NBA WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
Del Olaleye: 3 Reasons the Rockets are hosting Game 1 of the conference finals
Del Olaleye
May 9, 2018, 6:25 am
P.J. Tucker was a nice offseason addition. Christian Petersen/Getty Images
We’re on the verge on what most basketball people will say was inevitable. It is the matchup “we’ve all been waiting for” and has been frequently positioned as the matchup “we all expected.” That narrative has been true for quite some time but it wasn’t that way before the season and I think pretending that it was does a disservice to the Rockets. There were reasons to not believe in the Rockets before the season started. Specifically, whatever the hell James Harden was doing in Game 6 against the Spurs. It seems dumb now but there were plenty of new and unproven parts that made the Rockets a question mark. Houston used a 65-win regular season to answer a number of those questions. Dismantling the Wolves and the Jazz was the prelude to the impending Death Star that is the Warriors. Here are some of the reasons the Rockets will open Game 1 of the Western Conference finals at home.
1) Harden and Paul coexisting
The obvious first question regarding the Rockets was the Harden/Paul dynamic. How would these two ball-dominant players co-exist? Just fine as it turns out. We’ve seen it all year. Taking turns hasn’t been an issue when they’re both on the floor. They both spend enough of time as the primary ball handler while the other rests on the bench that each has time to be the lead dog without deferring to the other. Credit goes to Mike D’Antoni and his system for creating opportunities for each player to thrive. Both have playoff failures that they’re trying to erase. As it turns out each player might be the best thing for the other’s legacy.
2) The Journeymen
Long thought to be consumed with having three stars on his team, Daryl Morey’s apparent failure to acquire Paul George or Carmelo Anthony in the offseason helped lead to the emergence of PJ Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute on this Rockets roster. Their additions gave the Rockets a defensive presence that didn’t exist on previous Harden-era teams. The addition of Mbah a Moute came later in the summer and didn’t have the name recognition of Tucker’s but his defensive prowess this season has not gone unnoticed. The two combined have added a surprising offensive boost as well. Tucker’s corner 3s always seem to be made at important junctures. Mbah a Moute has proven to be a better than expected driver and finisher. His ability to take advantage of opponents that are caught trying to rotate to open Rockets surrounding the arc has been a boon. These offseason additions combined with Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon make the Rockets a versatile force on the defensive end and their varying skills offensively put stress on a opposing defenses as Harden or Paul orchestrate the offense.
Gordon, Ariza, Tucker and Mbah a Moute have each played for at least three different NBA teams. Ariza is the most well-traveled in the NBA, playing for six different teams. Tucker spent five years abroad, playing for seven different teams around the world. The four 30-somethings got it done all year long.
3) Emergence of Capela
After 82 games and several great performances in the playoffs, Clint Capela appears to be garnering all the attention he deserves. The record when Capela, Paul and Harden play is now 50-5. Credit to the people who decided to start keeping that stat. The late first rounder from the 2014 draft has become the fulcrum for the Rocket’s offense as his screen setting and finishing puts the opposing big man in awkward positions. “Do I push up on Chris Paul to take away the mid-range jumper or hang back to avoid a tip dunk or layup from Capela?”
Altered shots may not be an official statistic but the hesitation that Jazz players entered the lane with when Capela was on the floor was evident. Outplaying Karl Anthony-Towns and Rudy Gobert in back-to-back series certainly came at an opportune time for the impending restricted free agent. Daryl Morey’s decision on whether or not to retain Capela when Paul George and potentially Kawhi Leonard will be available is an interesting one for the Rockets GM. Another big performance in a series win over the Warriors may make Capela an untouchable with Houston.
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How Astros advanced metrics tell puzzling story about Houston's start
Apr 17, 2025, 5:21 pm
Major League Baseball’s regular season is 162 games long. You can think of 18 games as the first inning of the season, 18 times nine equaling 162. While the Astros 8-10 record is not good, it’s far from disastrous. Think of it as them being behind 1-0 after the first inning. It is pretty remarkable that they have yet to win consecutive games. Even during last year’s 7-19 stink bomb of a start the Astros twice managed to win two in a row.
The Astros’ offensive woes are plentiful. Oddly enough as impotent as they’ve been, the Astros have yet to be shutout. But in half their games they have scored exactly one or two runs. Basically, most of them stink thus far. Exemptions go to Jose Altuve and Isaac Paredes, but it’s not like either of them has been outstanding. It’s still early enough that one big series can dramatically alter the numbers, but the Astros badly need Yordan Alvarez to pick up his production. Yordan enters the weekend batting just .224 with a .695 OPS and just four extra base hits. Yainer rhymes with minor. As in minor leagues, where Diaz belongs at his current level of performance. That is not saying Diaz should be sent down, just that any random AAA catcher called up couldn’t have done much worse to this point. Diaz isn’t hitting Altuve’s weight, a woeful .130 with seven hits in 57 at bats. Diaz simply remains too undisciplined at the plate swinging at too many balls. He’s drawn three walks. And now to Christian Walker, who thus far has delivered return on investment for his three year 60 million dollar contract about as strong as the stock market’s performance in Tariff Time. Walker’s .154 batting average and .482 OPS are very Astro Jose Abreu-like. Walker’s23 strikeouts in 65 at bats jump off the page. He has often looked befuddled in the batter's box. Walker is definitely pressing and frustrated, wanting to perform better for his new team. Jeremy Pena goes into the weekend batting .215 and has one hit in 13 at bats with runners in scoring position. Brendan Rodgers, Jake Meyers, and Chas McCormick all have weak stat lines, with little reason to expect quality offensive output from any of them. Cam Smith is at .200 with a yucky .591 OPS but he’s obviously a young stud work in progress thrown into the deep end of the pool.
All batting orders are top-heavy, the Astros’ on paper more so than many. As I set forth on one of our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts this week, the first inning should be a team’s best offensive inning. It’s the only frame in which a team gets to dictate who comes up from the start with the batters lined up just as the manager slots them. Add to that, the first inning is a good time to get to a starting pitcher before he settles in. The Astros have scored a pitiful three first inning runs in 18 games, and in two of the games they pushed one across in the first, it turned out to be the only Astro run of the game. Improvement needs to come internally from the big league roster. It’s not as if the Astros have a meaningful prospect at AAA Sugar Land who looks ready to help. Entering play Thursday the Space Cowboys’ team average was .186. Second base hopeful Brice Matthews is nowhere close, batting .180 and striking out left and right. Outfielder Jacob Melton opened three for 17 following the back injury-delayed start to his season.
As exasperating and boring as the offense has been for so many, grading needs to occur on a curve. So, while the Astros’ team batting average is a joke at .216, know that at close of business Wednesday the entire American League was batting just .232. The American League West-leading Texas Rangers scored eight fewer runs over their first 18 games than did the Astros, though that is skewed by the Astros’ one 14-run outburst against the Angels.
Familiar faces return
This weekend the Astros play host to the San Diego Padres at Daikin Park. The Friars are off to a fabulous start at 15-4. The Padres being here creates a mini reunion as both Martin Maldonado and Yuli Gurriel are on their roster. In a telling fact, Maldonado would have the third-highest batting average on the Astros if on the team with his current numbers. Maldonado is hitting .250 with seven hits in 28 at bats. The last season he finished above .200 was 2020. The only season in his career Maldonado topped .234 was his rookie season with a .266 mark in 2012.
Gurriel was last good in 2021 when he won the American League batting title at .319. He fell off a cliff from there, though perked up to have a fine postseason in the Astros’ 2022 run to World Series title number two. “La Pina” is batting .115 with just three hits in 26 at bats. Gurriel may be released soon, and approaching his 41st birthday June 9, that would probably be the end of the line. Short-timer Astro Jason Heyward is also on the Padres, and batting .190.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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