The Kentucky Derby is Saturday. Kentuckyderby.com
Saturday’s Derby should be a highly entertaining, competitive race. Justify is the 3-1 favorite, and he has a lot of promise. However, there are a lot of reasons to bet against him. No horse has won the Derby without starting as a 2-year-old since 1882. He has not raced outside of California. And he has raced against small fields. Now, he is fast enough that he won’t know there are 15 or so horses behind him. But he will also face serious pace pressure for the first time in his life.
I think the winner comes from nine horses: the 5-6-7-9-11-12-14-16-18-20. Of those, I like Bolt D’Oro the best and will be betting him across the board, in exactas with the other contenders and will also attack the trifecta in three different ways.
The picks:
No. 11 Bolt D’oro -- Battle tested, should love the distance and could turn the tables on Justify.
No. 12 Enticed -- A troubled second in the Wood, he is also bred to love the distance and could be in the mix at a price.
No. 20 Combatant -- Can’t win, but should clunk up for a piece late at a monster price.
No. 7 Justify -- Could win this, but plenty of reasons to play against.
The other contenders: No. 14 Mendelssohn, No. 9 Hofburg, No. 5 Audible.
The contenders who could struggle or surprise: No. 16 Magnum Moon, No. 18 Vino Rossi.
We will have two trifecta plays. One will key Bolt D’Oro first and second. The other will key Combatant second and third. We can conceivably hit them both. They are available in .50 increments. If you can only afford one, go with the first one:
First tri:
11 with 5-7-9-12-14 with 5-6-7-9-10-12-14-16-18-20
5-7-9-12-14 with 11 with 5-6-7-9-10-12-14-16-18-20
In .50 increments, that will be $45.
Second tri:
5-7-9-11-12-14 with 20 with 5-6-7-9-10-11-12-14-16-18
5-7-9-11-12-14 with 5-6-7-9-10-11-12-14-16-18 with 20
This will cost $54 in .50 increments.
For Friday's Oaks, we will do an exacta box with the 5-10-13-14.
You can find breakdowns on every horse here.
Last year, we went 1-for-3 on Triple Crown trifectas, ending a nice stretch of 9 out of 12. On a confidence level of 1-10, I would say this is a 6. If you are at Sam Houston Race Park, swing by the ESPN VIP area and say hello. Good luck on your wagers!
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
Michael Wacha scattered four hits over six innings, Vinnie Pasquantino homered and the Kansas City Royals beat the Houston Astros 2-0 for the second straight night Saturday to run their winning streak to six.
Wacha (1-3) once again received little run support, but the veteran right-hander made the meager production stand up on chilly evening at Kauffman Stadium. He struck out six while walking two and never allowed a runner past second base.
Steven Cruz worked the seventh for Kansas City, his seventh appearance this season without allowing a run. John Schreiber left runners on the corners in the eighth, and Carlos Estévez had a perfect ninth for his seventh save.
Bobby Witt Jr. doubled and scored in the first inning for the Royals, extending his career-best hitting streak to 18 games.
Framber Valdez (1-3) gave up a sacrifice fly to Mark Canha in the first inning and Pasquantino's shot down the right-field line in the fifth. Otherwise, the Astros left-hander kept Kansas City in check, allowing three hits and two walks over eight innings.
Valdez had tossed seven shutout innings against the Royals last August in a 3-2 victory.
The Astros, who have lost five straight at the K, have managed just nine hits while getting shut out over the first two games of the series. They had rolled into Kansas City having won three straight and five of their last six games.
Key moment
Isaac Parades hit a two-out double and Jeremy Peña followed with a single to give Houston runners on the corners in the eighth inning. Schreiber bounced back to strike out Christian Walker with a four-seam fastball to end the threat.
Key stat
The Royals have only scored seven runs in the 32 innings that Wacha has pitched this season.
Up next
RHP Hunter Brown (3-1, 1.16) tries to extend a 24-inning scoreless streak for Houston in the series finale Sunday. LHP Kris Bubic (2-1, 1.45) gets the start for Kansas City after tossing seven shutout innings against the Rockies his last time out.