TAKE ME OUT TO THE BALL GAME
For all of the Astros uncertainties, you are their biggest of all
Mar 16, 2021, 2:06 pm
The Astros will make the ballpark as safe as possible. Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images.
Make no mistake, the Astros are a real threat to win another pennant
In two weeks the Houston Astros will start their 2021 journey filled with more questions and answers than Champions Week on Jeopardy. And not just on the field, where manager Dusty Baker is still deciding who'll bat leadoff and where and how often Yordan Alvarez fits into the lineup.
The biggest open-ended uncertainty is a returning problem from 2020 – how will COVID-19 affect the baseball season and fan experience?
The Astros will start the season with about 25-percent occupancy in Minute Maid Park, subject to hopefully increase as vaccinations rise and hospitalizations drop during their 14 home games in April.
But will fans want to return to the ol' ballpark? Baseball hasn't exactly been a growth industry in recent years, with league attendance and TV ratings in slow, steady, measurable decline. MLB attendance in 2007 was 79 million. Attendance in 2019 (the last full schedule) was 68 million.
More fans attended baseball games in person two decades ago than in 2019. World Series TV ratings peaked in 1978 when the games averaged 44 million viewers. Last year's World Series, including major market Los Angeles Dodgers, had the lowest audience ever, averaging only 9.7 million viewers.
Four of the five least-viewed World Series have been in the past decade. The five most-watched Series were pre-1985.
The troubling COVID infection rate in Houston may have an impact on Astros attendance, especially in April and May as Pfizer and Moderna are bigger draws than Altuve and Correa.
The Astros will make the ballpark as safe and inviting as possible, with social distance seating upon request and hand sanitizing stations everywhere. MLB protocol mandates that fans must wear a mask except when "actively eating and drinking." Do not be an anti-mask Karen. You won't get away with nursing a Snickers candy bar in your hand for nine innings to avoid wearing a face covering. Minute Maid Park is not a public building. The Astros are the boss of you there.
"We will have masks available to fans as they enter the building if they do not have one. We are counting on our fans to be respectful of the rule and of each other," said Anita Sehgal, senior vice-president of marketing and communications for the Astros.
"We will have signage, announcements and staff monitoring with reminders. As per MLB protocols, we reserve the right to request a fan to leave if they are not adhering to the policy."
Remember the woman who refused to wear a mask in that bank in Galveston last week and challenged police, "What are you going to do, arrest me?" Done. There's a warrant out for her arrest. You don't want to embarrass yourself and your buddies by doing the walk of shame out of Minute Maid Park. You'll end up on YouTube. Simple rule: be a good fan. Wear a mask.
My prediction/solution: special seating sections for fans who are fully vaccinated. Do I have to come up with every good idea around here?
Apples to apples … or baseballs to basketballs: the Houston Rockets are operating with limited capacity at Toyota Center and still have trouble drawing fans. Much like the Rockets themselves, ticket prices on StubHub and other secondary market sites have hit rock bottom.
While you can chalk up the deep discounts to the Rockets' frustrating losing streak, the team was offering sale prices even when they had superstar James Harden and a winning record earlier this season.
It will be interesting to watch fan reaction when the Astros hit the road this season. The Astros were spared, let's say polite, commentary from fans in Yankee Stadium last year because of the shortened schedule. The Astros will visit The Bronx on May 4-5-6. Suggestions to Astros outfielders, wear profanity-canceling headphones. Full body armor might be a good idea, too. Boisterous Yankees fans don't adhere to the playground "no mothers" rule when hurling insults at opposing players.
The Astros might not receive tender bon mots from fans in Dodger Stadium on Aug. 3-4, either.
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So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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