IN THE MONEY
Del Olaleye: 3 players who stand to get paid based on the NBA postseason
Del Olaleye
Apr 18, 2018, 4:42 am
Clint Capela is earning a big contract somewhere. Jason Miller
The NBA playoffs are under way and I could spend time using this space to breakdown matchups or what this postseason will mean to James Harden’s legacy. I could do that, but I won’t. I do enough of that on the radio and so do other people. I’m much more interested in the game inside the game. I’m talking about guys who could cash in on a big postseason. What is Clint Capela worth? Is Kyrie Irving being hurt the best thing that could happen to Boston’s Terry Rozier? Will the Wolves series against the Rockets change the way the NBA sees Derrick Rose?
Who is the next Jonathon Simmons? If you remember back to last year’s playoffs, Simmons became a playoff star for what he did in the Spurs-Rockets series. He helped the Spurs eliminate the Rockets while Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard were injured. He scored 12 points in a pivotal Game 5 and 18 points in San Antonio’s 39-point Game 6 victory that closed out the Rockets in Houston. Simmons averaged 6.2 points in the regular season but scored in double figures 10 times in the postseason. His overall performance led to three-year deal worth $20 million from the Orlando Magic. A modest number by NBA standards but certainly a huge increase over the $874,000 Simmons made in his final season with the Spurs. Here are three guys who have a shot to duplicate the impact that Simmons provided and earn substantial raises because of what they do in these playoffs.
Clint Capela
Capela has done enough regular season work to get a big deal. This postseason gives him a shot to cement himself as a premiere big man in the league. He used Game 1 of his playoff run to dominate a big man with a pretty good reputation. The athleticism difference between Capela and the Wolves’ Karl Anthony Towns was a drastic one. Capela’s fluidity and his ability to get up down the court was evident and the box score reflected the difference between the two young centers. Capela put together a dominant all-around game that featured 24 points and 12 rebounds. Towns finished with eight points in 40 minutes. Capela’s impact on Houston’s success has been well documented throughout the season. Game 1 was just further confirmation of just how important he is to the Rockets. A successful playoff run for the Rockets could potentially put Capela in the discussion for max money this offseason.
Contract Status: Restricted Free Agent ‘18
Terry Rozier
Much like the inspiration for the piece, Rozier has been given an opportunity due to an injury to a star. Celtics point guard Kyrie Irving is out for the playoffs and Rozier goes from backup to starter on team that entered the season with title aspirations. As the backup at both backcourt positions Rozier had his best season as pro in his third season. He saw his minutes, points and shooting percentages increase significantly. In his first game as a starting point guard in the playoffs, Rozier scored 23 points, pulled down four rebounds and dished out three assists with no turnovers. Most importantly he made multiple big shots down the stretch, somewhat duplicating Irving’s big shot ability. A strong playoff run by Rozier could place him in high demand for a team desperate for a young and improving point guard. Rozier is set to make just over three million dollars in the final year of his deal. At a premium position like point guard a productive 2018 playoff run could land Rozier a deal worth eight figures annually.
Contract Status: Restricted Free Agent ‘19
Oklahoma City’s Jerami Grant
Grant’s regular season numbers are modest at first glance and they don’t make you think of a guy who is in line for a big deal but there is a precedent for springy bench players getting lucrative deals. Moe Harkless of the Portland Trailblazers used a strong playoff performance over eleven games in 2016 to see his annual salary increase from just over $2.8 million to just under $9 million. The Blazers rewarded him for his increased production over the course of those two 2016 series with a deal worth $42 million. Grant’s role as a energy bench player is important to the Thunder’s second unit. His style is a complement to Russell Westbrook’s frenetic style of play when Westbrook tries to push the pace. Grant’s energy leads to putbacks for himself and second chance opportunities for his team. Paid just over $1.5 million in the final year of his deal, a big playoff performance could see Grant’s annual salary multiplied by six.
Contract Status: Unrestricted Free Agent ‘18
Shoutout to Matthew Dellavedova, the ultimate playoff finesser. He went from making just over $1.1 million on a one year deal in Cleveland to getting paid $38 million over four years in Milwaukee. That raise was primarily based on a postseason where he scored in double figures seven times in 20 games as Kyrie Irving’s backup for Cleveland in 2015. He became a national story for all of five days when Irving was injured in the Finals against the Golden State Warriors. He’s still in Milwaukee by the way. As I type this he’s playing in garbage time as the Bucks are about to go down 0-2 in their series with the Celtics.
The playoffs can be lucrative for potential stars or the 8th and 9th men in a rotation.
Gerald Green, go get yours.
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While holding one’s breath that for a change the Astros aren’t publicly grossly underestimating an injury’s severity with Jose Altuve having missed the last game and a half with “right side discomfort…”
The Astros averting a sweep vs. Oakland Thursday was in no way a must-win, but getting the win allowed a mini sigh of relief. The Astros are NOT in the process of choking. Could they collapse? Sure that’s possible. Also possible is that they’ve just been in one more ebb phase in a season of ebb and flow. They certainly have left the door ajar for the Seattle Mariners to swipe the American League West, but with the M's simply not looking good enough to walk through that door the Astros remain in commanding position. The Astros made a spectacular charge from 10 games behind to grab the division lead. But there was a lot of runway left when the Astros awoke June 19th 10 games in arrears. September 3 the Astros arose with a comfy six game lead over the M’s. With Seattle blowing a 4-1 eighth inning lead in a 5-4 loss to the Texas Rangers Thursday night, heading into Friday night the Astros' advantage is back up to four and a half games despite the Astros having lost six of their last nine games and having gone just 10-12 over their last 22 games. Not a good stretch but nothing freefalling about it.
While the Mariners have the remainder of their four-game series vs. the dead in the water Rangers this weekend, the Astros play three at the lousy Los Angeles Angels. The Astros should take advantage of the Halos, with whom they also have a four-game series at Minute Maid Park next weekend. Since the All-Star break, only the White Sox have a worse record than the Angels 19-31 mark (the White Sox are 6-43 post-break!). Two of the three starting pitchers the Angels will throw this weekend will be making their third big league starts. To begin next week the Astros are in San Diego for a three-game-set against a Padres club which is flat better than the Astros right now. That does not mean the Astros can’t take that series. The Mariners meanwhile will be still at home, for three vs. the Yankees.
There are some brutal Astros’ statistics that largely explain why this is merely a pretty good team and not more. As I have noted before, it is a fallacy that the best teams are usually superior in close games. But the Astros have been pathetic in close games. There used to be a joke made about Sammy Sosa that he could blow you out, but he couldn’t beat you. Meaning being that when the score was 6-1, 8-3 or the like Sammy would pad his stats with home runs and runs batted in galore. But in a tight game, don’t count on Sammy to come through very often. In one-run games the Astros are 15-26, in two-run games they are 10-14. In games that were tied after seven innings they are 3-12. In extra innings they are 5-10. The good news is, all those realities mean nothing when the postseason starts. So long as you’re in the postseason. In games decided by three or more runs the Astros have pummeled the opposition to the tune of 53 wins and 28 losses.
General Manager Dana Brown isn’t an Executive of the Year candidate, but overall he’s been fine this season. Without the Yusei Kikuchi trade deadline acquisition the Astros would likely barely lead the AL West. Brown’s biggest offseason get, Victor Caratini, has done very solid work in his part-time role. Though he has tapered off notably the last month and change, relief pitcher Tayler Scott was a fabulous signing. Scrap heap pickups Ben Gamel, Jason Heyward, and Kaleb Ort have all made contributions. However…
Dana. Dana! You made yourself look very silly with comments this week somewhat scoffing at people being concerned with or dismissive of Justin Verlander’s ability to be a meaningful playoff contributor. Brown re-sang a ridiculous past tune, the “check the back of his baseball card” baloney. Dana, did you mean like the back of Jose Abreu’s baseball card? Perhaps Brown has never seen those brokerage ads in which at the end in fine print and/or in rapidly spoken words “past performance is no guarantee of future results” always must be included. Past (overall career) performance as indicative of future results for a 41-year-old pitcher who has frequently looked terrible and has twice missed chunks of this season to two different injuries is absurd. That Verlander could find it in time is plausible. That of course he’ll find it? Absolutely not. His next two starts are slotted to be against the feeble Angels, so even if the results are better, it won’t mean “JV IS BACK!”
Presuming they hold on to win the division, the Astros’ recent sub-middling play means they have only very faint hope of avoiding having to play the best-of-three Wild Card Series. Barring a dramatic turn over the regular season’s final fortnight, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown are the obvious choices to start games one and two. If there is a game three, it is one game do or die. Only a fool would think Verlander the right man for that assignment. No one should expect Brown to say “Yeah, JV is likely finished as a frontline starter.” But going to the “back of the baseball card” line was laughable. Father Time gets us all eventually. Verlander has an uphill climb extricating himself from Father Time’s grasp.
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.