the first, and Miguel Rojas' two-run shot in the fourth pulled LA within 5-4.
Jose Altuve led off the seventh with a triple and scored on a sacrifice fly.
Hader entered with two on and two out in the eighth and struck out pinch-hitter Esteury Ruiz. In the ninth, he allowed a leadoff single to Ohtani but retired Betts, Will Smith and Freddie Freeman to end it.
Framber Valdez (10-4) struck out seven and allowed four runs in six innings.
Key moment
The Dodgers sent Michael Conforto to the plate to pinch-hit with two out in the eighth, and the Astros brought in Hader. Manager Dave Roberts replaced Conforto with Ruiz, who fanned on Hader's slider.
Key stat
The Astros have scored 24 runs in the first two games of the series. On Friday night, they handed the Dodgers their worst loss in the history of Dodger Stadium, 18-1.
Up next
Astros RHP Ryan Gusto (5-3, 4.90 ERA) will face the Dodgers' Emmet Sheehan (0-0, 2.25) for Sunday’s series finale.