OFF TO THE RACES
Fred Faour: First look at the 20-horse field for Saturday's Kentucky Derby
May 2, 2018, 2:36 pm
Justify is your 3-1 favorite for the Derby. Santaanita.com
Saturday is Derby Day, and if you get a chance go to Sam Houston Race Park to watch the races and come by and say hello. I will be in the ESPN VIP section. There will be a lot of content here over the next couple days. I will have a Derby trends story for SportsMap on Thursday, actual picks and plays (including my trfiecta) for Friday and hopefully a video as well for Thursday. For pregame.com, I will be doing a podcast with RJ Bell on Thursday and premium plays there on Friday as well.
For now, here is a breakdown of every horse in the race (betting number/post position is next to each horse's name):
1. FIRENZE FIRE
Trainer: Jason Servis
Jockey: Paco Lopez
Record: 9 starts, 4 wins, 1 second, 0 thirds.
Odds: 50-1
He will win if...He runs the race of his life. Showed some promise as a 2-year-old but is probably better as a sprinter/miler and it would take a career-best effort to even sniff the board.
2. FREE DROP BILLY
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Record: 8-2-3-2
Odds: 30-1
He will win if...He shows massive improvement. His first start of the year was solid, but has tailed off. Like the 1 horse, he showed promise as a 2-year-old. Might be primed for a big effort but likely a midpack finisher.
3. PROMISES FULFILLED
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Record: 5-3-0-1
Odds: 30-1
He will win if...He can wire this group. He is the speed of the race, and if you can toss his last effort he could hang around a long time. More likely he gets pressed by the likes of Justify and perhaps Flameaway and can’t handle the pressure for the full distance. But if the other speed fails to break he could last a while.
4. FLAMEAWAY
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Jose Lezcano
Record: 9-5-2-0
Odds: 30-1
He will win if...He can get an easy lead and run the race of his life, no easy feat considering the horse to his inside. He is a nice runner and usually gives his all but seems a little below the top tier and likely up against it from a pace standpoint.
5. AUDIBLE
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Record: 5-4-0-1
Odds: 8-1
He will win if...He can improve just a little, and he certainly can. Dominated the Florida preps for this and is going in the right direction. One of four Pletcher horses with a real shot, although jockey John Velazquez opted for another of Pletcher’s contenders. He has a real chance here.
6. GOOD MAGIC
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Record: 5-2-2-1
Odds: 12-1
He will win if...Brown, a terrific trainer, has him ready, and he very well could. The horse won the BC Juvenile to cap off a solid 2-year-old campaign. He flopped in his 3-year-old debut, but needed that race, and bounced back with a grind-it-out win in a slow Blue Grass Stakes. Will need to be better, but Brown has been pointing to this and should have him on go. Serious contender at a nice price.
7. JUSTIFY
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
Record: 3-3-0-0
Odds: 3-1
He will win if...He really is as good as he has looked in his three starts. He is incredibly fast, Baffert knows how to win Derbys (four) and the horse will be able to make his own luck. Still, he did not race at 2, and by now you have heard that horses that did not race as 2-year-olds have not won the Derby since 1882. He was also beating small fields in California, and will be tested here like never before. Short price is unappealing, but he will have to be dealt with.
8. LONE SAILOR
Trainer: Tom Amoss
Jockey: James Graham
Record: 8-1-3-1
Odds: 50-1
He will win if...He improves significantly and some of the big dogs fail to fire. He is a really nice, solid horse, but has yet to run anything good enough to win this. More likely he is in the mix for a minor award.
9. HOFBURG
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Record: 3-1-1-0
Odds: 20-1
He will win if...He takes a big step forward off his solid second in the Florida Derby. That was just his third race, and he ran very well. Mott is one of the most respected trainers in the business, and would not be here if he did not think the horse had a shot. Well bred to handle the distance. A live, sneaky long shot.
10. MY BOY JACK
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Record: 10-3-3-2
Odds: 30-1
He will win if...The race collapses and he gets the jump on the other closers. An interesting sort, he does not seem fast enough to win this, but could easily mess up the back end of the tris and superfectas. Another solid runner who might be in too deep, but would not be a shock for a minor award.
11. BOLT d’ORO
Trainer: Mick Ruis
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Record: 6-4-1-1
Odds: 8-1
He will win if...He improves off a strong second to Justify in the Santa Anita Derby. He was not cranked all the way up for that one, and Justify was able to coast to an easy lead, so he was up against it from a pace standpoint, too. Has yet to run a bad race, should be in the second flight early and should be sitting on a big one. Another serious contender.
12. ENTICED
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Record: 6-3-1-1
Odds: 30-1
He will win if...He gets a clean trip, improves a little and has things fall his way. Was a troubled second in the Wood, but has a stakes win at Churchill as a 2-year-old, a nice late kick and is battle tested. A live long shot.
13. BRAVAZO
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Luis Contreras
Record: 8-3-1-1
Odds: 50-1
He will win if...Lukas can find some old magic. This guy is a gutsy sort who won the Risen Star at Fair Grounds. Lukas horses have a tendency to improve out of nowhere. He will need to do that, because he just does not seem fast enough to compete with these.
14. MENDELSSOHN
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Record: 7-4-1-0
Odds: 5-1
He will win if...He can overcome the Dubai curse. No horse has prepped there and made much of an impact on the Derby. But this guy destroyed the UAE Derby field by almost 19 lengths, and also shipped over here to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at 2, so this is not new griound for him. He will be up close, and if he takes to Churchill and the travel was not too much, this should be the horse to end the Dubai drought.
15. INSTILLED REGARD
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke
Record: 7-2-2-1
Odds: 50-1
He will win if...He won’t. He really has not shown anything even remotely close to winning this. He should improve, but it would be a monumental upset if he had any impact at all.
16. MAGNUM MOON
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Luis Saez
Record: 4-4-0-0
Odds: 6-1
He will win if...He can overcome that 1882 bit that we mentioned with Justify. All four starts -- all wins -- have come at 3. He has looked sharp in his last two, but was able to set a slow pace in Arkansas and he won’t be able to do that here. Still, he can stalk a little as well. He drifted in the stretch of the Arkansas Derby and that kind of erratic behaviour can get you beat in Kentucky. Still, a contender.
17. SOLOMINI
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Record: 6-1-3-2
Odds: 30-1
He will win if...He can run his best race yet. Looked like one of the best 2-year-olds out there last year but has not had much luck chasing Magnum Moon at 3 and has not really improved. Will need a big move forward to turn the tables.
18. VINO ROSSO
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Record: 5-3-0-1
Odds: 12-1
He will win if...That win in the Wood Memorial was not a fluke. He had been close in stakes company at Tampa, but exploded when he went to New York. Was it a one-off? Jockey Velazquez had his choice between this one, Noble Indy and Audible, and he chose this guy. Still like the horse that finished second behind him in the Wood a little better but hard to ignore this guy.
19. NOBLE INDY
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Record: 4-3-0-1
Odds: 30-1
He will win if.... He improves significantly. He certainly could. The fourth Pletcher horse probably beat the weakest group to get here and has been the least impressive of all of them. But it’s also possible we have not seen his best race yet.
20. COMBATANT
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Record: 7-1-3-1
Odds: 50-1
He will win if...Well, let’s face it; he probably won’t. But this is the kind of horse I love as an exacta/trifecta back end kicker. His last race was better than it looks on paper, he has a habit of clunking up for second or third and the added distance should help with that. He reminds me a lot of Lookin’ at Lee, another Asmussen runner who did the same thing by running second last year. Love the 50-1 price and will be using him in my plays.
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Nick Chubb didn’t expect to be a Houston Texan. At least, not until he got the call on a quiet Saturday at home and was on a flight the next day. It happened fast — too fast, even, for the four-time Pro Bowler to fully process what it all meant. But now that he’s here, it’s clear this wasn’t a random landing spot. This was a calculated leap, one Chubb had been quietly considering from afar.
The reasons he chose Houston speak volumes not only about where Chubb is in his own career, but where the Texans are as a franchise.
For one, Chubb saw what the rest of the league saw the last two seasons: a young team turning the corner. He admired the Texans from a distance — the culture shift under head coach DeMeco Ryans, the explosive rise of C.J. Stroud, and the physical tone set by players like Joe Mixon. That identity clicked with Chubb. He’d been a fan of Ryans for years, and once he got in the building, everything aligned.
“I came here and saw a bunch of guys who like to work and not talk,” Chubb said. “And I realized I'm a perfect fit.”
As for his health, Chubb isn’t running from the injuries that cost him parts of the past two seasons, he’s owning them. But now, he says, they’re behind him. After a full offseason of training the way he always has — hitting his speed and strength benchmarks — Chubb says he’s feeling the best he has in years. He’s quick to remind people that bouncing back from major injuries, especially the one he suffered in 2023, is rarely a one-year journey. It takes time. He’s given it time.
Then there’s his fit with Mixon. The two aren’t just stylistic complements, they go way back. Same recruiting class, same reputation for running hard, same respect for each other’s games. Chubb remembers dreading matchups against the Bengals in Cleveland, worrying Mixon would take over the game. Now, he sees the opportunity in pairing up. “It’ll be us kinda doing that back-to-back against other defenses,” he said.
He’s also well aware of what C.J. Stroud brings to the table. Chubb watched Stroud nearly dismantle Georgia in the College Football Playoff. Then he saw it again, up close, when Stroud lit up the Browns in the postseason. “He torched us again,” Chubb said. Now, he gets to run alongside him, not against him.
Stroud made a point to welcome Chubb, exchanging numbers and offering support. It may seem like a small thing, but it’s the kind of leadership that helped sell Chubb on the Texans as more than just a good football fit — it’s a good locker room fit, too.
It appears the decision to come to Houston wasn’t part of some master plan. But in retrospect, it makes perfect sense. Chubb is a player with a no-nonsense work ethic, recovering from adversity, looking to write the next chapter of a career that’s far from over. And the Texans? They’re a team on the rise, built around guys who want to do the same.
You can watch the full interview in the video below.
And for those wondering how Joe Mixon feels about Nick Chubb, check out this video from last season. Let's just say he's a fan.
I’ve seen some speculation indicating that Joe Mixon may not be happy the Texans signed Nick Chubb. If that is what you believe, watch this clip from an interview with @greenlight pod last year & get back to me. pic.twitter.com/3vaip85esj
— Houston Stressans (@TexansCommenter) June 11, 2025
*ChatGPT assisted.
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