The Kentucky Derby is Saturday. Kentuckyderby.com
Saturday’s Derby should be a highly entertaining, competitive race. Justify is the 3-1 favorite, and he has a lot of promise. However, there are a lot of reasons to bet against him. No horse has won the Derby without starting as a 2-year-old since 1882. He has not raced outside of California. And he has raced against small fields. Now, he is fast enough that he won’t know there are 15 or so horses behind him. But he will also face serious pace pressure for the first time in his life.
I think the winner comes from nine horses: the 5-6-7-9-11-12-14-16-18-20. Of those, I like Bolt D’Oro the best and will be betting him across the board, in exactas with the other contenders and will also attack the trifecta in three different ways.
The picks:
No. 11 Bolt D’oro -- Battle tested, should love the distance and could turn the tables on Justify.
No. 12 Enticed -- A troubled second in the Wood, he is also bred to love the distance and could be in the mix at a price.
No. 20 Combatant -- Can’t win, but should clunk up for a piece late at a monster price.
No. 7 Justify -- Could win this, but plenty of reasons to play against.
The other contenders: No. 14 Mendelssohn, No. 9 Hofburg, No. 5 Audible.
The contenders who could struggle or surprise: No. 16 Magnum Moon, No. 18 Vino Rossi.
We will have two trifecta plays. One will key Bolt D’Oro first and second. The other will key Combatant second and third. We can conceivably hit them both. They are available in .50 increments. If you can only afford one, go with the first one:
First tri:
11 with 5-7-9-12-14 with 5-6-7-9-10-12-14-16-18-20
5-7-9-12-14 with 11 with 5-6-7-9-10-12-14-16-18-20
In .50 increments, that will be $45.
Second tri:
5-7-9-11-12-14 with 20 with 5-6-7-9-10-11-12-14-16-18
5-7-9-11-12-14 with 5-6-7-9-10-11-12-14-16-18 with 20
This will cost $54 in .50 increments.
For Friday's Oaks, we will do an exacta box with the 5-10-13-14.
You can find breakdowns on every horse here.
Last year, we went 1-for-3 on Triple Crown trifectas, ending a nice stretch of 9 out of 12. On a confidence level of 1-10, I would say this is a 6. If you are at Sam Houston Race Park, swing by the ESPN VIP area and say hello. Good luck on your wagers!
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Jalen Green scored 34 points, Alperen Sengun had 20 points, nine rebounds and eight assists and the Houston Rockets beat the short-handed Denver Nuggets 128-108 on Wednesday night.
Green, who hit six 3-pointers, continued his recent scoring surge. He is averaging 32 points in Houston's last six games, including a career-best 42 points against Memphis on Monday.
Fred VanVleet added 16 points, eight assists and three steals for the Rockets, who beat Denver for the fifth time in six meetings.
The Nuggets were without two of their five leading scorers in reigning league MVP Nikola Jokic (right elbow inflammation) and Aaron Gordon (right calf injury).
Jamal Murray and Christian Braun each scored 22 point for Denver, which had 18 turnovers in the loss, including five apiece from its starting backcourt of Murray and Russell Westbrook.
Takeaways
Rockets: Houston won its fifth in a row and improved to 10-3 in its last 13 games to solidify its standing as the No. 2 team in the Western Conference.
Nuggets: Denver, which had won eight of its previous 10 games, absorbed its most lopsided defeat since a 145-118 loss to the New York Knicks on Nov. 25.
Key moment
Houston opened the second quarter on an 8-2 run that was capped off by a corner 3 by former Nugget Jeff Green that stretched the Rockets' lead to 11 points. Houston outscored Denver 41-25 in the period to take a 69-48 lead into halftime.
Key stat
The loss was Denver’s eighth in 20 home games this season, matching the Nuggets’ home loss total across 41 regular-season games in 2023-24.
Up next
Houston continues its three-game road swing Thursday at Sacramento. The Nuggets are back in action Friday at the Miami Heat.