The Kentucky Derby is Saturday. Kentuckyderby.com
Saturday’s Derby should be a highly entertaining, competitive race. Justify is the 3-1 favorite, and he has a lot of promise. However, there are a lot of reasons to bet against him. No horse has won the Derby without starting as a 2-year-old since 1882. He has not raced outside of California. And he has raced against small fields. Now, he is fast enough that he won’t know there are 15 or so horses behind him. But he will also face serious pace pressure for the first time in his life.
I think the winner comes from nine horses: the 5-6-7-9-11-12-14-16-18-20. Of those, I like Bolt D’Oro the best and will be betting him across the board, in exactas with the other contenders and will also attack the trifecta in three different ways.
The picks:
No. 11 Bolt D’oro -- Battle tested, should love the distance and could turn the tables on Justify.
No. 12 Enticed -- A troubled second in the Wood, he is also bred to love the distance and could be in the mix at a price.
No. 20 Combatant -- Can’t win, but should clunk up for a piece late at a monster price.
No. 7 Justify -- Could win this, but plenty of reasons to play against.
The other contenders: No. 14 Mendelssohn, No. 9 Hofburg, No. 5 Audible.
The contenders who could struggle or surprise: No. 16 Magnum Moon, No. 18 Vino Rossi.
We will have two trifecta plays. One will key Bolt D’Oro first and second. The other will key Combatant second and third. We can conceivably hit them both. They are available in .50 increments. If you can only afford one, go with the first one:
First tri:
11 with 5-7-9-12-14 with 5-6-7-9-10-12-14-16-18-20
5-7-9-12-14 with 11 with 5-6-7-9-10-12-14-16-18-20
In .50 increments, that will be $45.
Second tri:
5-7-9-11-12-14 with 20 with 5-6-7-9-10-11-12-14-16-18
5-7-9-11-12-14 with 5-6-7-9-10-11-12-14-16-18 with 20
This will cost $54 in .50 increments.
For Friday's Oaks, we will do an exacta box with the 5-10-13-14.
You can find breakdowns on every horse here.
Last year, we went 1-for-3 on Triple Crown trifectas, ending a nice stretch of 9 out of 12. On a confidence level of 1-10, I would say this is a 6. If you are at Sam Houston Race Park, swing by the ESPN VIP area and say hello. Good luck on your wagers!
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Oswald Peraza hit a two-run single in the ninth inning to help the Los Angeles Angels snap a three-game losing skid by beating the Houston Astros 4-1 on Saturday night.
Peraza entered the game as a defensive replacement in the seventh inning and hit a bases-loaded fly ball to deep right field that eluded the outstretched glove of Cam Smith. It was the fourth straight hit off Astros closer Bryan Abreu (3-4), who had not allowed a run in his previous 12 appearances.
The Angels third run of the ninth inning scored when Mike Trout walked with the bases loaded.
Kyle Hendricks allowed one run while scattering seven hits over six innings. He held the Astros to 1 for 8 with runners in scoring position, the one hit coming on Jesús Sánchez’s third-inning infield single that scored Jeremy Peña.
Reid Detmers worked around a leadoff walk to keep the Astros scoreless in the seventh, and José Fermin (3-2) retired the side in order in the eighth before Kenley Jansen worked a scoreless ninth to earn his 24th save.
Houston’s Spencer Arrighetti struck out a season-high eight batters over 6 1/3 innings. The only hit he allowed was Zach Neto’s third-inning solo home run.
Yordan Alvarez had two hits for the Astros, who remained three games ahead of Seattle for first place in the AL West.
Key moment
Peraza’s two-run single to deep right field that broke a 1-1 tie in the ninth.
Key Stat
Opponents were 5 for 44 against Abreu in August before he allowed four straight hits in the ninth.
Up next
Astros RHP Hunter Brown (10-6, 2.37 ERA) faces RHP José Soriano (9-9, 3.85) when the series continues Sunday.