TWIN INSPIRED
Fred Faour: 8 tips and trends for this year's Kentucky Derby
May 3, 2018, 6:00 am
Justify will be trying to buck history at Churchill Downs. Andy Lyons/Getty Images
Here are some key trends and betting notes for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs (numbers compiled from several web sites including drf.com, oddshark.com and horseracingnation.com). If you want detailed breakdowns of every horse, you can find them here.
Chalk talk
Five straight favorites have won the Derby. The previous high was four in a row from 1972-75. There were no favorites winning the race from 1980-2000.
So why the change? This will be the sixth year of the points system, where races have weighted point values and the top 20 in points get in the race. This has eliminated cheap speed horses. During this five-favorite run, every winner has had at least 100 accumulated points. This year there are nine such horses: Magnum Moon 150, Good Magic 134, Audible 110, Noble Indy 110, Vino Rosso 107, Bolt d'Oro, 104, Enticed 103, Mendelssohn 100 and Justify 100.
Even with the five straight favorites, money can be made in the exotics. The last five exacta payoffs are $336, $31, $75, $340 and $982.
Trend setters
No horse that failed to race at age 2 has won the Derby since 1882. SInce then 61 horses have tried it. The two who came closest were Bodemeister (second, 2012) and Battle of Midway (third last year). Two serious contenders in this year’s race fit that profile: Favored Justify and Magnum Moon. Both are unbeaten.
Since 2011, every Derby winner won his final prep race.
Over the last 26 years, there have only been four Kentucky Derby winners whose final prep race was slower than 1:50.00 at nine furlongs. That would eliminate Good Magic and Noble Indy.
Nyquist (2016) and Street Sense (2007) are the only horses to win the BC Juvenile and then the Derby. Good Magic attempts to do it this year.
Long trip
No horse has prepped in Dubai and won the Derby. Mendelssohn won the UAE Derby by 18 lengths and is the only horse to run farther than 1 ⅛ miles. Horses trying this route are 0 for 13.
The Pletcher factor
Trainer Todd Pletcher has four serious contenders this year. Heading into this race he has 48 Derby starters but just two winners, including Always Dreaming last year. The theory is he tries so hard to win preps that his horses peak before the Derby. The exceptions were Super Saver (2010), who was also the last horse to win the Derby without winning his final prep (he was second in the Arkansas Derby but was not pushed that day). Always Dreaming peaked Derby Day and has done nothing since. Pletcher will likely have three of the top five favorites.
Other trainers
Bob Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas each have four Derby winners. Baffert last won the Derby in 2015 with Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. He has favored Justify. Lukas sends out 50-1 shot Bravazo.
Combatant has a shot to hit the board at 50-1
He has only one win in seven tries, but has hit the board in five of those races. Was fourth in debut on the turf, fourth in the Arkansas Derby in a paceless race where he could not close. Probably can’t win but good shot to hit the board at 50-1. He has a similar profile to last year’s Lookin’ at Lee. Got his only win at Churchill, so he has that going for him.
Another wiseguy longshot
Hofburg is 20-1 and has only three career races. He was fourth in his debut as a 2-year-old last September and did not run again until March 3, when he won a maiden race at Gulfstream. He was then thrown to the Wolves and was a good second in the Florida Derby. He should improve, and trainer Bill Mott does not run horses unless he thinks they have a shot.
Beyer beware
The average winning Beyer speed figure for the Derby is 105. Only two horses have topped the 100 mark more than once -- Justify (107, 101, 104) and Bolt D’Oro (102, 101, 103). Both colts accomplished this in California. Are the numbers inflated? There are only two other triple digit Beyers: Good Magic (100 in last year’s BC Juvenile) also run in California. Are the Cali horses better or are the numbers skewered?
Mendelssohn was given a 106 Beyer for his UAE Derby but Beyers are not typically done for overseas races.
When putting together your selections, make sure you pay attention to these trends and use them to your advantage. Good luck!
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The Astros have already been swept in four series this season. They were swept in four series all of last season. As Mexico City says bienvenidos to the Astros this weekend, there are certainly more than a few folks fretting that the Astros are already close to saying adios to playoff hopes. The Astros are not at the point of no return, though one can see it out there on the horizon. It wouldn’t take another month of their garbage level 7-19 performance for the season to be essentially down the drain.
If the Astros were in the American League East, they’d already be ten games out of second place. But they’re not! If in the AL Central they’d be eleven and a half games back of Cleveland. But they’re not! Dozens of teams have rebounded to win divisions from larger deficits much later in the season than the Astros face presently. The Seattle Mariners lead the thus far weak AL West at 13-12. The Astros being six and a half games in arrears of the M’s and six back of the Texas Rangers in late April is far from optimal but nowhere near devastating.
Multiple media outlets have noted how few teams historically have started a season in as stumblebum a fashion as the 2024 Astros and wound up making the playoffs. What every outlet I have seen noting that failed to include: this is just the third season since Major League Baseball added a third Wild Card to each league’s postseason field. So, while 7-19 out of the gate is indisputably awful, it is not the death knell to the extent it has been over generations of MLB.
The issue isn’t where the Astros sit in the standings, it’s that they have played atrocious baseball and aren’t providing reason for optimism that a stark turnaround is imminent. The starting rotation is the best hope. Justin Verlander has made two starts. Framber Valdez rejoins the rotation Sunday. Cristian Javier should be a week or so away. Obviously, Ronel Blanco isn’t going to continue pitching as well as he has through his first four starts. But if he is a good number four starter, that’s fine if the top three coming into the season pitch to reasonably hoped for form.
Hunter Brown simply is not a good big league pitcher. Maybe he someday fulfills his potential, but the data at this point are clear. What can Brown do for you? Not much. Spencer Arrighetti needs better command to be a good big league starter. J.P. France was a revelation over his first 17 starts last season, but since has looked like the guy who posted underwhelming numbers when in the minor leagues. If the Astros wind up with 50-plus starts from Brown/Arrighetti/France their goose will probably be cooked.
The only MLB teams with worse staff earned run averages than the Astros’ horrific 5.07 are the Chicago White Sox (Wait! They have Martin Maldonado!) and Colorado Rockies. At 3-22 the White Sox are on an early pace to post the worst record in the history of Major League Baseball. The Rockies never have a chance to post good pitching stats because of the mile high offensive freak show environment in Denver.
Way to go, Joe
Props to Joe Espada for his conviction in making what he believed to be the right call in pulling Verlander after four and a third innings Thursday at Wrigley Field. Verlander allowed no runs but had reached 95 pitches in just the second outing of the injury-delayed start to his season. Not easy for a rookie manager skippering what has been a Titanic journey thus far to pull a surefire Hall of Famer who was two outs away from qualifying for a win. Many were no doubt poised to destroy Espada had Rafael Montero given up the lead in the fifth. Verlander was angry at being pulled from any chance at his 259th career win. Understood, but the manager’s job is to make the decisions he thinks are in the ballclub’s overall best interest. That Montero and Bryan Abreu combined to blow the lead in the sixth is immaterial.
Then there's the offense…
Six runs total the last four games. Scored more than four runs in just one of the last nine games. Timely hitting largely non-existent.
At last check Alex Bregman still hawks that “Breggy Bomb” salsa. At the plate, he’s been mostly stuck in “Breggy Bum” mode, including zero bombs (home runs). 23 games played without a homer is Bregman’s longest drought since 2017 when he had separate 35 and 27 game stretches between dingers. Bregman has a history of slow first months of the season, but never anything as inept as he’s posted thus far. A litany of lazy fly balls, infield pops, and routine grounders add up to a .216 batting average and feeble .566 OPS. Reference point: Martin Maldonado’s worst OPS season with the Astros was .573. If Bregman was a young guy handed a starting job coming out of spring training, if a viable alternative were available, there’s a chance he’d be a Sugar Land Space Cowboy right now. Bregman’s track record makes it a decent bet that he winds up with decent numbers, but nothing special. Certainly nothing remotely worth the 10 years 300 million dollars or whatever Bregman and agent Scott Boras intend(ed) to seek on the free agent market this coming offseason. Two hits Thursday did get Bregman to the 1000 hit plateau for his career.
Despite arriving south of the border with his batting average at .346, even Jose Altuve has his warts. With runners in scoring position, Altuve has one hit this season. One. In 16 at bats. Small sample size, but it counts. That’s .063. Yordan Alvarez has been no great shakes either, five for 24 (.208) with RISP.
One wonders what would happen if the Astros got a hold of and “lost” Jose Abreu’s passport/visa this weekend in Mexico City and Abreu couldn’t get back into the U.S. after the two-game set with the Rockies.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.