JOSH REDDICK DEEP DIVE
Examining Josh Reddick's value to the Astros moving forward
Oct 21, 2020, 11:26 am
Reddick has made some big plays with his glove. Photo by Harry How/Getty Images
Josh Reddick signed a 4-year, $52M contract with the Houston Astros prior to the 2017 offseason. At the time, it was the biggest free agent commitment that Jeff Luhnow had ever made. Believe it or not, it is actually the largest free agent guarantee that Luhnow ever made as GM. Michael Brantley and Carlos Beltran garnered higher AAV's than Reddick, but they were shorter term deals with $16M and $30M in overall payout. Other large contracts on the Astros, like Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, and Jose Altuve, were either acquired via trade or done as extensions.
Four years down the road, Reddick faces free agency again. Reddick has just over nine years of service time, which means he'll undoubtedly seek a contract somewhere in 2021 to accrue 10 years of service time and pick up the benefits that come with that distinction. Reddick clearly isn't in line for a similar deal to what he signed in late 2016 as a player entering his age-30 season, but is there value left in the tank?
Hard Hit % - 29.3%
Barrel % - 4.8%
K % - 20%
BB % - 9.5%
Chase % - 25.7%
Judging off of the numbers, it seems Reddick had a change in approach at the plate. His 20% K% was an 8% increase from last season. His BB% increased by 3%, his chase % decreased 4%, his swing % decreased 4.6%, and his launch angle increased 3.5°. Aside from BB%, all the numbers referenced were either career highs or lows.
What do those numbers say about his approach? Reddick presumably came into 2020 trying to keyhole for pitches in a particular location and do significant damage with those pitches. The problem? He did the least amount of damage he ever had.
Reddick had a barrel % of 4.8%, which was 1.4% better than 2019. Unfortunately, 4.8% still isn't very good, as it's only in the 24th percentile of MLB. To be clear, you can still be a good hitter with that low of a barrel %, but it's tough to barrel the ball that inconsistently while striking out 20% of the time.
Relying solely on broadcast video, it's tough to see if Reddick had a swing path change. It's likely that if there were more publicly available data (through things like Blast Motion, Trackman, Rapsodo) that his swing path would be working a little more uphill in 2020.
Similar to Brantley, there're signs of aging with Reddick as well. His 17.4% whiff % against fastballs was the worst it's been since 2012, and it was 6% worse than in 2019. Reddick's .263 AVG against fastballs was .046 worse than it was last year, and his .254 xBA against fastballs was the worst it's been in the Statcast era (2015-present day).
It's a similar story with his slugging statistics. While Reddick's .430 SLG against fastballs was actually the best it's been since 2017, remember he made an approach change with doing more damage on these pitches in mind. However, the numbers suggest he got lucky, as his .382 xSLG is the worst it's been in the Statcast era.
The story continues away from the plate as well. In 2017, Reddick had an average sprint speed of 27.8 ft/s, ran a 4.20 from home-to-first, and was ranked in the 71st percentile in MLB in sprint speed. Now, Reddick has an average sprint speed of 26.2 ft/s, ran a 4.47 from home-to-first, and ranked in the 34th percentile in MLB in sprint speed.
Reddick has even declined defensively, which is where he provided the most value anyways when he first signed with the Astros. In 2017, Reddick had a UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) of 2.1, a DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) of 8, and an OAA (Outs Above Average, which is essentially an indicator of range) of 4. He was even better in that particular category in 2018, when he had 8.
In 2020, while it was a shortened season with less defensive opportunities, he had a UZR of -7.8, a DRS of -3, and an OAA of -5. His average jump on the baseball was 2.7 feet below average.
All-in-all, it tells the story of a player who is past his prime and is clearly on the downturn of his career. He certainly is not a starting outfielder on a contending team. The book on his Astros career isn't completely closed, as they could bring him back for cheap if they lose both Springer and Brantley and aren't intrigued with any other free agent options. Otherwise, Reddick will likely be heading to a rebuilding team in need of a veteran presence while he chases that 10th year of service time.
This is part three of an offseason series. You can also read part one on George Springer and part two on Michael Brantley.
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It’s May 1, and the Astros are turning heads—but not for the reasons anyone expected. Their resurgence, driven not by stars like Yordan Alvarez or Christian Walker, but by a cast of less-heralded names, is writing a strange and telling early-season story.
Christian Walker, brought in to add middle-of-the-order thump, has yet to resemble the feared hitter he was in Arizona. Forget the narrative of a slow starter—he’s never looked like this in April. Through March and April of 2025, he’s slashing a worrying .196/.277/.355 with a .632 OPS. Compare that to the same stretch in 2024, when he posted a .283 average, .496 slug, and a robust .890 OPS, and it becomes clear: this is something more than rust. Even in 2023, his April numbers (.248/.714 OPS) looked steadier.
What’s more troubling than the overall dip is when it’s happening. Walker is faltering in the biggest moments. With runners in scoring position, he’s hitting just .143 over 33 plate appearances, including 15 strikeouts. The struggles get even more glaring with two outs—.125 average, .188 slugging, and a .451 OPS in 19 such plate appearances. In “late and close” situations, when the pressure’s highest, he’s practically disappeared: 1-for-18 with a .056 average and a .167 OPS.
His patience has waned (only 9 walks so far, compared to 20 by this time last year), and for now, his presence in the lineup feels more like a placeholder than a pillar.
The contrast couldn’t be clearer when you look at José Altuve—long the engine of this franchise—who, in 2024, delivered in the moments Walker is now missing. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Altuve hit .275 with an .888 OPS. In late and close situations, he thrived with a .314 average and .854 OPS. That kind of situational excellence is missing from this 2025 squad—but someone else may yet step into that role.
And yet—the Astros are winning. Not because of Walker, but in spite of him.
Houston’s offense, in general, hasn’t lit up the leaderboard. Their team OPS ranks 23rd (.667), their slugging 25th (.357), and they sit just 22nd in runs scored (117). They’re 26th in doubles, a rare place for a team built on gap-to-gap damage.
But where there’s been light, it hasn’t come from the usual spots. Jeremy Peña, often overshadowed in a lineup full of stars, now boasts the team’s highest OPS at .791 (Isaac Paredes is second in OPS) and is flourishing in his new role as the leadoff hitter. Peña’s balance of speed, contact, aggression, and timely power has given Houston a surprising tone-setter at the top.
Even more surprising: four Astros currently have more home runs than Yordan Alvarez.
And then there’s the pitching—Houston’s anchor. The rotation and bullpen have been elite, ranking 5th in ERA (3.23), 1st in WHIP (1.08), and 4th in batting average against (.212). In a season where offense is lagging and clutch hits are rare, the arms have made all the difference.
For now, it’s the unexpected contributors keeping Houston afloat. Peña’s emergence. A rock-solid pitching staff. Role players stepping up in quiet but crucial ways. They’re not dominating, but they’re grinding—and in a sluggish AL West, that may be enough.
Walker still has time to find his swing. He showed some signs of life against Toronto and Detroit. If he does, the Astros could become dangerous. If he doesn’t, the turnaround we’re witnessing will be credited to a new cast of unlikely faces. And maybe, that’s the story that needed to be written.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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