NBA WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
Del Olaleye: 3 Reasons the Rockets are hosting Game 1 of the conference finals
Del Olaleye
May 9, 2018, 6:25 am
P.J. Tucker was a nice offseason addition. Christian Petersen/Getty Images
We’re on the verge on what most basketball people will say was inevitable. It is the matchup “we’ve all been waiting for” and has been frequently positioned as the matchup “we all expected.” That narrative has been true for quite some time but it wasn’t that way before the season and I think pretending that it was does a disservice to the Rockets. There were reasons to not believe in the Rockets before the season started. Specifically, whatever the hell James Harden was doing in Game 6 against the Spurs. It seems dumb now but there were plenty of new and unproven parts that made the Rockets a question mark. Houston used a 65-win regular season to answer a number of those questions. Dismantling the Wolves and the Jazz was the prelude to the impending Death Star that is the Warriors. Here are some of the reasons the Rockets will open Game 1 of the Western Conference finals at home.
1) Harden and Paul coexisting
The obvious first question regarding the Rockets was the Harden/Paul dynamic. How would these two ball-dominant players co-exist? Just fine as it turns out. We’ve seen it all year. Taking turns hasn’t been an issue when they’re both on the floor. They both spend enough of time as the primary ball handler while the other rests on the bench that each has time to be the lead dog without deferring to the other. Credit goes to Mike D’Antoni and his system for creating opportunities for each player to thrive. Both have playoff failures that they’re trying to erase. As it turns out each player might be the best thing for the other’s legacy.
2) The Journeymen
Long thought to be consumed with having three stars on his team, Daryl Morey’s apparent failure to acquire Paul George or Carmelo Anthony in the offseason helped lead to the emergence of PJ Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute on this Rockets roster. Their additions gave the Rockets a defensive presence that didn’t exist on previous Harden-era teams. The addition of Mbah a Moute came later in the summer and didn’t have the name recognition of Tucker’s but his defensive prowess this season has not gone unnoticed. The two combined have added a surprising offensive boost as well. Tucker’s corner 3s always seem to be made at important junctures. Mbah a Moute has proven to be a better than expected driver and finisher. His ability to take advantage of opponents that are caught trying to rotate to open Rockets surrounding the arc has been a boon. These offseason additions combined with Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon make the Rockets a versatile force on the defensive end and their varying skills offensively put stress on a opposing defenses as Harden or Paul orchestrate the offense.
Gordon, Ariza, Tucker and Mbah a Moute have each played for at least three different NBA teams. Ariza is the most well-traveled in the NBA, playing for six different teams. Tucker spent five years abroad, playing for seven different teams around the world. The four 30-somethings got it done all year long.
3) Emergence of Capela
After 82 games and several great performances in the playoffs, Clint Capela appears to be garnering all the attention he deserves. The record when Capela, Paul and Harden play is now 50-5. Credit to the people who decided to start keeping that stat. The late first rounder from the 2014 draft has become the fulcrum for the Rocket’s offense as his screen setting and finishing puts the opposing big man in awkward positions. “Do I push up on Chris Paul to take away the mid-range jumper or hang back to avoid a tip dunk or layup from Capela?”
Altered shots may not be an official statistic but the hesitation that Jazz players entered the lane with when Capela was on the floor was evident. Outplaying Karl Anthony-Towns and Rudy Gobert in back-to-back series certainly came at an opportune time for the impending restricted free agent. Daryl Morey’s decision on whether or not to retain Capela when Paul George and potentially Kawhi Leonard will be available is an interesting one for the Rockets GM. Another big performance in a series win over the Warriors may make Capela an untouchable with Houston.
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The Texans make just their third ever visit to Lambeau Field Sunday. It’s a dandy matchup as the Texans try to run their record to 6-1 at the expense of the 4-2 Green Bay Packers. The Texans have one win and one loss in Wisconsin. In 2008 the gameday high temperature was 13 degrees. Kris Brown kicked a 40 yard field goal as time expired to give the Texans a 24-21 win over a Packers team that struggled to a 6-10 record under first-year starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Texans posted their second consecutive 8-8 finish that year. In 2016 the mercury reached a balmy high of 34 degrees as the Texans fell 21-13 at Lambeau. Inexplicably, Rodgers somehow managed to win the quarterback matchup with Brock Osweiler. The Texans and Packers each won their division that year. Both Texans’ trips to “America’s Dairyland” occurred in December. No risk of frozen tundra this time around. The forecast for Green Bay Sunday calls for a high of 75 degrees! That’s almost 20 degrees warmer than normal there for October 20.
It’s a dynamic QB matchup with C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love sharing the field. Love broke out in a huge way in 2023 after serving a two-year apprenticeship under Rodgers. After a stumbling 3-6 start to their season the Packers went 6-2 the rest of the way to snag a playoff spot. They obliterated the Cowboys in a Wild Card game in Arlington (before everyone obliterated the Cowboys in Arlington...) then led at the 49ers with under 90 seconds to go before San Francisco scored to win 24-21. The Packers made crystal clear their belief in Love by signing him to a four-year 220 million dollar contract extension in July. That’s 55 mil per season. Stroud becomes extension-eligible after next season. Anyone think he won’t be in position to command at least 65 mil per season?
Stroud sure looks to be the guy to finally give the Texans the long-term stability and excellence they have never had at the most important position in the sport. The Pack is all in on Love continuing its unreal long-term QB stability and excellence. Love took the reins after Rodgers helmed the offense for 15 seasons. Rodgers took the reins after Brett Favre’s 16-year tenure. So if Love makes it for nine years as the starter, that’s three primary QBs in 40 years. Absolutely amazing.
After missing two games because of a sprained knee ligament suffered in the final seconds of the Packers’ season opening loss to the Eagles in Brazil, Love has thrown 10 touchdown passes in three games. But he has only completed 59 percent of his passes, and has thrown at least one interception per game.
The Texans’ first trip to the NFC North this season went brutally badly, the 34-7 beatdown from Minnesota. The Vikings beat the Packers 31-29 in week four of the season. That was Love’s first game back, he threw four touchdown passes and three picks. One defensive weapon the Texans will have against the Pack they did not have against the Vikes is Denico Autry. The 34-year-old Autry returns from his six-game banned substance suspension. That happens as one of the fill-ins for him, Mario Edwards, starts his own four-game substance abuse suspension. That should be a net improvement for the Texans.
X-factors
The single biggest variable in swinging the outcome of football games is turnovers. So far this season the Packers have been a takeaway machine. Last season the Packers generated just 18 turnovers over their 17 regular season games, only six teams took the ball away less often. Through just six games this season the Packers already have 17 takeaways. No other NFL team has more than 13, the Texans have just seven. The Packers have produced exactly three turnovers in five of their six games, and got two in the other. Every defense preaches turnovers, so it’s not as if first-year Green Bay defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has introduced radical concepts that are yielding magical results. But the results are what they are.
If the Texans take care of the ball, they have a terrific chance to win. Having Joe Mixon back aids the cause on two fronts. One, Mixon is obviously the Texans’ best running back. Two, Mixon last fumbled in 2021. The Texans probably best plan to score 25 or more points to win this one because the Packers figure to score a bit. In Love’s four starts the Pack has lit the scoreboard for 29, 29, 24, and 34 points. On the other hand, the Texans’ D has been pretty stout, allowing the third-fewest yards per game (Green Bay rates 18th). It’s a strength vs. strength battle. The Texans have allowed no opponent more than 313 yards in total offense. The Packers have amassed at least 378 yards in five of their six games, and managed 328 in their worst performance.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!