JOSH REDDICK DEEP DIVE
Examining Josh Reddick's value to the Astros moving forward
Oct 21, 2020, 11:26 am
Reddick has made some big plays with his glove. Photo by Harry How/Getty Images
Josh Reddick signed a 4-year, $52M contract with the Houston Astros prior to the 2017 offseason. At the time, it was the biggest free agent commitment that Jeff Luhnow had ever made. Believe it or not, it is actually the largest free agent guarantee that Luhnow ever made as GM. Michael Brantley and Carlos Beltran garnered higher AAV's than Reddick, but they were shorter term deals with $16M and $30M in overall payout. Other large contracts on the Astros, like Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, and Jose Altuve, were either acquired via trade or done as extensions.
Four years down the road, Reddick faces free agency again. Reddick has just over nine years of service time, which means he'll undoubtedly seek a contract somewhere in 2021 to accrue 10 years of service time and pick up the benefits that come with that distinction. Reddick clearly isn't in line for a similar deal to what he signed in late 2016 as a player entering his age-30 season, but is there value left in the tank?
Hard Hit % - 29.3%
Barrel % - 4.8%
K % - 20%
BB % - 9.5%
Chase % - 25.7%
Judging off of the numbers, it seems Reddick had a change in approach at the plate. His 20% K% was an 8% increase from last season. His BB% increased by 3%, his chase % decreased 4%, his swing % decreased 4.6%, and his launch angle increased 3.5°. Aside from BB%, all the numbers referenced were either career highs or lows.
What do those numbers say about his approach? Reddick presumably came into 2020 trying to keyhole for pitches in a particular location and do significant damage with those pitches. The problem? He did the least amount of damage he ever had.
Reddick had a barrel % of 4.8%, which was 1.4% better than 2019. Unfortunately, 4.8% still isn't very good, as it's only in the 24th percentile of MLB. To be clear, you can still be a good hitter with that low of a barrel %, but it's tough to barrel the ball that inconsistently while striking out 20% of the time.
Relying solely on broadcast video, it's tough to see if Reddick had a swing path change. It's likely that if there were more publicly available data (through things like Blast Motion, Trackman, Rapsodo) that his swing path would be working a little more uphill in 2020.
Similar to Brantley, there're signs of aging with Reddick as well. His 17.4% whiff % against fastballs was the worst it's been since 2012, and it was 6% worse than in 2019. Reddick's .263 AVG against fastballs was .046 worse than it was last year, and his .254 xBA against fastballs was the worst it's been in the Statcast era (2015-present day).
It's a similar story with his slugging statistics. While Reddick's .430 SLG against fastballs was actually the best it's been since 2017, remember he made an approach change with doing more damage on these pitches in mind. However, the numbers suggest he got lucky, as his .382 xSLG is the worst it's been in the Statcast era.
The story continues away from the plate as well. In 2017, Reddick had an average sprint speed of 27.8 ft/s, ran a 4.20 from home-to-first, and was ranked in the 71st percentile in MLB in sprint speed. Now, Reddick has an average sprint speed of 26.2 ft/s, ran a 4.47 from home-to-first, and ranked in the 34th percentile in MLB in sprint speed.
Reddick has even declined defensively, which is where he provided the most value anyways when he first signed with the Astros. In 2017, Reddick had a UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) of 2.1, a DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) of 8, and an OAA (Outs Above Average, which is essentially an indicator of range) of 4. He was even better in that particular category in 2018, when he had 8.
In 2020, while it was a shortened season with less defensive opportunities, he had a UZR of -7.8, a DRS of -3, and an OAA of -5. His average jump on the baseball was 2.7 feet below average.
All-in-all, it tells the story of a player who is past his prime and is clearly on the downturn of his career. He certainly is not a starting outfielder on a contending team. The book on his Astros career isn't completely closed, as they could bring him back for cheap if they lose both Springer and Brantley and aren't intrigued with any other free agent options. Otherwise, Reddick will likely be heading to a rebuilding team in need of a veteran presence while he chases that 10th year of service time.
This is part three of an offseason series. You can also read part one on George Springer and part two on Michael Brantley.
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.