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Despite No. 1 ranking, Duke needs to get better fast

Despite No. 1 ranking, Duke needs to get better fast
Duke is No. 1 but has work to do. Grant Halverson/Getty Images

If you were to look on any sports website I can guarantee there is either a mention of Duke on the main page, or a Zion Williamson highlight. The thing about Duke basketball is that, yes, they are good, but they aren’t great. The Blue Devils rank 62nd in the nation in field goal percentage shooting only 50%, and 121st in 3PT field goal percentage with 37.2%.

For the sake of this article we will focus on their top 3 ranked freshmen. Williamson, RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish come into the season with the expectations of going 1, 2, and 3 in the upcoming NBA draft. While every fan loves to watch Williamson, I believe Barrett is the real No. 1 prospect even with him shooting just 30% from 3-point range. Williamson is shooting 33% from 3, but with his ability to fly, he has his FG% at a staggering 82%. Reddish is the purest scorer on the team with 44% from 3 and a 40% field goal percentage. He takes the most 3’s per game which at this point is warranted. He has 2 other dynamic playmakers to lean on, and his percentage will absolutely keep teams honest, but this will not last long if the entire team can’t make free throws, contested and/or uncontested shots. Coach Mike Krzyzewski understands this very well.

“If there is space, the more space we give the harder it is to defend. The thing about space is that in order for it to be validated you have to be able to hit a shot. That’s why the stand still 3pt shot is a shot that EVERYONE on this team HAS to hit," he said.

Some will call bull; how can Coach K expect everyone from Marques Bolden to Mike Buckmire to be able to hit open 3’s? Practice. Practice. Practice.

“When I coached the U.S. team I talked to them about hitting stand still 3’s,"  Krzyzewski said. "Kobe Bryant said ‘coach I never get a stand still 3’. I said you will get stand still 3s. ‘I’m always double teamed.’ You won’t be double teamed because LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony and those guys will be on the court. You’re going to get open 3s. Then all of a sudden he didn’t hit them. Then he’s in every night shooting 1000 shots and that’s not an exaggeration……….the free throw and the stand still 3 you’ve got to be able to hit.” 

Duke is currently ranked 277th (62%) in free throws and 121st (37%) from 3. If they want to make a serious run at this year’s championship they need to get better fast. The ACC is a power house and never a cake walk. Duke will also play in what is probably the strongest Maui Invitational line up to date. Arizona, Auburn (9), Gonzaga (3), Illinois, Iowa St., San Diego St., and Xavier will all be quality tests for Duke regardless of when they play. Defenses will adjust if Duke is unable to improve their efficiency. With only 3 games into the season it may be premature to call them busts from 3, but if Duke can’t hit them then the three freshmen are going to have a long season; which might even result in the three of them slipping in the draft.  

Follow Christopher Elias on Twitter. (@304_Chris)

 

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Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are hot names at the Winter Meetings. Composite Getty Image.

The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.

The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.

Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.

Back to Bregman

Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.

While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.

Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.

Bang for your buck

Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.

Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.

Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.

The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

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