Sound smart for the rematch we've all been waiting for
The Casual Fans Guide to Rockets versus Warriors
Apr 27, 2019, 6:11 pm
Sound smart for the rematch we've all been waiting for
The 87 warm up games are over.
Everything the Rockets have done since they were eliminated by the Golden State Warriors has been strategically geared toward coordinating a playoff rematch of a series where Houston pushed arguably the greatest basketball team ever assembled to the brink of elimination. And while the rendezvous is a round earlier than expected, it looks to be just as much of a battle as the classic series basketball fans were treated to last season. Here's a look at what to expect from the first must-watch playoff series.
How Houston got here
Houston slipped down from a potential second seed playoff berth to the fourth seed on the last week of the season, drawing a round one match up against the Utah Jazz. The Jazz came into the series as one of the hottest teams in the NBA since the All Star Break. Unphased, the Rockets set about smacking them around the Toyota Center in games one and two. Game three was an ugly slop-fest, but Houston's star power carried them across the finish line to go up three games to one. Jazz star guard Donovan Mitchell erupted in the fourth quarter of game four to eek out a win at the last moment, which brought the series back to Houston. Wednesday night the Rockets polished the Jazz off, and in spite of the Warriors/Clippers series having yet to determine a victor, Houston preemptively mounted up and headed to the bay area in anticipation of the inevitable.
How Golden State got here
If you haven't heard by now, the Golden State Warriors are really good. Actually, as far as the regular season is concerned, they were the best in the western conference. Their number one seed saw the defending champions square off against the eighth seeded Los Angeles Clippers. The Warriors jumped all over the Clippers in game one just as everyone expected, with former MVP Steph Curry dropping 38 points in a 121-104 victory.
In game two, the Warriors became the joke of the week as they blew an NBA playoff record 31-point lead and managed to cede a home game to the Clippers.
Game three and four were Warrior victories, and as Houston closed out the Jazz on Wednesday, Golden State failed to do the same. The Clippers' game five victory began to raise concern and at the very least gave the talking heads something to yell at each other about until Friday. Kevin Durant--apparently over everyone's nonsense--dropped 50 points on the Clippers en route to a series clinching victory.
Know your enemy
Stephen Curry - Former MVP and all star point guard. Stephen Curry is basically the greatest shooter of all time, and that was established before he started wearing contacts roughly a month ago. So yeah, he could get better. Great. Curry is one of the key pieces of what is essentially an All-Star team that was given 82 games to get to know each other.
Klay Thompson -Shooting guard. Thompson plays great defense, and has deadly range which he puts on display regularly via Curry-fed catch and shoots from beyond the 3-point line. Thompson still believes that goatees are cool. He also pitches chocolate milk as his post-game recovery drink on TV, which I almost kind of believe. He's easy to spot, as he's the player that most resembles a video game create-a-player that--beyond adding a goatee--looks like no changes were made.
Kevin Durant - Former MVP small forward and one of the top three basketball players on the planet. At nearly 7 feet tall he has the length to shoot over you, the speed to blow past you, and range from all over the court. Durant also has a lot of feelings, and likes to let you know through his burner twitter accounts. Durant also thinks goatees are cool. Whatever.
Draymond Green - Power forward. Green is the linchpin of the entire operation. He's a defensive juggernaut and the kind of glue guy you'll find diving after loose balls. He also talks a lot of trash. Then, because he's on a generationally-talented team, he backs it up. At one point he had a respectable jump shot, but they must have broken up because that thing is nowhere to be found. Made a name for himself kicking other players in spots they would prefer to not be kicked. Green very easily falls into that category of player that fans love when he's on their roster and despise otherwise.
Andrew Bogut - Center. Big Australian that knows the Warriors system well enough to warrant a call as insurance if/when starting center DeMarcus Cousins went down with an injury. Bogut won't be leaned on for anything outside of defense and an inside presence to counter the Rockets' Clint Capela.
Prediction
The Rockets are in for a dogfight. Golden State is the number one seed for a reason. They're widely expected by most to defeat the Rockets, but those same people will also agree that if there is one team that can oust the Warriors in the west, it's the Rockets. General Manager Daryl Morey has made it very clear that this is a Rockets roster specifically designed to beat Golden State, and it's largely worked. In their past 14 contests, Houston is 8-6 against the defending champions.
Houston enters this rematch much deeper than a year before, while Golden State's depth-outside of Andre Iguodala--has alternatively taken a noticeable step back. The Rockets are fully healthy (*knocks on wood*), while Golden State lost their starting center for the remainder of the playoffs in round one. While they may not have home court advantage like they did a year before, Houston is still a dangerous team.
The Warriors, however, are still the Warriors. They've won 3 of the last 4 NBA Championships and have lost none of their core. Houston has a shot. Houston can beat them. Houston is not favored, however, and they shouldn't be.
The problem is that Kevin Durant will not be stopped because he can't be. The Rockets' best chance will be to do their best against Durant, while shutting down Thompson and forcing Curry into foul trouble via isolation plays against James Harden. A lot of things have to go right for Houston to win, and it's entirely possible.
From an objective standpoint however, it's difficult to pick against the Warriors until someone finally beats them. I expect at least a six game series and would not be surprised with another game seven. The Warriors should win, but the series will most likely go down as the best of the 2019 playoffs.
I'd prefer to be wrong, but I predict Warriors in six.
The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
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