Turbulent Times
Examining how Houston will fare without Russell Westbrook: A Rockets-Thunder series preview
Aug 14, 2020, 7:56 am
Composite photo by Jack Brame
When it was first reported that Russell Westbrook would miss at least the first few games of the first round, Rockets fans fell into a panic and self-loathing state. To some extent, the panic is understandable. Having a star player go down with injury days before the playoffs is never a great place to be in. Star players, unlike role players, have qualities and on-court production that are irreplaceable.
The Rockets are also playing a really good first round opponent in the Oklahoma City Thunder. I will give my prediction soon, but this injury just made the series much more like a traditional 4-5 matchup in that it's closer to a toss up now. However, the self-loathing from Rockets fans is probably a good place to draw the line. Houston, even without Russell Westbrook, will still be (and should still be) considered the favorites to win this series.
Prediction:
Rockets in 6
Why?
Part of why playoff basketball is exciting is because it's incredibly sophisticated, matchup-driven, and you can attack a series from a bunch of different angles. However sometimes, and I'm guilty of this too, we overanalyze it. We try and give reasons why we reach certain conclusions beyond what is right in front of our face. Sometimes playoff basketball can be simple.
That's kind of what's happening here. I'm tempted to give you a convoluted explanation as to why I arrived at this prediction, but my answer is quite simple. The Rockets, for at least 36 minutes a game, will have a top five NBA player surrounded by average shooting at four other positions. And the Thunder, as good as they are (and they're quite good), don't have that. The Rockets, in theory, should be good enough to defeat this first round opponent because they have James Harden.
In practice, there are of course a number of factors that could prevent the Rockets from toppling the Thunder. Let's get into that.
1. The minutes without Harden
This is where Houston will miss Westbrook's presence the most. There will be 8 to 12 minutes a game where the Rockets will be on the floor without a dynamic playmaker. The franchise hasn't had to deal with this problem in the playoffs since 2017. As it was then, this will be a glaring issue until it's not.
The Rockets will have to lean on Austin Rivers and Eric Gordon to take on extra ball handling and playmaking responsibility. Rivers has historically thrived with the team in these circumstances. Rivers plays better with the ball in his hands and the Rockets haven't needed him to play like that unless there's an injury. Rivers will likely see a significant uptick in scoring.
Gordon, on the other hand, just returned from an ankle injury and hasn't caught a rhythm shooting the ball from three-point range this entire year (31.6% from deep the season). It's really hard to say what Rockets fans should expect of him come playoff time. As in past years, he is Houston's biggest X-factor going into the playoffs.
In general, expect the Rockets to be in the red when Harden sits. The goal should be as close to neutral minutes as possible. If they can be -4.0 per 100 possessions instead of -11.0 or something like that, that's a huge plus.
2. The rebounding
Already a weak rebounding team (27th in rebound percentage), the Rockets are losing one of their best rebounders in Westbrook. Even though their strategy as a team is to forgo the rebounding battle every night in favor of turnovers and deflections, there's still a limit to how awful you can be on the glass. Players who have a history of being good rebounder (P.J. Tucker, Robert Covington, James Harden, and Jeff Green) will need to help pick up the slack until Westbrook returns.
3. The shooting
On the season, the Rockets are in the bottom third of the league (21st) in three-point percentage. For context, Houston was 12th last year. They have to be at least average to have any chance in this series. A lot of their struggles this year have come from Eric Gordon's struggles, but everywhere else, they really only have two above average shooters (James Harden and Ben McLemore).
As stated earlier, the Rockets should still be favored to win because they have Harden surrounded by shooting. You need both of those elements to beat a team as good as the Thunder. The Rockets could get away with bad shooting in a playoff game before because Russell Westbrook would generate a ton of unlikely points. They don't have that in their back pocket anymore, so every game they lose will most likely be because they shot poorly from beyond the arc.
I used to have a category in these playoffs previews titled "most important stat". It's not necessary for this preview. The most important stat is obviously going to be Houston's three-point percentage.
4. Houston's defense
I often talked about Houston's defense this year as what could propel them into that top tier of title contendership. For the purposes of this series, they really only need to continue being average. James Harden plus shooters will provide a close proximity to what the Rockets were offensively during the regular season, so they don't need to become something they're not (yet). Losing Russell Westbrook may actually help Houston defensively.
If Eric Gordon defends like he has in past playoff series for the Rockets, they only have to account for one sub-par defender in their starting lineup (Harden). The bench is another story, but in totality, it's not hard to see Houston cobbling together an average defense from minutes 1-43 of every game.
The last five minutes of games will be a huge undertaking for the Rockets. The Thunder have a beast of a closing lineup that revolves around their three-guard lineup of Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Dennis Schroder. Here are their numbers together for the season:
Offensive RTG: 127.1
Defensive RTG: 98.6
Net RTG: +28.6
These numbers are insane for a group that's played together as much as they have (401 minutes). The Rockets without Westbrook will be tempted to close games with Harden, Gordon, House, Covington, and Tucker. Tucker and Covington are versatile defenders who are capable of defending perimeter players, but they will likely have their hands full with Danilo Gallinari and Steven Adams. This is the central dilemma of Houston's closing lineup against the Thunder.
Defending those three guards will likely be a huge undertaking for Harden, Gordon, and House. Gordon has been a reliable playoff defender, but House and Harden are too inconsistent to leave both out on the floor in these moments. It may be prudent for Houston to swap out House for Austin Rivers when they see Oklahoma City pulling out this lineup. Rivers is a more consistent one-on-one defender against quicker guards and, more importantly, asking one inconsistent defender (Harden) to step up in these moments is more feasible than asking two.
Either way, it's going to be interesting to see how Houston fares defensively against an equally guard heavy team.
There's no doubt that the Rockets are in a tough spot. If it were up to them, they would be at full health playing the Utah Jazz in round one. Things didn't go their way and they're here now. The Thunder are better and they have a leg up health-wise. With that said, Houston should still be favored to win this series.
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Jan 10, 2025, 2:32 pm
Everyone raved about the leadership of second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud this week as the Houston Texans prepared for their wild-card playoff game against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Everyone, that is, except the man himself.
“I don’t think I’m a great (leader),” Stroud said sheepishly. “I don’t know. That’s probably a bad thing to say about yourself, but I don’t think I’m all that when it comes to leading. I just try to be myself.”
But the 23-year-old Stroud simply being himself is exactly what makes him the undisputed leader of this team.
“C.J. is authentic, he’s real,” coach DeMeco Ryans said. “It’s not only here, it’s in the locker room around the guys and that’s what leadership is to me. As you evolve as a leader, you just be authentic to yourself. You don’t have to make up anything or make up a speech or make up something to say to guys. C.J. is being C.J.”
Sixth-year offensive lineman Tytus Howard said he knew early on that Stroud would be special.
“He has that aura about him that when he speaks, everybody listens,” he said.
Stroud has helped the Texans win the AFC South and reach the playoffs for a second straight season after they had combined for just 11 wins in the three years before he was drafted second overall.
He was named AP Offensive Rookie of the Year last season, when Houston beat the Browns in the first round before falling to the Ravens in the divisional round.
His stats haven’t been as good as they were in his fabulous rookie season when he threw just five interceptions. But he has put together another strong season in Year 2 despite missing top receiver Nico Collins for five games early and losing Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell to season-ending injuries in the second half of the season. He also started every game despite being sacked a whopping 52 times.
“He’s taken some crazy shots,” Howard said. “But even if he’s getting sacked and stuff like that, he just never lets that get to him. He just continues to fight through it, and it basically uplifts the entire offense.”
He also finds ways to encourage the team off the field and works to build chemistry through team get-togethers. He often invites the guys over to his house for dinner or to watch games. Recently, he rented out a movie theater for a private screening of “Gladiator II.”
“He’s like, ‘I want the guys to come in and bond together because this thing builds off the field and on the field,’” Howard said. “So, we need to be closer.”
Another thing that makes Stroud an effective leader is that his teammates know that he truly cares about them as people and not just players. That was evident in the loss to the Chiefs when Dell was seriously injured. Stroud openly wept as Dell was tended to on the field and remained distraught after he was carted off.
“It was good for people to see me in that light and knowing that there is still a human factor to me,” he said. "And I think that was good for people to see that we’re just normal people at the end of the day.”
Stroud said some of the leaders who molded him were his father, his coaches in high school and college, and more recently Ryans.
His coach said Stroud has been able to lead the team effectively early in his career because he knows there are others he can lean on if he needs help.
“Understanding that it’s not all on him as a leader, it’s all of our guys just buying in, doing what they have to do,” Ryans said. “But also, C.J. understanding a lot of guys are looking up to him on the team and he takes that role seriously. But it’s not a heavy weight for him because we have other leaders, as well, around him.”
Stroud considers himself stubborn and though some consider that a bad quality, he thinks it’s helped him be a better leader. He's had the trait as long as he can remember.
“That kind of carried into the sport,” he said. “Even as a kid, my mom used to always say how stubborn I was and just having a standard is how I hear it. It’s stubborn (but) I just have a standard on how I like things to be done and how I hold myself is a standard.”
And, to be clear, he doesn’t consider himself a bad leader, but he did enjoy hearing that others on the team consider him a great one.
“I just don’t look at myself in that light of just I’m all-world at that,” he said. “But I try my best to lead by example and it’s cool because I don’t ask guys and to hear what they have to say about that is kind of cool.”
Though he doesn’t consider himself a great leader, Stroud does have strong feelings about what constitutes one. And he’s hoping that he’ll be able to do that for his team Saturday to help the Texans to a victory, which would make him the sixth quarterback in NFL history to start and win a playoff game in both of his first two seasons.
“That would be making everybody around you better,” he said of great leaders. “Kind of like a point guard on the offense, the quarterback on the football team, the pitcher on a baseball team — just making everybody around you better.”