TRIPLE CROWN THREAT
Fred Faour: Picks and plays for Saturday's Belmont Stakes
Jun 7, 2018, 9:55 am
Can Justify win the Triple Crown? We are betting against it. Patrick Smith/Getty Images
Saturday’s Belmont Stakes will feature Justify attempting to become the 13th Triple Crown winner. He will face nine other mostly mediocre runners as he attempts to make history. A perfect 5-for-5 in his career, he will face a tough test trying to go a mile and a half.
The positives
He looks like the controlling pace of the race, and with that in mind he will be able to dictate to the others. That is a huge advantage. Unless a horse like Noble Indy pushes him early, he will have an easy trip.
He is still the most talented horse in the field. He regressed significantly in the Preakness, and still posted a 97 Beyer Speed figure. The only other horse to better that in any of his races is Vino Rosso, who posted a career-best 98 when he won the Wood Memorial. If Justify runs back to his prior numbers -- 103, 107, 101 and 104 -- he will be next to impossible to beat.
We might not have seen his best race yet. If that happens, he should roll.
His trainer, Bob Baffert, knows what it takes to win the Triple Crown, having done it with American Pharoah in 2015 after several near-misses.
The negatives
His Preakness regression might be a sign that he is wearing down. He has had a lot of races in a short time, and the distance of the Belmont might prove to be too much.
While he has solid breeding, it does not scream a mile and a half. Several others might be better suited.
Favorites do not do well in this race. In the last 15 runnings, only two favorites have won the race -- Triple Crown winner American Pharoah (2015) and Afleet Alex (2005).
The picks
With all that in mind, we will be taking a shot at beating Justify. We could still cash if he wins, but if he runs out of the money, we will clean up.
The horse I like to upset the field is Hofburg, who was a decent 7th in the Derby despite trouble. He is bred to get the distance, his trainer knows how to win big races and he should be well rested. He also is lightly raced and has every right to improve. He will need to in order to win this, but he should be sitting on a big effort. We will be playing him across the board and keyed in exactas with the key contenders.
Hofburg
Justify
Bravazo
Vino Rosso
Tenfold
The plays
Here are our trifecta plays. We will box the top five picks ($30 based on a .50 cent ticket). So a .50 trifecta box 1-3-4-7-8.
We will also key Hofburg and Bravazo 1-2 in the trifectas. If Justify runs out of the mix, we are looking at a nice score. So a .50 tri 3-4 with 1-3-4-7-8 with ALL, and 1-3-4-7-8 with 3-4 with ALL. That will be $32 per bet or $64 total.
Good luck on your wagers!
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
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