Justin Verlander gets the call in Game 1. Bob Levey/Getty Images
The Astros and Indians begin the ALDS on Friday at Minute Maid Park. The series features two teams with dominant rotations and deep lineups. While the Astros come in with home field advantage and a much gaudier regular season win total, the Indians shouldn’t be overlooked.
ROTATIONS:
Game One: Corey Kluber vs Justin Verlander
Kluber and Verlander might be the best pitching matchup anyone will see throughout the entire postseason. Yes, that includes a possible Sale and Verlander matchup. Kluber is a two-time Cy Young Award winner that turned in another Cy Young worthy campaign in 2018, leading the league in innings pitched with 215.0. He turned in a 2.89 ERA, striking out 222 hitters.
Kluber dominates with movement and effective pitch tunneling, as shown here.
There’s hundreds of examples of this sort of tunneling from Kluber. For those unfamiliar with the term tunneling, it means that pitches look like the same for an extended period of time. For instance, in the video link above, two pitches are overlaid from the same at-bat, a 90 MPH two-seam fastball and an 88 MPH cutter. They look like the same pitch out of the hand, but the two-seamer darts away late and the cutter runs in on the hitter’s hands. This leads to extremely uncomfortable at-bats for hitters, because they don’t know what pitch to look for.
Kluber will be opposed by another Cy Young candidate in Verlander. Verlander has found the fountain of youth in Houston, dominating the 2018 season at the age of 35. Verlander was just as much of a workhorse for Houston as Kluber was for Cleveland, throwing one less inning than Kluber, but striking out 70 more hitters, which led the league. Verlander’s 2.52 ERA is also slightly better than Kluber’s. Put simply, these two will be an amazing matchup to watch, and my guess is the first team to two wins.
Game Two: Carlos Carrasco vs Gerrit Cole
Game two features another marquee pitching matchup between Carrasco and Cole. Cole certainly had a better season than Carrasco, as he had a lower ERA and FIP, more strikeouts, and more innings pitched.
Digging deeper into the numbers, game two looks even more encouraging for Houston. Carrasco started two games against Houston this year, both in May. Houston touched up Carrasco in game one. While he did last 7 ⅔ innings, the Astros scattered eight hits, scoring three runs. Brian McCann had a homer for Houston, and both Josh Reddick and Yuli Gurriel had doubles. In his second start against Houston, Carrasco got roughed up even more, allowing five runs and seven hits in 5 ⅔ innings. Carrasco came away with the win that day, as Lance McCullers struggled, giving up seven runs in 4 ⅓.
Cleveland has seen Gerrit Cole once this year, which was a wild Sunday day game in Cleveland that went to extra innings. Cole lasted seven innings, allowing four hits. Three of the four hits he allowed were homers, and Cleveland went on to win 10-9 in 10 innings.
These numbers bode well for Houston. The Astros will be seeing Carrasco for the third time this year while the Indians will be seeing Cole just for the second time. Not to mention, Carrasco has been a member of the Indians since 2009, and the Astros have seen him a lot over the last few seasons. Cole has been pitching in the NL, so Houston will be much more familiar with Carrasco than Cleveland will be with Cole. Cole will obviously be looking to defend against the long ball since Cleveland mashed three of them against him earlier in the year, but getting to pitch at Minute Maid Park instead of at Progressive Field on a hot day in May where the ball carries well will help.
Game Three: Mike Clevinger vs Dallas Keuchel
The Astros win game three off of name recognition, but it will still be quite the pitching matchup. Clevinger had a fantastic season for Cleveland, logging 200 innings, the first time he’s hit the mark in his three year career. He also had a 3.02 ERA and a 3.52 FIP while striking out 207 batters. Keuchel struggled with inconsistency in 2018. He routinely started off games rough before settling in and pitching better late in games. In the playoffs pitchers don’t get the luxury of time, and A.J. Hinch will certainly have a quick hook. Keuchel pitched 204 ⅔ innings in 2018 to the tune of a 3.74 ERA, which was in line with a 3.69 FIP.
Similar to Carrasco, Clevinger struggled against Houston in 2018. Clevinger lasted 6 ⅓ in his first start against the ‘Stros, allowing eight hits and four walks, leading to three Astros runs. George Springer homered off of Clevinger in that game. In his second start against Houston, Clevinger lasted 5 ⅓, giving up five runs on seven hits and three walks. Alex Bregman homered and doubled off of Clevinger.
In a microcosm of his season, Keuchel was inconsistent against the Indians in 2018. He was touched up in his first start against them, allowing four runs and lasting just five innings. In his second start, he was much better, allowing two runs in six innings, scattering eight hits.
ASTROS KEYS TO SUCCESS:
Look for the Astros to grind out long at bats against the Cleveland starters and try to get them to turn it over to the bullpen. Cleveland’s bullpen is better than it was when the teams played six games against each other in May, but it still has a fair share of holes. Starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Shane Bieber will be available to provide length out of the bullpen, but the back end is spotty. Andrew Miller hasn’t had the type of year baseball fans are used to seeing him have, and he hasn’t been any better down the stretch. Over the last 28 days, Miller has a 6.30 ERA in 10 games pitched. Cody Allen has also had a really tough year, with a 4.70 ERA in 70 games pitched. His numbers over the last month are similar to Miller’s, as he’s pitched in 10 games with a 6.48 ERA. Adam Cimber also hasn’t been the reliable arm the Indians expected him to be when they acquired him alongside Brad Hand at the trade deadline. Cimber has a 4.05 ERA and a 6.06 FIP in an Indians uniform. While he’s been much better than Miller and Allen in September, he’s been far from shutdown. The only worrisome arm in Cleveland’s bullpen will be Hand, whose been just as spectacular as an Indian as he was as a Padre.
INDIANS KEYS TO SUCCESS:
While the Astros will be looking to grind out at bats, the Indians should be looking to combat that. Expect the Indians pitchers to really attack the Astros hitters and try to force them to swing the bat early in counts. It sounds like a scary strategy considering the Astros lineup, but the Houston offense isn’t nearly as good this postseason as it was last postseason. While Springer has swung the bat for a high average as of late, the thumb injury he suffered against the Los Angeles Dodgers has zapped his power, hitting just seven extra base hits in the month and a half since suffering the injury. Altuve hasn’t hit for as much power this year, Carlos Correa has been lost at the plate, and Gurriel isn’t a power hitting first baseman that will strike fear into the Cleveland staff. Frankly, Cleveland can attack Houston hitters without having to worry too much about obscene damage being done outside of Bregman. If Cleveland can force the Astros to swing the bat early in the count and keep the Astros from doing damage with those swings, they have a chance to upset the defending World Series champions.
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There was a conversation Cleveland guard Donovan Mitchell had during training camp, the topic being all the teams that were generating the most preseason buzz in the Eastern Conference. Boston was coming off an NBA championship. New York got Karl-Anthony Towns. Philadelphia added Paul George.
The Cavs? Not a big topic in early October. And Mitchell fully understood why.
“What have we done?” Mitchell asked. “They don't talk about us. That's fine. We'll just hold ourselves to our standard.”
That approach seems to be working.
For the first time in 36 seasons — yes, even before the LeBron James eras in Cleveland — the Cavaliers are atop the NBA at the 25-game mark. They're 21-4, having come back to earth a bit following a 15-0 start but still better than anyone in the league at this point.
“We've kept our standards pretty high,” Cavaliers coach Kenny Atkinson said. “And we keep it going.”
The Cavs are just one of the surprise stories that have emerged as the season nears the one-third-done mark. Orlando — the only team still unbeaten at home — is off to its best start in 16 years at 17-9 and having done most of that without All-Star forward Paolo Banchero. And Houston is 16-8, behind only the Cavs, Boston, Oklahoma City and Memphis so far in the race for the league's best record.
Cleveland was a playoff team a year ago, as was Orlando. And the Rockets planted seeds for improvement last year as well; an 11-game winning streak late in the season fueled a push where they finished 41-41 in a major step forward after a few years of rebuilding.
“We kind of set that foundation last year to compete with everybody,” Rockets coach Ime Udoka said. “Obviously, we had some ups and downs with winning and losing streaks at times, but to finish the season the way we did, getting to .500, 11-game winning streak and some close losses against high-level playoff teams, I think we kind of proved that to ourselves last year that that's who we're going to be.”
A sign of the respect the Rockets are getting: Oddsmakers at BetMGM Scorebook have made them a favorite in 17 of 24 games so far this season, after favoring them only 30 times in 82 games last season.
“Based on coaches, players, GMs, people that we all know what they're saying, it seems like everybody else is taking notice as well,” Udoka said.
They're taking notice of Orlando as well. The Magic lost their best player and haven't skipped a beat.
Banchero's injury after five games figured to doom Orlando for a while, and the Magic went 0-4 immediately after he tore his oblique. Entering Tuesday, they're 14-3 since — and now have to regroup yet again. Franz Wagner stepped into the best-player-on-team role when Banchero got hurt, and now Wagner is going to miss several weeks with the exact same injury.
Ask Magic coach Jamahl Mosley how the team has persevered, and he'll quickly credit everyone but himself. Around the league, it's Mosley getting a ton of the credit — and rightly so — for what Orlando is doing.
“I think that has to do a lot with Mose. ... I have known him a long time,” Phoenix guard Bradley Beal said. “A huge fan of his and what he is doing. It is a testament to him and the way they’ve built this team.”
The Magic know better than most how good Cleveland is, and vice versa. The teams went seven games in an Eastern Conference first-round series last spring, the Cavs winning the finale at home to advance to Round 2.
Atkinson was brought in by Cleveland to try and turn good into great. The job isn't anywhere near finished — nobody is raising any banners for “best record after 25 games” — but Atkinson realized fairly early that this Cavs team has serious potential.
“We’re so caught up in like the process of improve, improve, improve each game, improve each practice," Atkinson said. “That’s kind of my philosophy. But then you hit 10-0, and obviously the media starts talking and all that, and you’re like, ‘Man, this could be something special brewing here.’”