BACK TO SQUARE ONE
This firsthand account of deposition paints fascinating picture for what awaits Deshaun Watson
Jan 25, 2022, 7:14 pm
Watson will be deposed over several days in February and March. Composite image by Jack Brame
There’s a whole lot of doing – and nothing getting done – lately in the terminally neverending drama of Deshaun Watson and his future in football.
Recently floated rumors by “NFL insiders” have Watson as a package deal with hotly pursued coach Brian Flores, Watson to the Minnesota Vikings, Watson to the New York Giants, Watson to the Carolina Panthers.
Some samples:
“Developing story: Deshaun Watson and Brian Flores have been in constant communication trying to navigate a scenario where they go to the same team, per sources.”
“Sources tell me the biggest sleeper in the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes—the Minnesota Vikings.”
“As the Panthers continue to search for their quarterback of the future, a trade (for) Deshaun Watson remains an option.”
“After intense digging into the Coach Flores and Deshaun Watson situations, sources close to the situation say Flores and Watson have had no contact. Flores and Watson don’t have each other’s phone numbers.”
That’s some sources you’ve got there. A better way of putting it, we’re back to Square One with the prospect of Watson going nowhere and doing nothing for another year growing more possible. Again, sources.
There still is the matter of 22 civil lawsuits by masseuses accusing Watson of sexual misconduct. Also, a grand jury is considering the case, which could result in Watson facing criminal charges and a trial. The grand jury’s decision is expected soon.
Here’s what we know for sure, and by sure we mean it’s anybody’s guess how this plays out.
Tony Buzbee, lawyer for the 22 women filing civil suits against Watson, says he will depose Watson over several days in February and March. Sessions are scheduled for Feb. 24-25, Feb. 28, March 1, March 8-9, and March 22-23. The questioning will start at 10 a.m. each day in Buzbee’s downtown office. The deposition is not to exceed 48 hours total and will be videotaped.
Buzbee, champing at the bit for this deposition, will have Watson waxing nostalgic for the time he was gang tackled by the Chicago Bears for a safety. I’ve been there, deposed in a lawyer’s office. It’s an excruciating experience. The newspaper I worked for was being sued and the plaintiff’s side wanted to know what I knew. I was prepped, advised that the opposing lawyer would try to get me angry so I’d crack under pressure and say something dumb. I was grilled for about four hours, which consisted of the same question being asked 1,000 times in 1,000 different ways. I did my best Sgt. Schultz imitation, “I know nothing,” which happened to be the truth. I was closer to a typist in the steno pool than a boardroom executive at that newspaper.
Given the high publicity nature of the case, laughable security measures and outlandish stunts by both sides, I expect videotapes of Watson’s deposition to hit YouTube by 6 p.m.
Recently, a detailed copy of a $100,000 settlement offer by Watson to one of the accusers last October was leaked. Who leaked it? Suspects are limited to every cast member in this B-movie, straight-to-cable drama.
Like those “NFL insiders” speculating on Watson’s future, I have my sources, too. Not to brag, but my sources are just as unreliable as theirs.
Here’s one scenario: the grand jury says the accusations against Watson are worthy of a trial. Watson is found guilty of some sort of misdemeanor and pays a hefty fine. The NFL puts him on the commissioner’s exempt list and sidelines Watson for some, most or all of the 2022 season. Other teams back off trading for Watson and he stays with the Texans who would have to pay him for 2022.
Or Watson is innocent, the grand jury says there insufficient evidence for a trial to proceed, the women drop their civil suits, and Watson is free and clear to continue his career.
It’s a coin flip, and you know how football fans are loving coin flips these days.
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
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