PAY THE MAN!

The definitive list of reasons why Correa, Astros are better together than apart

The definitive list of reasons why Correa, Astros are better together than apart
The Astros need to re-sign Carlos Correa. Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images.
Astros strike a long-term deal with Carlos Correa

Why is everybody so convinced that Carlos Correa has played his last game in an Astros uniform? Is it because he's the best of the bunch of free agent shortstops and for the past year Correa's been speaking in the pluperfect past tense about his time with the Astros? Or is it because he's priced himself out of the Astros market by insisting on a really long-term contract?

To all that … not so fast. While it looks like Correa holds all the cards, the Astros do have some leverage in keeping him. To answer the Clash, should he stay or should he go, it's in both the Astros and Correa's best interest for him to stay in Houston.

Over his seven years in the big leagues, Correa has gained a reputation as a clutch-hitting warrior with a killer baseball mentality.

Among the teams reportedly pursuing Correa: the Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles and Minnesota Twins. Collectively, those teams finished 119 games out of first place this year. Three of them finished in last place. The Tigers were mathematically saved from the cellar because they play in the same division as the bottom-feeding Twins.

If Correa signs with one of those teams, he'll be perceived as a money grubber, not a good look for the image-conscious shortstop.

If Correa bristled at the jeers he received around the league this year, imagine the chorus of "cheater" and "F-Correa" he'll hear if he signs with Detroit, where he'll be reunited with A.J. Hinch, manager of the scandalous 2017 Astros. Another thing, and it's not a small thing, I lived in Detroit for a year once. I had fun there and it started a career for me. I like Detroit, but it's currently a city of big-time sports losers.

Hockey's legendary Detroit Red Wings are in last place. Football's Detroit Lions are in last place with a spotless 0-8 record. Basketball's Detroit Pistons are in last place at 1-6. The Tigers were spared last place but were in the red at 77-85 this season.

You have no idea how cold Detroit can get in April and September. Good thing Correa wouldn't have to worry about playing in October.

Here's something else Correa should consider. Great players don't win World Series. Great teams do. While Correa is a perfect fit with the Astros, it's unlikely he'd turn the Orioles or Rangers into a winner.

Mike Trout is generally regarded as the greatest player in baseball over his 11 seasons. He can do it all, a five-tool guy if there ever was one. He's won three MVP Awards and finished in the Top 4 voting nine times. He is the highest-paid player in baseball history. Trout has played in a total of one post-season series. His Angels were swept 3-0 and Trout went 1-12 at the plate. Money can't buy him love, and definitely not a World Series ring.

I keep hearing that Correa is headed for a goldmine because the Mets signed Francisco Lindor to a 10-year, $341 million contract last year, so Correa should expect a similar deal. After all, Correa and Lindor are the same age and Correa currently is a better player than Lindor.

But Lindor's contract may be the best argument against a team breaking its bank for Correa. Lindor played 125 games for the Mets this season and hit a career-low .230 with only 20 homers after bashing 33, 38 and 32 dingers his previous three full seasons in Cleveland.

If the Mets could reverse the Earth's rotation (like Superman) and go back in time, put it this way, he ain't getting $341 million over 10.

Free agents who sign big-money, multiyear contracts rarely live up to the investment. See: Albert Pujols (10 years, $240 million), Yoenis Cespedes (4 years, $110 million), Carl Crawford (7 years, $142 million), Chris Davis (7 years, $161 million), Jacoby Ellsbury (7 years, $143 million), Prince Fielder (9 years, $214 million), just to name a few. That's what is called stupid money.

Astros owner Jim Crane isn't stupid. He will make a reasonable, competitive offer to Correa. Then it's up to Correa and the advice his agent gives him.

Correa is an extraordinarily gifted athlete who hits in the clutch and has a military-grade throwing arm. He is not, at least not yet, a Hall of Fame player. He has a career batting average of .277. Over his seven years with the Astros, he's made two All-Star teams. He has never driven in more than 100 runs. He has spent significant time on the injured list in three of his seven seasons.

Bottom line, and Astros owner Jim Crane understands bottom lines, Correa means more to the Astros than plate appearances and fielding statistics. He is a direct link to the Astros amazing, consistent success over the past five years. Fans love Correa, pure and simple. Perhaps the most interesting thing about Correa, his actual full name according to Spanish naming customs is Carlos Javier Correa Oppenheimer. After his next contract, he may need to see an Oppenheimer financial advisor.

To lose Correa would be a public relations blow to the Astros. But baseball is a cut-throat business. And truth is, the Astros probably could stand to say goodbye to Correa and still say hello to the post-season in 2022.

In recent years, the Astros lost Gerrit Cole, George Springer and, for all intents and purposes, Justin Verlander … three players who made significant contributions to the Astros. How did the Astros deal with their loss? Five consecutive ALCS appearances, three American League pennants and one World Series title.

Owner Crane knows he'll have to dig deep in his pockets and swallow a long-term deal to keep Correa in the home team clubhouse at Minute Maid Park. Crane also knows he'll be a hero if he does. With the Texans and Rockets in the dumpster, Crane and the Astros have turned Houston in a baseball town. Signing Correa will keep it that way.

Most Popular

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome

Listen Live

ESPN Houston 97.5 FM
Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are hot names at the Winter Meetings. Composite Getty Image.

The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.

The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.

Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.

Back to Bregman

Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.

While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.

Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.

Bang for your buck

Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.

Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.

Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.

The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome