Size matters in boxing

Fighting Spence a brave but foolish move by Garcia

Errol Spence and Mikey Garcia fight for the IBF welterweight title Saturday in Dallas on pay-per-view. (Photo courtesy of the Dallas Cowboys.)

Mikey Garcia will dare to be great on Saturday night when he moves up two weight classes from his natural division to challenge Errol Spence for the International Boxing Federation welterweight championship of the world. It's a throwback move by Garcia, who is a natural 135 pounder, as he steps in the ring against a much bigger man. The question on everyone's mind is simple: does Garcia have a chance to win? Unfortunately the answer is no, not really.

Garcia is many things as a fighter. He's a four division champion, having won titles at feathweight, super featherweight, lightweight and junior welterweight. He's undefeated, amassing a record of 39-0 with 30 knockouts. He's a pound-for-pound fighter, being ranked as high as fifth on most major publications' list of the greatest active boxers regardless of weight class. However it isn't what Garcia is that will make the fight on saturday night; it's what he's not. Garcia is not a welterweight.

That isn't to say that there aren't welterweights Garcia could beat; there certainly are. Could Mikey move up to 147 pounds and beat Danny Garcia, who is on the tail end of a successful career? Perhaps. Could he beat a gatekeeper like Jessie Vargas, who has passed the test against every B-level fighter but looked average against the likes of Manny Pacquiao and Adrien Broner? Of course. But this is Errol Spence we're talking about here.

Spence is the best natural 147 pound fighter in the world. At 29 years old he's younger than Garcia. As a natural welterweight who will ultimately move to junior middleweight he's bigger than Garcia. At 5'9-½" he's nearly four inches taller than Garcia. And with a record of 24-0 with 21 knockouts he hits harder than Garcia. Mikey Garcia is an accomplished fighter, but he's never fought anyone at Errol Spence's level. Not even close.

Garcia has fought twice at 140 pounds, and has looked less than inspiring both times. In 2017 he beat Adrian Broner via unanimous decision to claim the WBC junior welterweight title. But despite easily outpointing Broner, he never appeared to hurt him or stagger him. Last year Garcia fought Sergey Lipinets and again won a relatively wide decision without showing any signs of fight-changing power. So if Garcia can't carry his power to 140 pounds, how is it going to look at 147?

In 2016 welterweight Amir Khan dared to be great, moving up two weight classes to fight Canelo Alvarez at 160 pounds. Khan looked more than capable of competing with Alvarez until the sixth round. In round six Alvarez landed his first big punch of the fight. The right hand sent the smaller Khan to the canvas like a rag doll, knocking him out cold. The huge knockout derailed Khan's career, spending nearly two years recovering before returning in April of 2018.

A few months later welterweight titlist Kell Brook also dared to be great, jumping up two weight classes to fight Gennady Golovkin at middleweight. Brook gave it his best effort, but was knocked out in the fifth round after the bigger, stronger Golovkin unleashed a barrage of punches that ultimately fractured Brook's eye socket. Brook has never been the same as a fighter since the loss to Golovkin.

Mikey Garcia will bring his technical style to the ring to AT&T Stadium on Saturday night in Arlington. He'll work behind his jab and look for holes in Errol Spence's strategy. He aims to shock the world by dethroning the boogeyman at 147 pounds. But it's far more likely that Garcia ends up like Khan and Brook, the smaller men that have gone before him. This is boxing; and we have weight classes for a reason.

TIM'S PICK

Spence by 7th round knockout

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Jose Altuve is crushing the baseball. Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images.

The Astros and White Sox playing through the weekend at Minute Maid Park is their most interesting series since the 2005 World Series the ChiSox won in a sweep. Both are clear 2021 World Series contenders. We already know the Astros won't get swept four straight this time as their mashfest at the plate continued in Thursday's 10-2 coast of a series starting victory. So far in June the Astros are a spiffy 11-4. And have lost ground to American League West leading Oakland. The A's are 12-2 this month and take a two game division lead into the weekend.

The Astro offense is humming and then some, leading Major League Baseball in runs scored per game, batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. The runs per game gap between the Astros and second-best Los Angeles Dodgers is larger than the gap from the Dodgers to 10th best. The Astros have hit at least two dingers in their last 10 games. That ties the MLB record set two years ago by an atrocious Orioles' squad that finished 54-108.

Jose Altuve's days of being a .340 hitter are almost certainly finished, and he has a paltry six doubles so far this season. But it's not like a .298 batting average is feeble, and with his home run surge at eight homers in his last 10 games Altuve is now on pace to hit 38 homers this season. 38! His career high of 31 was set two seasons ago. The single season record for a second baseman is 43, hit by Davey Johnson in 1973.

Michel Brantley is a .340 hitter this season. .342 to be exact going into Friday night. Since coming off the injured list he is hitting a mere .532 with 17 hits in 32 at bats. He's been a doubles machine though with diminished home run power. So naturally Brantley belted a three run shot in his first at bat Thursday, snapping a drought of 99 homerless ABs.

Losing Alex Bregman to a quad muscle pull for likely multiple weeks is a blow but if it had to happen this isn't the worst of times for it. Bregman is 0 for his last 19, and over his last 18 games hit just .174. In his first game replacing Bregman Abraham Toro homered and knocked in four.

While the offense can be overpowering it certainly isn't carrying the team. Over the last 18 games Astros' starting pitchers have a 2.38 earned run average.

Rockets looking to win the lottery

The NBA Draft lottery is Tuesday night. Hakeem Olajuwon will represent the Rockets on the freaks and geeks stage of non-playoff teams. The moment of truth for the Rockets is when the fifth pick envelope is opened. If it's a Rockets card it's a horrible blow to the pace of rebuilding efforts because the Rockets would lose the pick to Oklahoma City and in exchange get the 18th pick from Miami. When "The Athletic" asked General Manager Rafael Stone if dropping from top four to 18 would be a set back to the Rockets' rebuild, he absurdly said "not really." Either Stone was spinning in a spirit of optimism, or the Rockets have a not very smart guy as GM. He gets the benefit of the doubt toward the former. The Rockets have a 52.1 percent chance of keeping their pick.

The NBA coaching carousel is spinning hard. Seven vacancies, with another one or two possible. Rick Carlisle's sudden resignation in Dallas makes the Mavericks' opening the clearly best available gig. The Mavs have 22 year old superstar Luka Doncic and that's that. The Mavericks haven't won a playoff series since winning the NBA title back in 2011.

Doc Rivers's coaching job is presumably safe in Philadelphia but after blowing a 26 point lead at home to go down three games to two in their series vs. Atlanta, if the 76ers are taken out Doc adds to the worst gag job resume of any coach in NBA history. Three times Rivers has coached a team that blew a 3-1 series lead and lost in seven. No other coach has twice lost a series after leading 3-1. The Rockets did it to Rivers's Clippers in 2015. The Nuggets did it to Doc last year ending his tenure with the Clippers. Back in 2003 Doc was coaching Tracy McGrady and Orlando when the Detroit Pistons rallied from three games to one down and make the Magic disappear.

Buzzer Beaters:

1. Rather cool and coincidental that the giveaway at Sunday's Astros-White Sox game is a Father's Day Carlos Correa jersey. Carlos and wife Daniella announced this week that they are expecting their first child.

2. If the Hawks eliminate the 76ers Clint Capela would be entitled to a hearty chuckle at Daryl Morey's expense.

3. With apologies to Starburst, Best fruit candies: Bronze-Chuckles Silver-Skittles Gold-Fruit Slices

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