THE PALLILOG
Charlie Pallilo: Rockets should make quick work of the T Wolves
Apr 13, 2018, 8:45 am
James Harden and the Rockets should have no trouble with the Wolves. Rockets.com
The two most renowned local steakhouses in Minneapolis are Manny’s and Murray’s. Best I can tell neither Manny nor Murray has wolf on his menu, but the Timberwolves should be meat in their first playoff appearance in 14 years. It’s not an automatic that the Rockets dispatch the Timberwolves in the first round, but it is a mismatch on paper.
The Rockets won an astounding 65 games this season, 18 more than Minnesota. Not that regular season meetings are close to foolproof in dictating how a playoff matchup will go, but the Rockets whipped the Wolves in all four games this season winning by 18, 18, 18, and 9 points. The Rockets were the best offensive team in the NBA this season. They should carve up the league’s fourth worst defense. The T’Wolves can score, ranking fourth best offensively. However, Minnesota attempted and made the fewest three pointers in the league. Without stepping up there it’s tough to see the Timberwolves hanging with the Rockets’ firepower over the course of the series. The 22-year-old Karl-Anthony Towns is an absolute stud offensive player. He is a 55-percent shooter from the floor, a 42-percent 3-point maker and 86 percent at the line. And props to KAT for playing all 82 games of the regular season, as did fellow Minny starters Andrew Wiggins and Taj Gibson. The Rockets’ defensive depth takes a hit with the injury absence of Luc Mbah a Moute, but losing Luc is no series shifter. Jimmy Butler is a top tier defender, but unless James Harden’s level of play dramatically dips Butler shouldn’t dramatically disrupt Harden’s effectiveness. Thinking Rockets in five.
The way the cookie crumbled at the end of the congested Western Conference race below the Rockets and Warriors means the Rockets in round two will (better!) face either the Thunder or the Jazz. Upset potential would loom larger there.
Five times since the NBA expanded to 16 playoff teams in 1984, a number eight seed has stunned a number one seed. The first occurrence presumably aided the Rockets’ route to their first NBA Championship in 1994. The first round was a best-of-five in those days, and Denver rallied from two games down to shock Seattle. Most recently the 76ers bumped off the Bulls in 2012 after MVP Derrick Rose tore an ACL in game one. That came the year after Memphis ousted San Antonio. In 1999, The Jeff Van Gundy-coached Knicks took out Miami, and kept on going all the way to the NBA Final before losing to the Spurs. The cake-taker eight topples one was in 2007 when Don Nelson’s 42-40 Golden State team (the Warriors’ first playoff appearance in 13 years) befuddled and overwhelmed Avery Johnson’s 67-15 Dallas Mavericks’ team.
Getting the boot
A little bit of a bummer that the NBA scheduled Rockets-Timberwolves Game 1 for Sunday night, since the Astros and Rangers are the weekend’s Sunday Night Baseball game.
The Rangers ran rings around the Astros for years with the Silver Boot took up seeming permanent residence in Arlington. That was then. Now, the Astros are a juggernaut poised to be excellent for years. The Rangers are naut. As in naut good. And not looking like they’ll be good any time soon. Sunday night’s pitching matchup perfectly frames where the Astros are vs. where the Rangers are. The Astros pitch Justin Verlander, a 35 year old horse in prime physical condition on top of his game. The Rangers pitch Bartolo Colon who next month turns 45, is listed at 5 feet eleven inches tall, weighing 285 pounds.
Nothing wrong with the Astros 9-4 start, though it does leave them in second place in the American League West later than they were ever out of the lead last season. It would be nice to see flashes of George Springer World Series MVP sometime soon. Since his season opening leadoff home run Springer has been sub-replacement level, batting .157 without a second dinger. Over his last seven games Springer has been worse: three measly singles in 28 at bats (.107). Less than 10 percent of the season has been played. Yeah, let’s hold off from any silly notion about suggesting A.J. Hinch demote Springer from the leadoff spot. The guy is in the heart of his prime at 28 years old. Springer can be streaky, but season-to-season he’s been consistently very good, and last year excellent. Of course he could have an off year relative to 2017, but Springer should still hit .260+, with a solid number of walks drawn, and with 25+ homers.
Buzzer Beaters
1. Andre Ingram’s 10 years in the making NBA debut against the Rockets Tuesday is as cool as anything in sports so far this year. 2. It will be laughable if the Cleveland Browns draft Josh Allen No. 1 overall. 3. The NBA’s greatest Allens: Bronze-Lucius Silver-Iverson Gold-Ray
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Just one week ago, it looked like the Astros’ bats might finally be waking up. There was a noticeable uptick in offensive numbers, optimism in the air, and a belief creeping in that Houston could be on the verge of an offensive breakthrough. But if there was any momentum building, it collapsed over the past week.
In their latest seven-game stretch, the Astros were near the bottom of the league in virtually every key offensive metric — 24th in runs scored, 27th in OPS (.610), and 26th in slugging percentage (.337). These numbers aren't just a one-week blip. They are more aligned with the team’s season-long struggles, and it’s becoming increasingly difficult to argue that the Astros are simply off to a slow start. The numbers don’t lie: 25th in home runs (39), 20th in OPS (.689), 23rd in slugging (.372), and 20th in total runs.
The hope was that Houston’s offense would eventually climb into the top 10. That no longer feels realistic. What’s becoming clearer each week is that this is a bottom-third offense — and the only thing keeping them competitive is elite pitching.
Pitching keeps the ship afloat
While the bats have sputtered, the arms have delivered. The Astros currently rank 7th in team ERA (3.39), 1st in WHIP (1.12), and 2nd in opponent batting average (.212). That’s championship-caliber stuff. But as the American League hierarchy takes shape, it’s worth noting that contenders like the Yankees and Tigers boast both top-five pitching and offense — a balance the Astros currently can’t come close to matching.
Core hitters going quiet
So what’s wrong with the offense? Much of it comes down to three players who were supposed to be key contributors: Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, and Yainer Diaz. All three rank in the bottom 30 in MLB in OPS.
For Altuve, the struggles are especially glaring. The month of May has been a black hole for the veteran. He has yet to hit a home run or drive in a run this month. His season numbers (.241/.296/.646) are troubling enough, but the trend line is even worse:
- Last 7 games: .148 AVG / .233 OBP / .185 SLG
- Last 15 games: .175 AVG / .242 OBP / .228 SLG
- Last 30 games: .193 AVG / .256 OBP / .272 SLG
That last stretch has Altuve ranked with the 8th worst OPS (.537) in all of baseball over the last month.
Yet despite the slump — and a 35-year-old body showing signs of wear — Altuve continues to be penciled into the lineup almost daily. Even after missing a game on May 11th with hamstring tightness, he returned the next day. Manager Joe Espada’s reluctance to give Altuve extended rest is becoming a storyline of its own. If he continues to produce at this level, it will be hard to justify keeping him at the top of the lineup.
Rotation takes a blow
The week delivered more bad news — this time on the injury front. The Astros announced that right-hander Hayden Wesneski will miss the remainder of the season and require Tommy John surgery. What makes the injury particularly frustrating is that the signs were there. Decreased velocity led to a longer rest period, but in his return start, the team allowed him to throw 40 pitches in the first inning. That start would be his last of the season.
With Wesneski out, the pressure now shifts to Lance McCullers, whose return was once seen as a bonus but now feels like a necessity. Spencer Arrighetti’s comeback becomes more critical as well. The Astros' rotation has depth, but the margin for error just got thinner.
The road ahead
The American League isn’t dominated by a juggernaut, which gives the Astros some breathing room. But the Yankees and Tigers are pulling away in terms of balance and consistency — the very thing Houston has lacked.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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