DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH?
Don't be surprised when this talented rookie back makes an impact for the Texans
Jun 17, 2020, 2:51 pm
Photo via: OleMissFootball/Facebook
In 2009, the Houston Texans signed Arian Foster as an undrafted free agent from the University of Tennessee. After he appeared in six games as a rookie, Foster went on to become a four-time Pro-Bowler and a three-time member of the NFL All-Pro team. By the end of his seven-year tenure in Houston, he held the franchise record as the all-time leader in yards (6,472) and rushing touchdowns (54) — which still stands today.
As one of the greatest players in team history, the Texans found a hidden gem in Foster as he became one of the most dynamic running backs of the 2010s. Eleven years later, Houston has another opportunity to strike gold once again with the signing of undrafted free agent, Scottie Phillips.
Unlike most players in his situation, Phillips has a realistic opportunity to not only make the Texans' 54-man roster but also earn playing time due to the uncertainties surrounding Houston's backfield.
David Johnson and Duke Johnson will undoubtedly split the majority number of touches in 2020, but neither of the two are dependable to fill the void as the Texans' every-down back. Throughout their careers, Duke has continuously flourished as a team's dual-threat second option, while David has yet to prove he can return to his 2016 All-Pro form.
Any one of the "Johnson Brothers" have the morale to take the helms as Houston's primary running back, but if one falls short of expectations, it will enable an opportunity for Phillips to showcase his merit as a professional halfback in the NFL.
Placed in the 21st percentile of best running back coming into the 2020 NFL Draft, Maurice Jones-Drew of NFL.com stated,"Phillips was inconsistent at Ole Miss, but showed a lot of promise when he was on. When he flashed, the 5-8, 209-pounder showed great burst, was explosive, and was a sure-fire threat out of the backfield."
The reality that the Texans were able to sign Phillips following the draft was a steal within itself. Several mock drafts had the 5-foot-8 running back from Ole Miss projected as an early-sixth to late-seven round draftee. He currently possesses all the elements of a future franchise halfback, given his ability to breakdown defenders when looking for open gaps in an attempt to make a play downfield. If presented with the chance to capitalize on his skill set, Phillips has the opportunity to become the Texans' primary backup for 2020 — as well as the team's No. 1 option in the near future.
In the video clip above, Phillips' 26-yard rushing touchdown is a prime example of what the Texans can expect from the Mississippi native.
On second-and-2, Phillips was able to maneuver through the smallest gap and instantly switched into second gear to record what could have been a 20-yard gain. However, once warped by a pair of defensive backs, Phillips' strength to power through contact added six more yards to the play — which resulted in a touchdown for the Rebels. His ability to record extra yardage after contact is Phillips' best aspect as a running back.
Based on his stature, Phillips is not the ideal back to insert as a receiver, but he can provide another dependable target for Deshaun Watson coming out of the backfield.
In the video clip above, Phillips' best "sure hands" impression gave way to a 21-yard touchdown reception from quarterback John Plumlee on a third-and-13 down. It was his lone receiving touchdown of the season after recording 77 reception yards on eight catches in 2019.
If not for sharing snaps with a five-star recruit (Jerrion Ealy) amid his senior season, Phillips' stock would have been much higher entering the draft.
Fast. Short. And stocky. The best current player to compare Phillips to is Baltimore Ravens star, Mark Ingram. Despite being slightly below the average height for an NFL running back (5'11), Ingram (5'9) has put together a substantial nine-year career as a three-time Pro-Bowler with 7,025 rushing yards.
In two seasons with the Rebels, Phillips recorded a combined 1,470 rushing yards on 5.2 yards per attempt and 17 touchdowns in 20 games played. Ironically, the best game of his collegiate career took place at NRG Stadium, where he exploded for 204 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries — during Ole Miss' 47-27 victory over Texas Tech in 2018. During his two year stint at Jones County Junior College, Phillips became a top JUCO running back recording 2,282 rushing yards with 27 trips to the end zone.
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The data told the story all year on Duke, Houston, Florida and Auburn. In that regard, it shouldn't be a surprise to see them in the Final Four as only the second all-chalk set of 1-seeds to reach college basketball's final stage.
The Blue Devils, Cougars, Gators and Tigers had held the top four spots in daily rankings from KenPom since the first half of February, and their net efficiency ranks among the best ever charted by the analytics site going back more than a quarter-century. They were also the headliners on data-driven rankings from Bart Torvik and Evan Miyakawa as well, further confirmation of how good these teams have been from November, through March Madness and now entering San Antonio.
There's only a few minor variations in those comparisons. Duke is No. 1 for KenPom and Miyakawa ahead of Houston, while the Cougars are No. 1 in Torvik ahead of the Blue Devils. And the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers are all in the top 10 except for Torvik having the Gators at 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Otherwise, the data matches the eye test.
College and NBA TV analyst Terrence Oglesby, who played at Clemson, pointed to all four having “big, switchable guys who can make shots" as a common thread between the teams operating at elite efficiency on both sides of the ball.
“Outside of that top four, a lot of people were depending on runs,” Oglesby said. “You have to be able to play both sides of the ball with consistency. And these four do that so much better than everyone else.”
And that applies over years, too, when it comes to KenPom's long-running data.
KenPom bases efficiency metrics on points scored or allowed over a standardized 100-possession pace, which eliminates tempo as a factor in high averages boosted by playing at a faster pace or numbers depressed by grind-down-the-clock styles. The overall rankings are determined by net efficiency in terms of how much a team's offensive data outpaces its defensive numbers.
In that regard, Duke's plus-39.62 rating is the second-highest net efficiency recorded by KenPom in data back to the 1996-97 season. Only the Blue Devils' 1998-99 team (plus 43.01) that went 37-2 and lost in the NCAA title game ranks higher.
Duke is coming off a defensive masterclass in the East Region final against 2-seed Alabama, which had scored 113 points and hit 25 3-pointers in its Sweet 16 win against BYU. The Blue Devils have the nation's tallest roster with every rotation player standing 6-feet-5 or taller, and they're an elite switching group with bigs using their length to capably contest against smaller, quicker guards out to the arc.
That helped them smother the Crimson Tide: Alabama went 8 of 32 from 3-point range, made just 45.4% of its two point shots and averaged .942 points per possession. Its 65-point output joined a January loss to Ole Miss (64) as the only times the Tide failed to reach 70 points in the past two seasons.
“Duke is as good a team as we’ve seen all year,” Alabama coach Nate Oats said. "We’ve got some really good teams in the SEC, and they’re at that level.”
Houston (plus 36.49), Florida (plus 36.05) and Auburn (plus 35.25) currently have their own lofty perch, too, with historically elite KenPom numbers.
Consider: only six teams have finished with a net efficiency of at least plus 35 in KenPom's history: Duke 1998-99, Duke 2000-01 (37.32), Kansas 2007-08 (35.21), Kentucky 2014-15 (36.91), Gonzaga 2020-21 (36.48) and UConn 2023-24 (36.43).
Of that group, three teams — Duke 2001, Kansas and UConn — won a national title.
Of this year’s Final Four teams, Duke, Houston and Auburn have ranked inside the top five in all of KenPom’s daily rankings. Florida started the year at No. 26, but cracked the top 10 by late November.
“You need to have depth and need to have multiple guys that can step up when other guys aren’t playing their best,” Florida coach Todd Golden said after Saturday's comeback win against Texas Tech for the program's first Final Four trip since 2014. “That’s why we’ve been good all year and consistent, why we haven’t lost two in a row. We haven’t got in any droughts or situations where nobody’s stepping up.”
Now the Gators are part of a quartet ranked 1-2-3-4 in some order of KenPom’s daily rankings dating to Feb. 12, while Auburn (80) and Duke (50) have combined to hold the No. 1 spot 89.7% of the time in the 145 rankings dating to Nov. 4.
Along the way, Duke (Atlantic Coast Conference ) and Houston (Big 12 ) went 19-1 in league play before winning three games for their league tournament title. Auburn won the regular season and Florida claimed the tournament title in the a Southeastern Conference that produced a record 14 NCAA bids.
The only other time a Final Four featured four 1-seeds came in 2008, with Kansas, Memphis, UCLA and North Carolina making it to through the first two weeks of the NCAA Tournament. Coincidentally, that Final Four also came in San Antonio.
This time could mark a coronation for a team that, from a data standpoint, ranks among the sport's best teams in decades.
“It's been the most dominant run by four teams that I can remember,” Oglesby said. “It's amazing to see really.”