THE PALLILOG
Charlie Pallilo: Texans will go as far as their health will carry them
Jul 27, 2018, 8:01 am
Deshaun Watson's health is the biggest key for the Texans. Bob Levey/Getty Images
Hi. It’s been a while. Hey, I used one vacation day in 10-plus months so summertime was my time to catch up on time down. Besides, while I love living in Houston, leaving for any place cooler in July is a smart play. The Texans aren’t in West Virginia for training camp again this year for the scenery. And on we go…
There is a ten-ton elephant of an issue in the room that impacts the Texans’ 2018 prospects more than do the next five issues combined. Will Deshaun Watson stay healthy? In four years as Head Coach Bill O’Brien’s offense has ranged from mediocre to atrocity, except for during Watson’s five game explosion last season. The guy was torching the NFL, then Watson suffered his second ACL tear and the Texans’ offense and season were as hopeless as former General Manager Rick Smith’s typical third round draft picks. New GM Brian Gaine imported multiple question marks as possible new offensive line starters. The answers from the likes of Senio Kelemete and Seantrel Henderson might not be great, but they can’t be worse (right?) than what the Texans put out most of last season. Watson will not survive having to run around and make chicken feathers out of chicken you-know-what on a series-in series-out basis. A healthy Watson is not going to come close to having the Texans average the 39 points per game they did during his five game phenom run (remember the Texans went 2-3 in those games). But one can conceive a 10 or 11 win thrill ride with him.
A horrifying reminder that Brandon Weeden is Watson’s backup.
If right now you could lock in a 14 game, nine sack regular season from J.J. Watt, would you take it? I would in a heartbeat. After playing every game of his first five seasons, the majority of the time at an all-time great’s level, Watt’s last two years have been a disaster. He is now 29 years old. After two major back operations and last year’s horrible leg injury Watt is unlikely to approach being the dominant force he once was. In the four and a half games he played before the injury last season Watt was very average. Sacks are far from everything in judging a defensive end, but they darn sure aren’t nothing. Nothing was Watt’s sack output. Was he just more slowly than desired rounding back into form, or did the cruel combo of traumatic injury and Father Time shove him irretrievably past his prime? If superduperstar Watt is a goner, a merely above average J.J. can still add value to a defense that needs it.
Turning back the clock
In 2008, the Rockets adding Carmelo Anthony would have been spectacularly exciting. In 2018, well… You may know that I am a Syracuse University alum, so Carmelo will always hold a verrrry warm place in my heart for the national championship he was primarily responsible for delivering for the Orange back in 2003.
Anthony joining the Rockets is interesting for the “let’s see how this works” aspect of it. Any idea that Carmelo, Chris Paul, or anyone else may hold that the Rockets now have a Big 3 is ridiculous. Anthony is 34 years old, has never been noted as a defender, and for his career is a mediocre 3-point shooter. He could be a valuable role player, but will he accept the role? Melo chafed, and did not thrive in a complementary role alongside Russell Westbrook and Paul George for Oklahoma City this past season. Anthony’s play in the Thunder’s first round playoff loss to Utah was downright awful.
Frankly, James Ennis is probably the more significant Rockets acquisition, because if Daryl Morey turns out to have successfully replaced the 3 and versatile D roles vacated by Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah A Moute’s free agency departures, it’s Ennis with the more matching skills.
Add in the Rockets not reaching contractual accord, yet, with Clint Capela, and this has not been a stellar offseason. If Capela really rejected five years $85 million, he needs to get a grip. There was basically no market for him in restricted free agency. If Capela signs the one year 4.75 million dollar tender offer he becomes an unrestricted free agent next summer. That could be a big uh oh. The Rockets’ chemistry, mojo, esprit de corps was so magnificent last season. It will be difficult to match in 2018-19.
Lots on the Astros next week. And everyday I’m on the radio show 11-1.
Buzzer Beaters
1. Don’t panic yet, but Carlos Correa having back issues at 23 is definitely troubling. 2. I love Alex Bregman’s fire (and talent), but he was wrong about the fan interference call in Denver Wednesday night. 3. Best summer fruits: Bronze-Blueberries Silver-Honeydew Gold-Watermelon
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.