TWIN INSPIRED
Fred Faour: 8 tips and trends for this year's Kentucky Derby
May 3, 2018, 6:00 am
Justify will be trying to buck history at Churchill Downs. Andy Lyons/Getty Images
Here are some key trends and betting notes for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs (numbers compiled from several web sites including drf.com, oddshark.com and horseracingnation.com). If you want detailed breakdowns of every horse, you can find them here.
Chalk talk
Five straight favorites have won the Derby. The previous high was four in a row from 1972-75. There were no favorites winning the race from 1980-2000.
So why the change? This will be the sixth year of the points system, where races have weighted point values and the top 20 in points get in the race. This has eliminated cheap speed horses. During this five-favorite run, every winner has had at least 100 accumulated points. This year there are nine such horses: Magnum Moon 150, Good Magic 134, Audible 110, Noble Indy 110, Vino Rosso 107, Bolt d'Oro, 104, Enticed 103, Mendelssohn 100 and Justify 100.
Even with the five straight favorites, money can be made in the exotics. The last five exacta payoffs are $336, $31, $75, $340 and $982.
Trend setters
No horse that failed to race at age 2 has won the Derby since 1882. SInce then 61 horses have tried it. The two who came closest were Bodemeister (second, 2012) and Battle of Midway (third last year). Two serious contenders in this year’s race fit that profile: Favored Justify and Magnum Moon. Both are unbeaten.
Since 2011, every Derby winner won his final prep race.
Over the last 26 years, there have only been four Kentucky Derby winners whose final prep race was slower than 1:50.00 at nine furlongs. That would eliminate Good Magic and Noble Indy.
Nyquist (2016) and Street Sense (2007) are the only horses to win the BC Juvenile and then the Derby. Good Magic attempts to do it this year.
Long trip
No horse has prepped in Dubai and won the Derby. Mendelssohn won the UAE Derby by 18 lengths and is the only horse to run farther than 1 ⅛ miles. Horses trying this route are 0 for 13.
The Pletcher factor
Trainer Todd Pletcher has four serious contenders this year. Heading into this race he has 48 Derby starters but just two winners, including Always Dreaming last year. The theory is he tries so hard to win preps that his horses peak before the Derby. The exceptions were Super Saver (2010), who was also the last horse to win the Derby without winning his final prep (he was second in the Arkansas Derby but was not pushed that day). Always Dreaming peaked Derby Day and has done nothing since. Pletcher will likely have three of the top five favorites.
Other trainers
Bob Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas each have four Derby winners. Baffert last won the Derby in 2015 with Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. He has favored Justify. Lukas sends out 50-1 shot Bravazo.
Combatant has a shot to hit the board at 50-1
He has only one win in seven tries, but has hit the board in five of those races. Was fourth in debut on the turf, fourth in the Arkansas Derby in a paceless race where he could not close. Probably can’t win but good shot to hit the board at 50-1. He has a similar profile to last year’s Lookin’ at Lee. Got his only win at Churchill, so he has that going for him.
Another wiseguy longshot
Hofburg is 20-1 and has only three career races. He was fourth in his debut as a 2-year-old last September and did not run again until March 3, when he won a maiden race at Gulfstream. He was then thrown to the Wolves and was a good second in the Florida Derby. He should improve, and trainer Bill Mott does not run horses unless he thinks they have a shot.
Beyer beware
The average winning Beyer speed figure for the Derby is 105. Only two horses have topped the 100 mark more than once -- Justify (107, 101, 104) and Bolt D’Oro (102, 101, 103). Both colts accomplished this in California. Are the numbers inflated? There are only two other triple digit Beyers: Good Magic (100 in last year’s BC Juvenile) also run in California. Are the Cali horses better or are the numbers skewered?
Mendelssohn was given a 106 Beyer for his UAE Derby but Beyers are not typically done for overseas races.
When putting together your selections, make sure you pay attention to these trends and use them to your advantage. Good luck!
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While we wait to see whether the Texans get to avoid facing Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City Saturday, Houston and another "Show Me" state team popped into the news this week. There is irony in St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado exercising his no-trade clause to prevent him from being traded to the Astros. Obviously, Arenado sees the Astros as no longer the behemoth they were for several seasons. Well, neither is Arenado. The Astros were last an elite ballclub in 2022 (and have the World Series trophy to prove it). Arenado was last an elite player in 2022 when he finished third in National League Most Valuable Player Award voting. The Astros were still good the last two years though no longer special. Arenado was a little above mediocre in 2023 and plain mediocre in 2024. If he’s trying to squeeze additional money beyond the 74 million dollars left on the three years remaining on his contract in order to approve the trade, he’s in fantasyland. Arenado is highly overpaid at his level of performance the last two seasons. More reasonably, he’s probably hoping he can funnel himself to the Yankees, Mets, or Phillies, all of whom may be in the third baseman market, and all of whom are stronger looking organizations than the Astros project to be over the next three seasons. You probably can add the Red Sox to that list.
The purported terms of the deal the Astros had put the cart before the horse with the Cardinals had the Redbirds paying off some of Arenado’s deal to get rid of the rest of the money from their books, leaving the Astros on the hook for three years and 45 million dollars or so. Three years at 15 mil per for a guy in serious decline over the last two years and who turns 34 years old in April? No thanks. That would be bolting shut the door shut on Alex Bregman. Maybe that should read further bolting shut the door.
Consider the following, with which I made my Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast compadres recoil in horror this week:
In 2024 Nolan Arenado had 578 at bats and produced 39 extra base hits.
In 2023 Jose Abreu had 540 at bats and produced 42 extra base hits.
It’s not advanced calculus. The abysmal Abreu had fewer ABs than Arenado yet delivered more extra base hits. Check please! Granted, while Abreu was also generally feeble defensively at first base, Arenado is still a solid glove man at the hot corner, though not the guy who won Gold Gloves the first ten seasons of his career. But you get the point. The 2024 Astro most comparable offensively to Arenado for time played...Jon Singleton.
In the Kyle Tucker trade the Astros acquired Isaac Paredes who is best suited defensively to play third. The highest hope of return in the deal is Cam Smith, a third baseman by trade, though he may wind up at first base or in the outfield. There is also Brice Matthews to consider. Maybe Matthews winds up succeeding Jeremy Pena at shortstop. Or maybe he better projects as a third baseman.
Taking on three years of Arenado and blocking prospects would be silly. Moving him to first base would diminish his defensive value. At his 15 million dollar salary Arenado will make within a couple million of what Tucker projects to make in 2025 via salary arbitration. This with Arenado not half the player Tucker is presently. Although his offensive numbers are inflated from his eight seasons playing in the hitting haven that is Denver (career OPS at Coors Field is .982, everywhere else .795), Arenado is a very legitimate Hall of Fame candidate. He’s been a better player over his career than Bregman has been over his. But in neither 2023 nor 2024 was Arenado as good as Bregman. There’s little reason to think Arenado will be the better player in 2025. Obviously the pay grade would be significantly different but it would be an interesting (nicer word for it) look for the Astros to take on a declined player for his age 34, 35, and 36 seasons, while they got all squirrely over paying Kyle Tucker beyond his age 33 season (Tucker has six seasons to play before he turns 34). Arenado is one of numerous reasons why the Astros reasonably see it as stretching to the limit in offering Bregman six years through his age 36 season.
The Astros are trying to thread the needle of staying competitive (which doesn’t require excellence in the American League West) while ideally getting the payroll below the Competitive Balance Tax thresholds. It’s not as if Jim Crane is being a payroll cheapskate. The Astros presently project to be in the top eight in CBT payroll. The 2025 Astros will suffer because of the financial dead weights that are Abreu, Rafael Montero, and to large if not full extents Lance McCullers and Cristian Javier. At least neither the Mariners nor Rangers have done anything to their roster that moves the needle. They still could, but haven’t yet.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
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