TRIPLE CROWN THREAT
Fred Faour: Picks and plays for Saturday's Belmont Stakes
Jun 7, 2018, 9:55 am
Can Justify win the Triple Crown? We are betting against it. Patrick Smith/Getty Images
Saturday’s Belmont Stakes will feature Justify attempting to become the 13th Triple Crown winner. He will face nine other mostly mediocre runners as he attempts to make history. A perfect 5-for-5 in his career, he will face a tough test trying to go a mile and a half.
The positives
He looks like the controlling pace of the race, and with that in mind he will be able to dictate to the others. That is a huge advantage. Unless a horse like Noble Indy pushes him early, he will have an easy trip.
He is still the most talented horse in the field. He regressed significantly in the Preakness, and still posted a 97 Beyer Speed figure. The only other horse to better that in any of his races is Vino Rosso, who posted a career-best 98 when he won the Wood Memorial. If Justify runs back to his prior numbers -- 103, 107, 101 and 104 -- he will be next to impossible to beat.
We might not have seen his best race yet. If that happens, he should roll.
His trainer, Bob Baffert, knows what it takes to win the Triple Crown, having done it with American Pharoah in 2015 after several near-misses.
The negatives
His Preakness regression might be a sign that he is wearing down. He has had a lot of races in a short time, and the distance of the Belmont might prove to be too much.
While he has solid breeding, it does not scream a mile and a half. Several others might be better suited.
Favorites do not do well in this race. In the last 15 runnings, only two favorites have won the race -- Triple Crown winner American Pharoah (2015) and Afleet Alex (2005).
The picks
With all that in mind, we will be taking a shot at beating Justify. We could still cash if he wins, but if he runs out of the money, we will clean up.
The horse I like to upset the field is Hofburg, who was a decent 7th in the Derby despite trouble. He is bred to get the distance, his trainer knows how to win big races and he should be well rested. He also is lightly raced and has every right to improve. He will need to in order to win this, but he should be sitting on a big effort. We will be playing him across the board and keyed in exactas with the key contenders.
Hofburg
Justify
Bravazo
Vino Rosso
Tenfold
The plays
Here are our trifecta plays. We will box the top five picks ($30 based on a .50 cent ticket). So a .50 trifecta box 1-3-4-7-8.
We will also key Hofburg and Bravazo 1-2 in the trifectas. If Justify runs out of the mix, we are looking at a nice score. So a .50 tri 3-4 with 1-3-4-7-8 with ALL, and 1-3-4-7-8 with 3-4 with ALL. That will be $32 per bet or $64 total.
Good luck on your wagers!
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Nick Chubb didn’t expect to be a Houston Texan. At least, not until he got the call on a quiet Saturday at home and was on a flight the next day. It happened fast — too fast, even, for the four-time Pro Bowler to fully process what it all meant. But now that he’s here, it’s clear this wasn’t a random landing spot. This was a calculated leap, one Chubb had been quietly considering from afar.
The reasons he chose Houston speak volumes not only about where Chubb is in his own career, but where the Texans are as a franchise.
For one, Chubb saw what the rest of the league saw the last two seasons: a young team turning the corner. He admired the Texans from a distance — the culture shift under head coach DeMeco Ryans, the explosive rise of C.J. Stroud, and the physical tone set by players like Joe Mixon. That identity clicked with Chubb. He’d been a fan of Ryans for years, and once he got in the building, everything aligned.
“I came here and saw a bunch of guys who like to work and not talk,” Chubb said. “And I realized I'm a perfect fit.”
As for his health, Chubb isn’t running from the injuries that cost him parts of the past two seasons, he’s owning them. But now, he says, they’re behind him. After a full offseason of training the way he always has — hitting his speed and strength benchmarks — Chubb says he’s feeling the best he has in years. He’s quick to remind people that bouncing back from major injuries, especially the one he suffered in 2023, is rarely a one-year journey. It takes time. He’s given it time.
Then there’s his fit with Mixon. The two aren’t just stylistic complements, they go way back. Same recruiting class, same reputation for running hard, same respect for each other’s games. Chubb remembers dreading matchups against the Bengals in Cleveland, worrying Mixon would take over the game. Now, he sees the opportunity in pairing up. “It’ll be us kinda doing that back-to-back against other defenses,” he said.
He’s also well aware of what C.J. Stroud brings to the table. Chubb watched Stroud nearly dismantle Georgia in the College Football Playoff. Then he saw it again, up close, when Stroud lit up the Browns in the postseason. “He torched us again,” Chubb said. Now, he gets to run alongside him, not against him.
Stroud made a point to welcome Chubb, exchanging numbers and offering support. It may seem like a small thing, but it’s the kind of leadership that helped sell Chubb on the Texans as more than just a good football fit — it’s a good locker room fit, too.
It appears the decision to come to Houston wasn’t part of some master plan. But in retrospect, it makes perfect sense. Chubb is a player with a no-nonsense work ethic, recovering from adversity, looking to write the next chapter of a career that’s far from over. And the Texans? They’re a team on the rise, built around guys who want to do the same.
You can watch the full interview in the video below.
And for those wondering how Joe Mixon feels about Nick Chubb, check out this video from last season. Let's just say he's a fan.
I’ve seen some speculation indicating that Joe Mixon may not be happy the Texans signed Nick Chubb. If that is what you believe, watch this clip from an interview with @greenlight pod last year & get back to me. pic.twitter.com/3vaip85esj
— Houston Stressans (@TexansCommenter) June 11, 2025
*ChatGPT assisted.
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