Houston stays alive
Carlos Correa's walk-off homer forces Game 6 in ALCS
Oct 15, 2020, 7:48 pm
Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images
Astros Carlos Correa
With a win under their belt by taking Game 4, the Astros moved on from avoiding being swept in the ALCS and shifted their focus to Game 5 as they try day-by-day to stay alive in the postseason and potentially advance to the World Series. With Dusty Baker betting on his bullpen and not starting Framber Valdez on short rest, he tried to set his team up to be better positioned for the final two games. First, they needed to survive one more game.
They would do just that, in dramatic fashion, with a walk-off win in the bottom of the ninth. The victory comes on a bullpen day for both teams, and keeps Houston in the hunt for their second World Series in franchise history.
Final Score: Astros 4, Rays 3.
Series: TB leads 3-2.
Winning Pitcher: Ryan Pressly.
Losing Pitcher: Nick Anderson.
Teams trade early solo homers to start the bullpen day
Luis Garcia was who manager Dusty Baker turned to in a critical start in Game 5. He would have a perfect top of the first, then was immediately given a lead to work with thanks to a first-pitch home run by George Springer to lead-off the bottom of the inning.
Leadoff #SpringerDinger! pic.twitter.com/lZOBlcZ52a
— MLB (@MLB) October 15, 2020
Garcia worked himself into trouble in the top of the second, losing command of the zone and loading the bases on two walks and a hit batter, but stranded all three runners to end the inning. Blake Taylor would take over in the top of the third but would allow a game-tying solo homer against his first batter. He would get two outs before Houston moved on to Enoli Paredes to finish the inning.
Brantley puts the Astros ahead in the third
Houston would get that run back plus another in the bottom of the third, getting back-to-back hits by Josh Redick and Martin Maldonado to start the inning, setting up a two-RBI single by Michael Brantley to make it a 3-1 lead. Paredes continued on the mound to go as far as possible, erasing two walks for a scoreless top of the fourth, then returned in the fifth.
Randy Arozarena would cut the lead to one run against him in the top of the fifth, hitting a one-out solo homer to make it 3-2. Paredes would face one more batter, giving up a walk, before Andre Scrubb would be the next arm out of the bullpen. Scrubb finished the fifth, then came back for two more outs in the sixth, giving way to Brooks Raley, who came in to face the left-handed-hitting Brandon Lowe, who he would retire to end the inning.
Carlos Correa walks it off to force Game 6
Raley would get two more outs, retiring the first two batters of the top of the seventh before Josh James would come in to finish the inning. Still 3-2 in the top of the eighth, James would stay in the game, but Ji-Man Choi would start the inning with a solo home run to tie the game 3-3.
He allowed a single next but erased it with an impressive double play to empty the bases. James would come up limp after that play, though, and Houston would bring in closer Ryan Pressly to try and get an inning plus. He got a strikeout to end the eighth before Houston's top of the order would go down 1-2-3 in the bottom of the inning. Pressly would get the four outs asked of him, working around a leadoff single in the top of the ninth for a scoreless frame. In the bottom of the ninth, Carlos Correa would play the hero, getting a walk-off solo home run to force Game 6, keeping the Astros alive another day.
#Postseason walk-offs are the best kind of walk-offs. pic.twitter.com/XORH3kVrY1
— MLB (@MLB) October 16, 2020
Up Next: ALCS Game 6 between the Astros and Rays will be another early-evening game, with first pitch at 5:07 PM Central. While it hasn't been formally announced, it's expected to be a repeat pitching matchup from Game 1, with Framber Valdez on the mound for Houston and Blake Snell for Tampa Bay. The Astros will flip back as the visiting team for this game, and Game 7, if needed.
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So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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