THE AFC SOUTH REPORT
Foles injury proves costly as AFC South gets off to mixed start
Sep 9, 2019, 5:32 am
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Nick Foles.
A look at how Week 1 shaped up for the AFC South:
1.) Chargers 30 Colts 24
Jacoby Brissett is exactly what I thought he would be in his first game starting for the Colts. Nothing special, will not be asked to do too much, and it will be a wait and see situation as we go along in the season. Even though they lose the first game of the season to the Chargers, there were a few positive signs. First and foremost there was not a drop in production from TY Hilton. He had 8 catches for 87 yards and 2 touchdowns. This was by far the most important thing to watch as a Texans fan from this game because TY has given the Texans fits over the past few years. My second and biggest observation is the running game looks very legitimate. Marlon Mack followed up his impressive year last season with a strong first game, piling up 174 yards on the ground on 25 carries. While they definitely do take a drop-offwithout Andrew Luck this season, I think there are a lot of things to be scared of about this team as a Texans fan.As for the Chargers, this is a very solid win to start the season. Offensively this team is a machine at times and I still thin that Phillip Rivers is one of the top 10 quarterbacks in the league. They will be a very serious threat in the AFC this season.
2.) Chiefs 40 at Jaguars 26
I came into this season questioning who would be the second biggest threat to the Texans this season. Would it be the Colts or the Jaguars? Jacksonville finally has a quality quarterback who has shown consistency over the course of his career and has also proven to be a very clutch quarterback when it matters. The Nick Foles injury stinks for Jags fans. It just sucks. There's no other way to put it because the defense is back and healthy and there were high hopes that this team could get back to where they were two years ago. This is a big win for Texans fans, but it still stinks whenever a player gets hurt. If anybody was wondering if the Chiefs would take a step back after a masterful first year from Patrick Mahomes, those doubts should be tossed aside. This team is great and Mahomes is going to be something special to watch for years to come. My big key to watch in this game would be if the Jaguars front seven could fluster Mahomes. The answer was no, and Mahomes had just eight incomplete passes on the day. LeSean McCoy looks to be an excellent addition to the team, and it makes sense as he has played for Andy Reid when he was with the Eagles.
3.) Titans 43 at Browns 13
Tennessee I gave no shot to win the AFC South this year. I will not overreact to Sunday's win over the Browns, but there certainly were plenty of positive signs to look at if you are a Titans fan. Any time you put up 43 points that is something everybody is going to look at. With a new offensive coordinator, Marcus Mariotta looked more comfortable in play design and statistically he fired three touchdown passes, which is a category he had been lacking in for his entire career. My biggest problem with Tennesse is their lack of weapons and playmakers. Did Derrick Henry pile up a good chunk of rushing yards (84 plus a touchdown), Yes. But will we see this kind of effort from this team on a game to game basis? That is still left to be determined, and I am a doubter. I think the bigger story from this game is Cleveland. Under a new head coach (whom many people believed to be underqualified for the job to begin with) this team committed 15 penalties. Baker Mayfield threw three interceptions as well. The lesson to be learned from this game is let's pump the breaks on what we think we know. Tennesse may be better than we thought initially and the Browns may not be Super Bowl contenders or even playoff ready at this very moment. On paper this team is solid and flashy, but it takes a working system for success to occur.
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So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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