James White should be very active in a high-scoring game against the Texans. New England Patriots/Facebook
It’s finally upon us. Week 1 of fantasy football, and this year is going to be even more difficult to navigate than ever. There’s a lot of uncertainty as we head into the opening week, so I advise everyone to starts there studs. That’s why you spent a high pick on them in the first place. Of course, Le’Veon Bell should be firmly on your bench even if he shows up and is active against the Browns. There’s just no way of knowing how much work he would get. I am going to pick some players I like this week that aren’t odvious starters. Everyone should be starting the David Johnson’s of the world, so I’ll look at some players that aren’t a sure thing.
I’ll be using some of the stats from the end of last season to make my suggestions, and there are clearly some flaws with these numbers. The coaches know what they need to correct in the off-season, so they work to improve their deficiencies, plus, free agency and the draft brings in new players that weren’t on the team last year. Because of this, we have to take last year’s numbers with a grain of salt. Without further ado, here are some plays I like for this weekend.
RB
Derrick Henry (TEN): The Titans have a nice matchup against the Dolphins in Week 1 and Miami gave up the 2nd most points to running backs from week 12 on last season. It’s hard to know how the carries will be split between Henry and Dion Lewis, but we should get our answer on Sunday. Clearly, I like Henry a lot better in non-ppr. He’s not a must-start for me this week, but he should be okay as a No. 2 RB.
James White (NE): The Texans had quite a bit of trouble stopping the run last year. From week 12 on, they gave up the 3rd most fantasy points to RBs. The good news for Houston is they have a lot of players back from injury on defense, but the Texans typically give up points to the running back position. It usually comes from TDs, especially in the years that the Texans had a dominant defense. Look for James White to have a nice game out of the backfield on Sunday. Brady doesn’t have Edelman for the first four weeks, so I believe White will get an uptick in targets. A wheel route TD from White would not surprise me at all.
James Conner (PIT): I think Conner will have a nice game against the Browns this week. DeAngelo Williams produced at a high level when Bell has been out in the past, and I think Connor will follow suit. I know there’s a lot of hype around Cleveland, but I’m not buying in. Conner is a must-start until Bell decides to show up.
Lamar Miller (HOU): Miller hasn’t exactly looked spectacular, especially running behind the Texans below-average offensive line, but I think sheer volume will get him there for fantasy. There should be a lot of scoring in this game, and Miller can be used as a No. 2 RB on Sunday.
WR
JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT): He has a great matchup against the Browns, and they’ll be looking to limit Antonio Brown. The Steelers should throw the ball quite a bit this week, and Smith-Schuster can capitalize. The Browns gave up 36.5 FPTS/G to WRs from week 12 on last year, and I think Smith-Schuster will get his fair share of those points.
Chris Hogan (NE): I love Hogan this year and especially Week 1 against the Texans. I think he may have Johnathan Joseph on him, and that’s good news for Hogan owners. Houston’s corners typically have trouble dealing with bigger receivers, and Hogan comes in at 6′ 1”. He also has pretty good speed being a 4.5 forty guy, and the Texans’ corners aren’t all that fast. I think Gronk will see plenty of attention, and that opens things up for Hogan and James White.
Jamison Crowder (WAS): I think Crowder has a nice opportunity to catch some passes this week against the Arizona Cardinals. Alex Smith may have pushed the ball down the field more last year, but he’s been “Captain Checkdown” for most of his career. Look for Crowder to catch a lot of balls out of the slot with Patrick Peterson covering the outside receivers primarily.
TE
Eric Ebron (IND): I’m hearing some good things about Ebron in the Colts offense, and Luck’s arm strength hasn’t been all that impressive in the preseason. Ebron played well against the Bengals last year (83-yds, 1TD), and I think that continues this week. He’ll see his fair share of checkdown passes from Andrew Luck.
Jordan Reed (WAS): He’s healthy, at least for the time being. I like him for the same reason I like Crowder this week, so I think he’s worth a shot. Use him before he dies.
That’s all I have for this week. For more fantasy info, make sure you check out my show Moneyline on ESPN 97.5 every Sunday from 10-noon. Jerry Bo and I will get you ready for kickoff and answer any questions you may have. Also, follow us on Twitter. Good luck Week 1!
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How these 3 critical factors could swing battle between Texans and Jets
Oct 30, 2024, 3:06 pm
The Jets host the Texans and their scary defense on Halloween night! Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images.
Houston (6-2) at New York Jets (2-6)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT, Amazon Prime
BetMGM NFL odds: Jets by 2.
Against the spread: Texans 3-4-1; Jets 2-6.
Series record: Jets lead 7-3.
Last meeting: Jets beat Texans 30-6 in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on Dec. 10, 2023.
Last week: Texans beat Colts 23-20; Jets lost to Patriots 25-22.
Texans offense: overall (9t), rush (18), pass (8), scoring (14).
Texans defense: overall (2), rush (13), pass (3), scoring (15t).
Jets offense: overall (24), rush (30), pass (13), scoring (25).
Jets defense: overall (4), rush (17), pass (2), scoring (11t).
Turnover differential: Texans plus-4; Jets minus-3.
Texans player to watch
RB Joe Mixon. He has carried Houston's offense in the three games since he returned from an injury and could be even more important this week after wide receiver Stefon Diggs tore the ACL in his right knee last Sunday and is out for the season. Mixon ranks third in the NFL by averaging 100.6 yards rushing a game and has had at least 100 yards rushing and a TD run in three straight games.
Jets player to watch
Edge rusher Haason Reddick. After ending his lengthy contract holdout early last week, Reddick made his Jets debut and played 26 snaps on defense with two quarterback pressures while working mostly on third downs. His snaps might increase a bit Thursday and he could help the Jets get after C.J. Stroud, who has been sacked 22 times this season — tied for third most in the NFL.
Key matchup
Jets offensive line vs. Texans' pass rush. New York has had issues this season with injuries, consistency and protecting Aaron Rodgers. The Jets will face a tough test Thursday night against the Texans, whose 27 sacks are third in the NFL. DE Will Anderson Jr. is tied for third in the league with a career-high 7 1/2 sacks, including at least one in his past three games. DE Danielle Hunter has 5 1/2 sacks and DT Tim Settle has four, powering a formidable defensive front for Houston. Hunter leads the league with 51 quarterback pressures and Anderson is fourth with 39, the only teammates in the top 15, according to Next Gen Stats.
Key injuries
Diggs' injury leaves Houston without its top two receivers. Nico Collins, who leads the Texans with 567 yards receiving, is out for at least one more game after being placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. ... S Calen Bullock was limited in practice Monday and Tuesday after injuring his shoulder Sunday. … LBs Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) and Henry To’oTo’o (concussion) both missed the Colts game, but could return this week. … S Jimmie Ward could miss a fifth straight game with a groin injury. … LG Jarrett Patterson is in the concussion protocol and is likely out. … RB Dameon Pierce missed practice this week with a groin injury. ... Jets LB C.J. Mosley suffered a stinger in his neck during pregame warmups at New England and was meeting with neck and spine specialists this week. ... RG Alijah Vera-Tucker (ankle), WR Allen Lazard (chest), DL Leki Fotu (knee) and safeties Tony Adams (hamstring) and Ashtyn Davis (concussion) all missed the game vs. the Patriots and their availability for this week was uncertain. ... K Greg Zuerlein was placed on IR. Riley Patterson and Spencer Shrader were signed to the practice squad, and one will be promoted for the game.
Series notes
The Jets have won the past two meetings. ... New York won the first five meetings, including the first game between the franchises in 2003, when LaMont Jordan's late 8-yard touchdown run helped lift the Jets to a 19-14 victory. ... Zach Wilson threw two touchdown passes in the most recent meeting, a 30-6 rout by New York during which Stroud left with a concussion.
Stats and stuff
The AFC South-leading Texans have won four of their past five. ... Stroud is 2-0 with three touchdowns and zero interceptions in two career starts in prime time. He had 285 yards passing last week for his ninth career game with at least that many yards passing, which is tied for second most in the NFL since 2023. ... WR Tank Dell had a touchdown reception last week and has a TD catch in two of his past three games. ... TE Dalton Schultz had a season-high 52 yards receiving against the Colts. He has two TD receptions in each of his past two Thursday night games. ... Hunter has 10½ sacks in eight career Thursday night games. … LB Neville Hewitt, who spent the 2018-21 seasons with the Jets, forced a fumble last week. … Rookie CB Kamari Lassiter had a career-high three passes defended last week. … S Jalen Pitre had his first interception of the season last week. ... S Eric Murray had seven tackles and a season-high three passes defended last week. ... New York is trying to snap a five-game skid. ... Jeff Ulbrich is 0-3 as the Jets’ interim head coach since replacing the fired Robert Saleh on Oct. 8. Ulbrich, also the team's defensive coordinator, said earlier this week he'll continue to call plays on defense. … Rodgers snapped a streak of three consecutive games with an interception. He has seven in eight games, six shy of his single-season career high set in 2008 in his first year as Green Bay’s starting quarterback. ... Rodgers hasn't passed for 300 yards since throwing for 341 against Chicago on Dec. 12, 2021 — a span of 30 regular-season games and 31 overall, including one playoff game. ... WR Garrett Wilson leads the NFL with 84 targets, 11 more than the Giants’ Malik Nabers. Wilson’s 51 receptions are second in the league behind Las Vegas’ Brock Bowers, who has 52. ... WR Davante Adams had four catches for 54 yards, giving him seven receptions for 84 yards in two games since being acquired from the Raiders. ... Second-year WR Xavier Gipson caught his first career TD pass last Sunday. ... TE Tyler Conklin has a TD catch in consecutive games after not having one since catching two TD passes in Week 8 of the 2022 season against New England. ... RB Breece Hall has 316 yards receiving, the most among NFL running backs. ... Edge rusher Will McDonald has eight sacks, second in the NFL to the Giants’ Dexter Lawrence (nine). … The Jets have only six takeaways, ranking among the fewest in the league. Backup CB Brandin Echols has New York's only two interceptions.
Fantasy tip
Houston wide receiver John Metchie is coming off a career-best three-catch game and could see more targets — and perhaps his first NFL touchdown — with both Diggs and Collins out. Might be worth a stash as a potential WR3.
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