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NASCAR: 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 preview, predictions

NASCAR: 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 preview, predictions
The playoffs continue on Saturday. Photo via: Wiki Commons.

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to the Commonwealth of Virginia this week for the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway. This race is number two of three in the first round of the playoffs as each of the 16 drivers look to extend their season. This track is probably the tamest of the three in this round, so it will be important to get a good finish here before one of the wildcard races at Bristol next week. Richmond is a track that usually features a lot of side-by-side racing and long green flag runs, as there were only two cautions for accidents in the spring. Look for many crew chiefs to use pit strategy to play a role in the results.

Last week, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson battled it out all the way to the final corner in one of the best finishes of the season. On the last lap of the race, Kyle Larson decided to go full-throttle all the way in turn four and ride the wall in a last-ditch effort to pass Hamlin, but to no avail as Hamlin picked up his first win of 2021.

While Larson and Hamlin came out pretty well, the same couldn't be said for most of the playoff field, ten drivers were involved in accidents including Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, and Alex Bowman. It was Kyle who got himself into trouble though. In stage one, Busch moved down on Austin Dillon and crashed in turn two. It wasn't until after he got to pit lane where the real trouble began. Entering the garage area, Busch plowed through most of the orange cones at the entrance and nearly ran over multiple crew members. Because of this, Kyle was fined $50,000. Many thought the penalty was not nearly as severe as it should have been, some even called for a suspension which would have crippled his championship chances. While I agree that the move was incredibly stupid and some sort of action was needed, I believe a suspension would have been too harsh.

On the other side of the Busch gene pool, Kyle's brother Kurt had an excellent showing after coming home sixth. This team continues to quietly impress as he scored 44 points by finishing in the top ten in both stages. He is becoming quite the dark horse to really do some damage and make it out of the first round. Kurt will be one to watch, come Saturday.

There were headlines aplenty off the track as rumors are now swirling that two new tracks will be added to the 2022 schedule, one of those tracks being World Wide Technology Raceway in St. Louis, a short track staple among the Midwest. This was certainly a big announcement, but what really grabbed most people's attention was the possibility of a Cup Series race at the LA Coliseum! The race would take the place of the Clash at Daytona as the cars will run a short-track configuration. This will be quite the experiment as this hasn't happened since the 1950s when they raced at Solider Field. If they make this work, it will be a marvel of engineering. I look forward to hearing more about this in the coming months.

For now the focus remains at Richmond Raceway and the favorite to win this week has to be Kyle Larson. After last week's performance, he will be starting from the pole come Saturday and this is a track he's fast at as he's led 129 laps over the past three races here. Despite all the speed he's had at Richmond, he still has yet to score a victory there, but I have a feeling that could all change this week. Look for Larson to punch his ticket to the next round with a victory this weekend.

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The Rockets are in it to win it this year. Composite Getty Image.

While the rolling Astros have a week of possible World Series preview matchups against the Phillies and Cubs, it’s the Rockets who made the biggest local sports headline with their acquisition of Kevin Durant. What a move! Of course there is risk involved in trading for a guy soon to turn 37 years old and who carries an injury history, but balancing risk vs. reward is a part of the game. This is a fabulous move for the Rockets. It’s understood that there are dissenters to this view. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, including people with the wrong opinion! Let’s dig in.

The Rockets had a wonderful season in winning 52 games before their disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Warriors, but like everyone else in the Western Conference, they were nowhere close to Oklahoma City’s caliber. While they finished second in the West, the Rockets only finished four games ahead of the play-in. That letting the stew simmer with further growth among their young players would yield true championship contention was no given for 2025-26 or beyond.

Kevin Durant is one of the 10 greatest offensive players the NBA has ever seen. Among his current contemporaries only Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic make that list. For instance, Durant offensively has clearly been better than the late and legendary Kobe Bryant. To view it from a Houston perspective, Durant has been an indisputably greater offensive force than the amazing Hakeem Olajuwon. But this is not a nostalgia trip in which the Rockets are trading for a guy based on what he used to be. While Durant could hit the wall at any point, living in fear that it’s about to happen is no way to live because KD, approaching his 18th NBA season, is still an elite offensive player.

As to the durability concern, Durant played more games (62) this past season than did Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason. The season before he played more games (75) than did VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Alperen Sengun. In each of the last two seasons Durant averaged more minutes per game (36.9) than any Rocket. That was stupid and/or desperate of the Suns, the Rockets will be smarter. Not that the workload eroded Durant’s production or efficiency. Over the two seasons he averaged almost 27 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor, 42 percent from behind the three-point line, and 85 percent from the free throw line. Awesomeness. The Rockets made the leap to being a very good team despite a frankly crummy half-court offense. The Rockets ranked 21st among the 30 NBA teams in three-point percentage, and dead last in free throw percentage. Amen Thompson has an array of skills and looks poised to be a unique star. Alas, Thompson has no credible jump shot. VanVleet is not a creator, Smith has limited handle. Adding Durant directly addresses the Rockets’ most glaring weakness.

The price the Rockets paid was in the big picture, minimal, unless you think Jalen Green is going to become a bonafide star. Green is still just 23 years old and spectacular athletically, but nothing he has done over four pro seasons suggests he’s on the cusp of greatness. In no season has Green even shot the league average from the floor or from three. His defense has never been as good as it should be given his athleticism. Compared to some other two-guards who made the NBA move one year removed from high school, four seasons into his career Green is waaaaaay behind where Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Devin Booker were four seasons in, and now well behind his draft classmate Cade Cunningham. Dillon Brooks was a solid pro in two seasons here and shot a career-best from three in 2024-2025, but he’s being replaced by Kevin Durant! In terms of the draft pick capital sent to Phoenix, five second round picks are essentially meaningless. The Rockets have multiple extra first round picks in the coming years. As for the sole first-rounder dealt away, whichever player the Rockets would have taken 10th Wednesday night would have been rather unlikely to crack the playing rotation.

VanVleet signs extension

Re-signing Fred VanVleet to a two-year, 50 million dollar guarantee is sensible. In a vacuum, VanVleet was substantially overpaid at the over 40 mil he made per season the last two. He’s a middle-of-the-pack starting point guard. But his professionalism and headiness brought major value to the Rockets’ kiddie corps while their payroll was otherwise very low. Ideally, Reed Sheppard makes a leap to look like an NBA lead guard in his second season, after a pretty much zippo of a rookie campaign. Sheppard is supposed to be a lights-out shooter. For the Rockets to max out, they need two sharpshooters on the court to balance Thompson’s presence.

For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!

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