Josh Jordan
Fantasy football under-the-radar plays — Week 14 (Playoffs)
Dec 6, 2018, 10:37 am
It's the first game of the playoffs for most fantasy leagues, so I’m back to give out more sleeper plays. My standard for a good fantasy game is around 100 total yards and/or a TD, and this is for PPR scoring. A game with a lot of catches helps too, obviously. Of course, the bar is a little lower for TEs.
I followed up an 8-4 week by going 5-7 (barf), and you can check out that article here. Hopefully, I can bounce back this week with playoff games on the line. With it being the playoffs I added a lot more players to my article. I hope it helps. My plays are below and these players are in no particular order.
Baker Mayfield (CLE): The Panthers have given up 14 TD passes over their last 5 games, so you’ll want to get Mayfield in your lineup.
Marcus Mariota (TEN): He has a tasty matchup against the Jags on Thursday night, and the Titans need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. Plus, he’s been good the last couple weeks.
Aaron Rodgers (GB): Don’t give up on him. It’s crazy that I am putting him in this article, but he hasn’t been his usual self all year. I expect him to have a big game in a shootout with the Falcons on Sunday.
Mitchell Trubisky (CHI): The Rams get crushed by QBs, and Trusbisky should return this week from his shoulder injury. The Rams are allowing over 32 FPTS/G over the last month.
Dalvin Cook (MIN): Seattle has given up over 32 FPTS/G to RBs over their last 5 games, and Cook is really starting to come on. Look for him to make a big impact in the passing game with the Seahawks giving up the most catches (36) to running backs over their last 5.
Aaron Jones (GB): Jones hasn’t exactly been lighting it up from a rushing standpoint in his last 3 games. He rushed for 40, 72, and 36 yards in his last 3 performances, but his work in the passing game and his ability to score are very encouraging. Make sure you start him this week against the Falcons who are allowing over 30 FPTS/G to RBs in their last 5 games. And I think Rodgers is going to make a statement this week.
LeGarrette Blount (DET): If Kerryon Johnson is out again (which is likely), Blount could help win a playoff game for fantasy owners. The Cardinals have allowed 5 rushing TDs in their last 4 games, and are allowing over 30 FPTS/G to the position over the last month. Make sure Johnson is out before starting Blount.
Mark Ingram (NO): I think the Saints ground game gets back on track this week and the matchup is pretty sweet against the Bucs. They are giving up over 6 yards per carry in their last 4 games, so they can be had on the ground.
Tarik Cohen (CHI): You’re probably starting him every week, but just in case you’re on the fence, I put him in this article. The Rams have allowed 6 TDs to RBs in their last 4 games.
Amari Cooper (DAL): He's been terrific and this week he gets the Eagles. START HIM.
Allen Robinson (CHI): The Rams are allowing over 42 FPTS/G to WRs in their last 4 games and he gets his QB back...hopefully.
Zay Jones (BUF): Are you feeling dangerous? If you’re thinking about starting Jones in the playoffs, you have to be feeling that way. Look, playing Jones comes with a lot of downside, obviously, he plays receiver for the Bills. If you’re stuck and need a receiver this week, you could do worse. He has 3 TDs in his last 3 games. He also scored zero points in one of those games, so keep that in mind. But his matchup is good and his QB has a cannon for an arm.
Josh Reynolds (LAR): The Bears are actually a good matchup for receivers over the last month allowing over 40 FPTS/G to the position. Cooks and Woods should garner the most attention which should provide opportunities for Reynolds.
Adam Humphries (TB): The Saints have allowed 75 catches to WRs in their last 5 games, so he certainly has a chance and he’s been money the last couple of weeks.
TY Hilton (IND): He's been really good against the Texans over his career, so start him if you need him. You're probably starting him anyway.
Austin Hooper (ATL): The matchup is not great against the Packers, but Hooper has become a bigger part of the offense and Julio’s injury may increase his usage.
Cameron Brate (TB): Brate makes this article almost every week and that’s because they use him in the red zone so much. If you’re considering Brate this week, you’re fairly desperate. Start him and hope he catches a TD.
Trey Burton (CHI): The Rams give up over 18 FPTS/G to TEs over their last 4, so this is the week to use him.
Jimmy Graham (GB): He finally had a good game last week catching 8 balls, and I think Rodgers gets him involved again.
That’s all I have for this week. For more fantasy info, make sure you check out my show Moneyline on ESPN 97.5 every Sunday from 10-noon. Jerry Bo and I will get you ready for kickoff and answer any questions you may have. Also, follow us on Twitter.
Good luck in Week 14!
The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
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