EVERY-THING SPORTS
An honest discussion about our expectations for the Texans this season
Apr 21, 2021, 10:33 am
The picture will become more clear after the NFL Draft. Composite image by Jack Brame.
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The NFL has gone to a 17 game schedule starting this season. This now means there will be no .500 seasons. Teams will either go 9-8, or 8-9, or 7-7-1, or 8-7-1, or 7-8-1, or worse than that. You get my drift. No need to keep explaining things. We see where this is going. Can the Texans surprise us and be more competitive than we're all thinking?
One easy answer is no. They have a roster that has been thrown together and could be missing Deshaun Watson because of trade or possible suspension. They don't have the draft picks to make an instant impact and get better faster. Plus, they didn't spend big money in free agency to get some big time players. It's easy to say they didn't improve this team enough over last year.
However, are we discounting the guys they brought in? Are we not taking into consideration the hunger for guys on one year prove it type deals? Guys like that are at a crossroads in their careers. They're at a point in which they could be out of the league, but are barely hanging on. When your back is against the wall, you can often come out swinging. I'm not saying the Texans will fight and make a playoff run, but they could be better than we're thinking.
General manager Nick Caserio has done a good job of bringing in some decent talent. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor isn't a scrub and has led a team to a playoff birth recently. Running back Mark Ingram has carried the ball for multiple playoff contenders. They're also switching to a 4-3 defense that'll play mostly a Tampa 2 style defense. Playing more zone coverage instead of man may help this talent deficient defense. Guys will be put into positions to succeed more often than they were previously and that could help immensely.
Do I believe they'll be at or above .500? No, because I can't see this team doing what's necessary to win close games or pull off comeback wins. Will they be one of the worst teams in football? Perhaps, but it's hard to tell right now. We can't discount that all the guys on this roster are still professional football players and made it to the NFL for a reason. I'm thinking this team will go somewhere between 7-10 and 4-13. They won't be a three win or less disaster like most people are thinking. They may be like this year's Rockets and be competitive for a while, then fall off. While I hope they'll flame out in order to get a higher draft pick next offseason, I don't think it'll happen. Let's hope they lose every game by one possession to remain competitive, while satisfying the need for a high draft pick.
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The Texans make just their third ever visit to Lambeau Field Sunday. It’s a dandy matchup as the Texans try to run their record to 6-1 at the expense of the 4-2 Green Bay Packers. The Texans have one win and one loss in Wisconsin. In 2008 the gameday high temperature was 13 degrees. Kris Brown kicked a 40 yard field goal as time expired to give the Texans a 24-21 win over a Packers team that struggled to a 6-10 record under first-year starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Texans posted their second consecutive 8-8 finish that year. In 2016 the mercury reached a balmy high of 34 degrees as the Texans fell 21-13 at Lambeau. Inexplicably, Rodgers somehow managed to win the quarterback matchup with Brock Osweiler. The Texans and Packers each won their division that year. Both Texans’ trips to “America’s Dairyland” occurred in December. No risk of frozen tundra this time around. The forecast for Green Bay Sunday calls for a high of 75 degrees! That’s almost 20 degrees warmer than normal there for October 20.
It’s a dynamic QB matchup with C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love sharing the field. Love broke out in a huge way in 2023 after serving a two-year apprenticeship under Rodgers. After a stumbling 3-6 start to their season the Packers went 6-2 the rest of the way to snag a playoff spot. They obliterated the Cowboys in a Wild Card game in Arlington (before everyone obliterated the Cowboys in Arlington...) then led at the 49ers with under 90 seconds to go before San Francisco scored to win 24-21. The Packers made crystal clear their belief in Love by signing him to a four-year 220 million dollar contract extension in July. That’s 55 mil per season. Stroud becomes extension-eligible after next season. Anyone think he won’t be in position to command at least 65 mil per season?
Stroud sure looks to be the guy to finally give the Texans the long-term stability and excellence they have never had at the most important position in the sport. The Pack is all in on Love continuing its unreal long-term QB stability and excellence. Love took the reins after Rodgers helmed the offense for 15 seasons. Rodgers took the reins after Brett Favre’s 16-year tenure. So if Love makes it for nine years as the starter, that’s three primary QBs in 40 years. Absolutely amazing.
After missing two games because of a sprained knee ligament suffered in the final seconds of the Packers’ season opening loss to the Eagles in Brazil, Love has thrown 10 touchdown passes in three games. But he has only completed 59 percent of his passes, and has thrown at least one interception per game.
The Texans’ first trip to the NFC North this season went brutally badly, the 34-7 beatdown from Minnesota. The Vikings beat the Packers 31-29 in week four of the season. That was Love’s first game back, he threw four touchdown passes and three picks. One defensive weapon the Texans will have against the Pack they did not have against the Vikes is Denico Autry. The 34-year-old Autry returns from his six-game banned substance suspension. That happens as one of the fill-ins for him, Mario Edwards, starts his own four-game substance abuse suspension. That should be a net improvement for the Texans.
X-factors
The single biggest variable in swinging the outcome of football games is turnovers. So far this season the Packers have been a takeaway machine. Last season the Packers generated just 18 turnovers over their 17 regular season games, only six teams took the ball away less often. Through just six games this season the Packers already have 17 takeaways. No other NFL team has more than 13, the Texans have just seven. The Packers have produced exactly three turnovers in five of their six games, and got two in the other. Every defense preaches turnovers, so it’s not as if first-year Green Bay defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has introduced radical concepts that are yielding magical results. But the results are what they are.
If the Texans take care of the ball, they have a terrific chance to win. Having Joe Mixon back aids the cause on two fronts. One, Mixon is obviously the Texans’ best running back. Two, Mixon last fumbled in 2021. The Texans probably best plan to score 25 or more points to win this one because the Packers figure to score a bit. In Love’s four starts the Pack has lit the scoreboard for 29, 29, 24, and 34 points. On the other hand, the Texans’ D has been pretty stout, allowing the third-fewest yards per game (Green Bay rates 18th). It’s a strength vs. strength battle. The Texans have allowed no opponent more than 313 yards in total offense. The Packers have amassed at least 378 yards in five of their six games, and managed 328 in their worst performance.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!