Houston falls to New York

Disaster in the sixth for Astros as Yankees take series opener

Yankees' Giancarlo Stanton celebrates a home run off of Astros' Zack Greinke
Zack Greinke had another disappointing start on Tuesday. Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images

Zack Greinke had another disappointing start on Tuesday

With victories in their last three series, going 8-3 in that eleven-game span, the Astros traveled to The Bronx to take on the Yankees, and a very energized crowd, at Yankee Stadium for a three-game set. After an exciting back-and-forth early, the Yankees would get a big inning to put things out of reach for Houston, handing them a loss in the opener.

Final Score: Yankees 7, Astros 3

Astros' Record: 15-14, third in the AL West

Winning Pitcher: Lucas Luetge (2-0)

Losing Pitcher: Brandon Bielak (1-1)

Teams trade blows early as Greinke has another forgettable outing

Having been met by boos both in pre-game and in their first at-bats in the top of the first inning, Alex Bregman quickly did his best to silence them by giving Houston a 1-0 lead with a solo home run. New York promptly responded, pounding Zack Greinke in the bottom of the inning. A leadoff single turned into a two-run home run by Giancarlo Stanton; then the Yankees loaded the bases still with no outs. Greinke would limit the damage to one run, but before it was all said and done would have used 31 pitches.

The 3-1 score held until the top of the fourth when a one-out bomb by Michael Brantley into the upper deck cut the deficit to one run. Later that same inning, Yordan Alvarez singled then scored to tie the game on a ground-rule double by Yuli Gurriel that narrowly missed being a homer. Zack Greinke would finish his third consecutive scoreless inning in the bottom of the fourth, but that would be the end of his night: 4.0 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 4 K, 1 HR, 84 P.

Disaster in the sixth

Brandon Bielak would take over for him in the bottom of the fifth, erasing a one-out double to maintain the tie score. He returned in the bottom of the sixth, getting two outs while putting runners on the corners before Dusty Baker would bring in Bryan Abreu.

Disaster would ensue, as a poorly called strike zone resulted in a walk to load the bases, followed by a groundball by DJ LeMaheiu that would be thrown wide by Alex Bregman to Yuli Gurriel, bringing in two runs easily, then a third that resulted in a collision by Rougned Odor into Martin Maldonado, taking both out of the game. Stanton would bring in another on an RBI single to make it 7-3 before Abreu would eventually get the third out.

Yankees take the opener

Andre Scrubb was the next reliever for Houston, working around two walks for a scoreless inning. Joe Smith had the eighth and also put up a zero despite loading the bases on two singles and a walk. Houston came up empty in the top of the ninth, as New York would take the first of this three-game series.

Up Next: The Astros and Yankees will meet for another 6:05 PM Central start on Wednesday. Houston will look to Luis Garcia (0-3, 2.70 ERA) to try and get his first win of the season, while New York will send Jordan Montgomery (1-1, 4.39 ERA) to the mound.

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Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are hot names at the Winter Meetings. Composite Getty Image.

The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.

The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.

Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.

Back to Bregman

Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.

While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.

Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.

Bang for your buck

Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.

Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.

Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.

The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!

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